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Monday, December 27, 2010

Post Christmas storm results

8am Danbury - not an impressive snowfall - went to bed at 10 last night, had 11 inches. Just measured now - its almost impossible. Non obstructed measurements ranged from 30 inches to 0. I'm going with 14", despite the "official" 6am measurement was 11.5 at the airport.

What was truly impressive was the wind and its effect on the snow. Three of my first floor windows are partially to fully covered in drifts. Drifts of up to or more than 4 feet surround the house. My driveway, which is sunk into the ground by 4 feet or so is nearly full, which is bad, bad news.

The weatherstripping around a basement window blew in, along with a few inches of snow. The garage, which has a few gaps around the doors, has a few inches of snow inside. I've never seen that before.

The wind is continually pounding the house. My OS weather station routinely under reports windgusts (I'm updating to Davis soon I hope) In the three years I've had the station, I've only had one gust over 30mph. But now they are frequently in excess of 30mph. The ASOS report in Danbury had a gust to 60mph.

Pressure bottomed out at 988, which is not a record, but pretty impressive considering I'm 150 miles from the storm. Temps were frigid, holding in the teens for most of the storm.

So I'm not sure what happened with the snow between 10 last nite and 8 this morning - it looked like we were setup for another foot, it either blew away, or just didn't happen.

Final report - 19 degrees, winds at 19mph gusting at 32 with light snow.

See you next storm.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Christmas storm (or the day after)

12-26 - NWS has all of the NYC forecast area in a Blizzard warning - expecting 15-20 inches. Started snowing around 11am, very light. As of 1pm (see pic), only an inch.





Latest GFS precip map




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12/24 night - 18z runs of Nam and GFS concurred with the 12z gfs. MEts were throwing that run out as well due to bad data. Well I guess the data was bad for the 0z run of the NAm as well. The blue line goes all the way back to just west of the NY Thruway, with Danbury in the 6-10 inch range, or more. Crazy - East Mass is progged for 3" qpf. If that stayed all snow, even with a 8:1 ratio, its at least 24".

Nam has 972 on the BM, with the next spot a 964 low on the Cape. Astounding. Wondering when the NWS will pull the trigger on this instead of making excuses. Or are they trying to drive us nuts!

18z gfs ens have low inside bm, weighted west.

12/24 - afternoon

0z gfs had a nice run with us on the western edge with 6-10 inches
0z euro had placement of low just grazing the BM, but did not put out any liquid.
6 z GFS shifted east
12z GFS crushed us - see pic
12z Euro pushed further east of BM, by about 100 miles
NAM runs started off only major precip 200 miles east. 6z had the blue line on Cape Cod. 12z had the blue line back to Boston
JMA for the first time takes the storm over the BM
12z GFS ens were inside the BM
SREF ens are inside the BM with heavy spread bias west
CMC trended way west - from being 400 miles offshore to 200 miles with bulk of precip. CMC ensembles are pulling almost to the BM

So the consensus would be the adamant OTS models are shifting west, but not enough to affect NYC. The GfS may be messed up, as many are saying it did created a vort max too early.



12/23 - 0z run back on track with .5 precip NYC east to the Cape where its 1.75.

early afternoon

Models trending away

0z gfs had us in the 3-6 inch range
6z gfs pushed back into 6-10 inch range
12z gfs - ots - nada, but some flurries on Christmas nite
0z Euro knocks down to about a foot, perhaps 15 inches - no longer stalls south of li and just plows straight north, inside BM.
12z euro goes from OBX to CCOD, a tad further east. Looks like a decent track, but there is only .01 in precip
All nam runs look OTS
UKMET - OTS
JMA pulled west, but not enough to hit us
DGEX pulled west, but not enought to hit us.
CMA - out to lunch. Doesn't even have a storm













12/21 - now its the day after the day after Christmas.

Low and behold, the GFS blinked. Its 12z and 18z precip runs are right off the coast, within 150 miles of the Euro. Precip images are above. GFS goes to a 976 low, but SE of the BM. Total snow of 2-4 inches

Euro 12z brings it to the mouth of the Delaware and to a 972 low (other sources had 968). Precip for DXR is 1.48, BDL is 1.52. Looking at the 850 temps of under -10C, there would be a lot of fluff, 15 inches per inch of liquid, for close to two feet in most of CT. Mixing should not be an issue either. Winds of 60-70 mph would hit ACK and perhaps the Cape. This situation looks so bad, it can't possibly happen.

Both models have a sharp right turn east south of long island.

While the models tracks are now within 150-200 miles, timing is still an issue. Euro has it snowing in NYC from 0z sunday to 12z tuesday. GFS moves in around 18z sunday and leaves by 12 z monday. Other example, GFS reaches the latitude of ACY at 3z monday. Euro is in the same spot 0z tuesday, almost a day behind.

Other models
JMA - out to sea
Nogaps - out to sea
DGEX - out to sea
UKMET - similar to the 18z GFS - puts a low too deep to register (I see at least a 97X) off OBX at 12z, so its track is like the gfs, but its stronger and slower.
CMC - bouncing around between the euro and the 18z GFs, 0z at BM but the 12z run is way out there giving us nothing

GFS Ensembles - bring the mean barely se of bm. The deepest spread is NW and there seem to be more members leaning west. Precip still at .25-.5, more than the operational.

Euro ensemble mean is east of the operational, with a heavy spread to the WNW.











12/21 - Midday (should be only post) - above are GFS precip maps, 12z Euro and 12z CMC

0z gfs has 1.25-1.5 in precip - beginning Sat morn with it maxing out at 984 just south of LI Sunday afternoon at 984mb. It stalls awhile after that and stops snowing at 156hr Mon morn

6z GFS has under .1 precip, ots to our south. It too has a 984 low a bit further south of LI, but the northern precip really doesn't make it to us.

12z GFS .01-.1 precip, ots to our south. It has flurries on Christmas. 1004 low off VA/NC going way out and improving.

0z Euro has .75-.1 precip with a 970 low going up the coast until Ocean county when it stalls and heads east. Precip looks too light based on that track. Snow not starting until 1pm Sunday/

12z Euro has 1.39 precip with it falling mostly Sun nite thru Monday. It parks a 968 Low right off the NJ coast and spins it out for 48 hrs. Truly amazing to see this - precip is still likely underdone, and with cold enough air, two feet is likely.

0z UKMet - out to sea
12z UKMEt 144 hr (Mon morn) has huge storm blowing up off OBX. May still go out, but not looking like it.

DGEX - out to sea
NOgaps - OTS
Canadian GGEM - similar to Euro. No precip estimates yet. The 0z run took it a little too far inland for my liking, but the 12z corrected east. Like the Euro, it stalls the system. I want to say I counted 54 hrs of snow out of it!

I would speculate that the GFS isn't seeing the northern branch energy coming in yet. Now the Euro is notorious for dragging its heels on systems coming out of the SW, which may explain the 1 day difference. But with the GEM and UKMET having the same look, it may be only slightly delayed.

If you discount the GFS, we have a major snowstorm starting Sunday and lasting through Monday. To be measured in feet.




12-20 evening



Posting above the 18z dgex which shows a 970 low off the coast of NJ . Its timing is slower, not starting until Sunday. The snow map that goes with it has over 15 inches in the tristate area.

The euro is a bit further east and faster now, but just as strong and still delivers snow. Its got 3-6 on the 12z run, compared to 6-12 earlier (and some areas had up to two feet). The ensemble spread is to the nw, but not by much.

GFS 18z run has over a foot in NE NJ and Westchester, with widespread 6-12 elsewhere. Light precip starts early Christmas day, but doesn't become heavy until night. The ensembles are out to sea though, with only 1-3 inches. The spread there is to the west. Odd to see the operational that far to the west, and not a good sign.

UKMEt 12 z never tilts the trough negative and closes off the upper low over PA, which normally is good, but it looks like the surface low escapes. But it only goes out to 144.

















12-20 mid afternoon

Map of Euro solution and the precip map from GFS are above.

Looks like snow on the 26th, but just a matter of how much.

Euro solid on, a little too far west for us with the ensembles and their spread is to the north. Operational has a 980 low parked just south of LI by 0z 1/27. So its timing is more on the 26th than on Christmas

CMC - 0z brings a 993 Low off Delmarva at 144hr (8pm Christmas night). 12z run shoves it off to sea, whitening VA and NC.

DGEX puts 994 low off NJ by Christmas night, but heads it straight out, brushing CT.

UKMEt looks out to sea at 144hr

JMA - out to sea

GFS oz brings low out NC/VA border by 7am Christmas, only intensifies to a 992 just barely se of the bm by 7am the 26th, brushing the area with snow, but heavier in S NJ.

6z almost same track, a little slower and at 984 by the BM. Oddly, snow stretches back into all of NJ, but stays south of CT

12z low hits NC/VA coast 1pm on Christmas, heads out east a bit, then turns due north, over bm at 980 by 12z Sun. Results in fair amount of snow - 3-6 inches in NYC area, more in NE CT.




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12-20

A day behind, but there is a chance for our real first snowfall to occur within 24 hrs of Christmas. GFS has been on this for all its runs, no switching between 6 & 18 v. 0 and 12. Euro is on board too. UKMET looks like its headed in this direction.

Posted are the GFS and EURO models. GFS precip is about 1-1.25 inches, so sizable snow, if indeed it falls as all snow. JMA suppresses the storm too, which is only interesting because its the only model who didn't crush the NE with snow today. Although, it did forecast a small amount.

Big fear of mine is that the storm phases too early, becomes to strong and brings in warmer air. Resulting in a snow-rain-snow combination.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Pre Christmas storm(s) 12-19 tp 12-23

12-20 - post mortem - this was the day it was supposed to hit. After witnessing model flip flops from way ots to 30 inches in Millville and 26 inches at LGA, storm ended up out to sea, clipping cape cod. The major factor I saw was lack of energy - no vort maxes, jetstreaks or other upper air dynamics to really crank the storm. Instead, reliance on the warmer ocean, which resulted in the storm not even forming until it was already ots. No model fared well - likely due to the lack of energy. The pressure spreads across the country ranged from 1008 to 1020 - and it was fair here with pressure of 1007. It took until Friday, two days before, for the models to finally lock on an out to sea solution. If I had to pick a winner, it was either the GGEm or the JMA. Onto the next debacle

12-15

Busy day, not much time to post. Summary: 0z, 6z gfs shifted out to sea. All other 0z models, including ukmet now out to sea. 12z gfs pulled back just offshore getting most of the area. 18 z gfs pulled east, with just sne and ccod getting creamed as the storm stalls. Oddly, the 12z GEM came on board with the 12z gfs. The euro still stayed fairly consistent, perhaps a bit east crossing 40n at 65w. Most models do agree with the storm stalling at one point, its just a matter of where.

Interestingly, the ensembles for the GFS and Euro have a strong westward bias, so there is still plenty of debate going on there. But losing the ukmet, which had been consistent over the last few days, and not having much of a shift in the euro is not encouraging for a major snowstorm.

The problem I see is not with the upper pattern setup as the pv is fading west and there is some ridging off the coast. I just don't see any energy in the flow, and the storm forms mostly at sea. The trough goes negative as the low forms off NC on the 18z gfs. But its only a 1008 low (which is the pressure today and it was fair.)









12-14 afternoon
Models mostly shift west, except cmc and jma, which continue their straight ots. UKmet is very close, if not at BM. Euro is a degree east, but has shifted westward.

GFS has an all out 20 inch blizzard - see above. And it sits the storm there 24 hrs

12-14 Morning
All models look ots for the 0z runs. GFS ensembles are pulling west with spread, euro pulling sw with spread, cmc is light in spread and ots. The GFS and CMC ensembles each produce 3 inches of snow as is for this area, more to the east.
All operationals are out sea, but not by that much and will likely correct west with time, assuming they strengthen the storm.
Euro is at 68/40 6z sun
0z and 6z gfs is at 64/40 9z and 15z mon - much less amplified than euro
ukmet has the low moving from west NC at 96, due east to 72/35 at 120 - 144 looks to take it due north though
dgex doesn't even have a storm until way out to sea


12-13 afternoon summary
GFS - 0z,6z and 18z have all out blizzard for northern fairfield
Euro - 12z yesterday had blizzard, 0z today way out to sea, 12z just grazes just east of BM
UKMET - only up to 144, but has it in the carolinas by then heading our way - may be too warm
JMA - out to sea, but yesterday had big storm
CMA - morning out to sea, afternoon OBX to CCOd
dgex - just misses east

Fun! At least there is some consistency




12-13

0z GFS run has massive snowstorm pre Christmas, from hrs about 160-216, all snow and heavy.
Yesterdays 12z Euro run supported this, as did the JMA. But the 0z Euro loses it None of the other GFS runs yesterday supported this, with only southern sliders out to sea. Total output for the 60 hours ending 216 is 1.75 inches. UKMET may support as it has a strong southern low, but only goes to 144. DGEX supports idea of massive storm, but takes it to our East ots.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Snow, where are you?

12-20 - still no snow beyond the inch we got on the 13th. There is a chance for another minor event on the 22nd. 8-12 hr of light snow, nothing major, but if we can get the plows out...

12-10 Last two days below 30. Last five days, one day above 32 (and that was 34 for a few minutes in a brisk wind). While its cold, still no snow - expecting flurries or snow shower later. Weekend system will warm things up and rain, with chance of snow before and after. Our low so far out of this cold snap is 10 (8 at DXR).

12-6 Today was the first day we didn't break 32. With snow flurries, all the way to NYC. Parts of CT picked up 4-5" of lake effect, which is rare, and it stayed in place almost all day.

We do have a shot for light accumulating snow on Fri/Sat with a weak clipper. That system will determine the path of the following one, which is posted below. Doubtful it would be plowable though.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Still waiting for hints of first snow 12/12-14?

12-9 - towel thrown in on this storm, lucky if we get a bit of snow on the front and back, snow showers if this intensifies as the mets say.



12/8

I wasn't going to post anymore for this storm unless things changed. Well, today, overall, it still looks like rain. But I wanted to post the differences in the models for a storm 96 hrs away. Examples will be today's 0z Euro has a 988 low off delmarva and 12z Euro has a 992 low near Buffalo. Then there is the 18 z gfs showing a 1000 low over nyc and later a secondary off the coast, with the r/s line over nw ct v. 12z gfs showing a 976 low, 12hrs later, over nyc, v the 0z run which pulls a 980 low up through w. pa and w. ny.

So our options are euro, either chicago to montreal, or tn to binghamton
GFS - run up north through w pa (988), KY to DXR (976), raleigh to nyc (976), or disorganized to 1000mb over ny, then secondary up the coast. what a mess.

Meanwhile, the ukmet puts a 980 low over E NC at 120 and brings up the coast (0zrun) or brings a 984 low from AL to Chesapeke bay on the 12z run

DGEX morning run goes like the ukmet, then the afternoon, it brings it through like a front, but then bombs out south of LI and over into CT at sub 960!

The only consistent model is the CMC, which has a low forming over the OH valley, moving into PA and heading north - its only off by about 300 miles between runs.

JMA still has straight shot from KY to just South of NYC - its shifted the r/s line a little east from yesterday, but is also consistent.



12/8

I wasn't going to post anymore for this storm unless things changed. Well, today, overall, it still looks like rain. But I wanted to post the differences in the models for a storm 96 hrs away. Examples will be today's 0z Euro, 12z Euro


12/6 - 0z Euro had the storm in W PA and NY. 12z through Michigan. It was an outlier with the CMA, JMA, DGEX and GFS (0z, 6z, and 12z) runs taking the storm either right over us or just to our east. Then, the 18z GFS shifted west into PA, with no hint of a secondary. So the challenge is does the northern energy take over and it cuts or does it transfer to the coast. The image to the right is the euro which still shows a hint of a southern secondary forming.

All ensembles still hold out hope for this to make it to the coast though. Most bloggers have abandoned the idea of snow from this storm.
This will be the last post unless the storm corrects south or east, but they rarely do.

breaking - 18z dgex concedes western path

As I posted previously, its gonna be that type of winter

12/5 - 0z and 12z Euro showing storm track on Monday to be just to the west of us. Snow, turning to rain. CMC agrees, has more snow on Sat, but also stays colder, even though storm turns north just to the west of us.

Gfs 0z had one storm coming through sat/sun, then another bombing off the coast on Mon with significant snow

6z - minor snow on Sat, then bomb off coast, a bit further east than 0z.

12z - minor snow Sat, then bomb, a bit further east than 6z

18z - still minor snow Sat, but the bomb doesn't go off until way out to sea. But the northern energy will bring some minor snow monday.

12/3

Lets start with the Euro. Todays 0z run had a nice storm forming over the SE, no clipper. The 12z has nothing but brutally cold air.

0z GFS - Storm slides off SE, but clipper comes in behind on the 14th
6z GFS - Weak clipper comes through
12z GFS Weak clipper strengthens as it comes through
18z - nada

CMA - brings weak low across country and explodes over us. Borderline rain/snow.



12/2 - 0z gfs - nothing but a weak clipper for the 12th, then it warms up too much for any snow in the rest of the run.
6z run has an insane 968 low heading to cape cod on the 13th 14th (see pic)
12z run has weak clipper headed right over us, but cold enough for a little snow
18z run phases northern and southern stream right off the coast on the 12th, to a 988 low just off cape cod, giving a few inches.

12z Euro is coming in at 240, looking similar to the 18z run of the gfs, but slower and phasing inland, perhaps so far inland it cuts eventually to lakes. It keeps the clipper stronger and absorbs the southern stream . But this would result in front end snow, even if it turns to rain.

So two models on board with some kinda snow 12-14 of december.


First storm chance 12/13 (if the 12/5 storm goes out to sea)




12/1 - the cold front is approaching - so far a 22mph gust knocked some branches off the tree next door. Otherwise, we are not getting snow for the 2nd.

Latest model runs also either lose or drill south the clipper type storm for the 5th. They do bomb it out just to our east, but only this mornings euro run shows any snow, and thats down around VA.

There is another shortwave coming into CA on Sunday, which the Euro loses, but the GFS brings south into the gulf and way out to sea up the east coast on the 8th/9th.

The GFS does have, and has had this on the last few runs, a nice storm blowing up just off NJ for the 13th. Its looks like a combo of a clipper coming south and a system moving north. It brings it up to the west of CCod and bombs to a 982 low. Then fuels another one on the 15th, just missing us out to sea. And then another shortwave comes through on the 16th.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

First plowable snow

11-26 0z run of euro at 232 does show snow on the ground for 12/5. Looks like a waa event, again.
6z gfs shows the same storm sliding south of us, then getting blocked out at sea and coming west, to give us up to 10" on the 6th, but I gotta say that looks weird. The first plowable snow is on the 9th-10th. Looks major and more likely than the prior solution. 0z shows the storm on the 5th sliding under us and out to sea, but does give us measurable snow. My guess is that becomes a cutter to the lakes.

12z Euro took weak low out under us on 12/5, missing us. 12z and 18z runs of gfs show weak low, but giving us a few inches. Then, the storm loops and comes sw from maine bringing more, but not much.

11-23 the side caption still has a map similar to today's gfs for 12/2 - 12/3 as being the first real covering of snow. But plowable (over 2") snow has not shown up yet as the pattern is going from trough to ridge, cold to warm and back again. Eventually we will get to a point where it is a warm advection snow set up, but until then its kinda dull. Although the mets are getting real excited for December.

There is a hint of a storm on the 5th, and again on the 8th which may bring snow, but its not showing up on the snow map.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Thanksgiving

11/26 - Thanksgiving result - snow sleet and rain fell - temps started at 42 and dropped to 37 on way to NJ. But there was definitely snow while we were in westchester, despite the airport not reporting it. West of Roseland reported grounds being covered and up to 3" in E PA.

11/23 - A tongue of subzero at 850 exists for thursday over PA, NJ, NY and W CT. If the precip arrives early, it could be as snow as temps are to be in the lower 20's the night before. More likely, and not discussed, is that the tongue appearing is more from evaporational cooling, so will likely take place as the precip is drying out.

11/19 - as of 7 days out, the storm originally going to our south and out to sea, is now cutting to the lakes. Should have a cold rain for Thanksgiving.

The Euro has actually gone more towards a weak low coming through wed night, just to our west, and then a double barrel low, one in the lakes, the other through the TN valley for Thurs-Fri. It just keeps the cold air at bay.

GFS 0z has a very weak front runner like the Euro, but it never makes it here. Instead it evolves into a single low going from W. PA to Northern New England.

Future- GFS has it staying cold. Euro hints at a warm up.

The snow on the map for 11/20 just came through now, a few flurries, but mostly cold rain in the form of lake effect.




Its ten days out, but the GFS is putting down a blanket of snow on Thanksgiving day. Euro is close as well. Whether is snows or rains, its going to be ugly. This is has been consistent for a few days.
Will have to look at 7 days out again.

Monday, November 8, 2010

First snow (non accum)

Danbury had its first snow - fell as mix of snow, sleet and rain this morning, Nov 8. Also had wind gust of 28mph during the day. Sleet and snow accumulated on grassy surfaces, along with roofs, cars, patio and patio furniture. Police reported 161 accidents across CT as a result of the wintry weather. Snow came down heavy when I left for Philly around 10am, lightened up around Katonah, but continued on and off even as I crossed the GW bridge.

And with that, the winter blog starts

I don't expect another snow event til around Thanksgiving week, which may have our first 1" accum. I am thinking more along the line of the Dec7-10 for the first plowable snow in excess of 1"

Also of interest, we had our first frost on Nov 1, but it wasn't a killer frost. That happened the next night as temps were in the 20's. It is the latest I could find for Danbury getting below 32.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Igor

9/21 Igors eye technically missed Bermuda to the west. Bermuda had 36 hrs of tropical storm conditions and a few gusts over 100mph. The airport readings maxed at 74mph sustained and 93mph gust. Again, another hurricane unpredictably lost strength on its way to landfall. Igor is sideswiping Newfoundland today.

9/17 - Igor still at cat 3-4 strength. Bermuda preparing for the worst. Euro swung east yesterday, but is barely west, worst case scenario, of bermuda. GFS 0z and 6z have the center just to the west (worst case) and the ensembles have a direct hit (spread is max both east and west). CMC looks to be a direct hit. Nogaps continues its misery being too far west. It goes all the way to 69w , but grazes Bermuda on the way back east. UKMET has direct hit.

NHC claims outside influenses will not affect the hurricane intensity until it reaches Bermuda. Julia is headed right toward Igor. Igor's eye isn't all that strong now, although convection is growing.

9/15 - not much time lately. Igor is still at 20N, moving slowly, barely north. Its latest advisory is at 135, but the latest ADT is at 140mph, with 941 pressure. Igor still heading mostly west, although the description by the NHC is 300 degrees, the last 3 hours are due west. Models are a bit further west, ATCF going to 65 degrees (hitting Bermuda), Hwrf similar (but recurving faster to miss bermuda to the east. GFDL must be running now ,no access. Nam still has it heading nw at 84hrs at 65 degrees. Euro goes to 67, missing Bermuda to the west. NHC hits it square as a cat 2. 18z GFS is now west to 67 and misses Bermuda to the west. UKMET has it hitting, a bit to the west though, Bermuda.

9/13 - Igor remains at 150mph, but looks to be ewr tonite, weakening slightly. Path still heading west, at times wsw. All models except ukmet call for Igor to recurve near Bermuda. We will wait until the nw motion starts before calling off any threat for the coast, but this one is modeling that it will stay out to sea. Only difference is whether its east, west or directly over Bermuda. It should weaken to three by then.

9/12
Igor went from "almost a hurricane" at 5pm on 9/11 to a 140mph cat 4 monster by 5pm on 9/12
Tracks:
ATCF models recurve as far west as 65 degrees at about 35N.
GFDL and Hwrf don't go out as far, but show a nw general path. GFDL more nnw heading towards bermuda and Hwrf more wnw to nw. Gfdl is at 62 and Hwrf at 67 - both seem to still be heading NW at that time.
Euro begins recurve at 72n/32w on 12z run. 71 degrees on the 0z run
CMC240 oz runs it straight wnw to NC/SC but stops it 200 mi or so east and turns it around
gfs - 0z just east of bermuda and out, 6z hits bermuda, 12z goes just west of bermuda. Supported by ensembles which have it just to the east, but with the most spread just to the west. 18z has it back to 67w now. Bermuda is near 65w.




Igor breached etiquette today is it skipped double dare and went to double dog dare. Named a TS at the outset. Two models on this long range:
Euro - has it heading west, and a bit wnw at day 10. Looks like it will be picked by a trough prior to landfall in US
GFS - 12z - heads it west, ridge breaks and it heads north just east of Bermuda where it gets trapped and swings into Maine.
6z - heads west, ridge breaks and heads north just eastward of Bermuda, but before it gets there hooks west again, then North, missing the island to the west
0z - clear recurve east of Bermuda
18z heads east of Bermuda, landfall in Nova Scotia

Friday, September 3, 2010

Gaston


Sept 3rd
Gaston died earlier today, but is making a comeback with a 60% chance now of becoming, well, Gaston again. Current low shear, warm seas should redevelop. There is an area of 40kt shear between Gaston and the Islands. The above photo is from 10:30pm EDT

Sunday, August 29, 2010

But its Earl coming close now.

Sept 3 - Earl came close to OBX and hit the BM today. Only clouds and sprinkles with a gust of 8mph. Actually its a very humid day, and the wind shift to the north didn't do a thing to solve that. The front that was "kicking Earl out" according to some is coming through weak and dry and about 6-8 hrs after Earl has passed and headed NE. Very odd storm - late on the first, it looked like a cat five with concentric eyewalls when I went to bed. Recon had winds of 199mph at 1500 feet and pressure of 927. Officially it went to 145mph, just missing cat five status. Then upon waking up, it was barely a three. And it never quite came back. Track was progged very well by JB, the GFS, Euro and the NHC. GFDL and Hwrf varied too much from the correct track to too far east. Nam got the recurve heading ene wrong, but corrected on the 2nd. Nogaps and late ukmet runs were just bad, too far west. The worst performance was the strength models which insisted Earl stay a cat 2 all the way to Ccod. I can't find a gust over 50kts all day today once it left obx. My reasoning for the weakening is too much dry air and an ill timed eyewall replacement.

Sept 1 - lost the internet for most of the day. Back up and quick look at:
GFS 12z - over ack and real close to ccod, but not a direct hit
GFS 18z - still over ack, backs off from ccod by a few miles - puts more precip down and is much faster than euro
Euro 12z looks fairly close, but not over ack, over bm. 0z kinda stepped it around the bm, jogging east then north just missing the cape
CMC which had been the furthest east, at 12z pops in line with 12z euro, just south of ack and just nw of bm.
UKMEt, second furthest east at 0z hits obx, goes up coast and into around fall river. 12z just misses obx and nicks the cape
12z Nogaps continues its horror track, hitting obx square and wrecking everything up the coast and hitting suffolk county square. However its 0z run hits cape may and long island.
All of the above have recurve tracks that are more north than east, which based on the trough axis and front position, should be the solution. The nam on the other hand doesn't wait for the trough and relies on the weakening atlantic ridge. 12z is 100 miles east of obx and once its up to delmarva, heads more east than north. Then turns north. The 18z goes even further away from obx, 175-200 miles and still turns more east than north
Coamps (for S&G) brushes the eyewall by obx, but hits around montauk, RI/MA border

The hurricane models: gfdl keeps earl way off shore still, while the Hwrf tracks from 75/35 to the benchmark. I also like the look of their curve. They just don't brind earl close enough to obx to begin with. The NHC models have moved markedly west taking a similar path to the hwrf.

Intensity
Hwrf has earl as 80 kts (its been way underdone all along though) with the 50kt winds hitting obx. It keeps the winds at 80kts past the cape, but only ack sees 40-50 kts and the cape sees 30-40 kts. Still not a nice day. It deepens the storm from 952 to 948 as it goes east of the cape.
GFDL has it with 100-110kt winds off obx, with obx in the 60-70 kt range. By the time its over the bm, its down to barely 80kts, with 30 kt winds hitting ack and the cape. It keeps the pressure at 946 all the way up.





August 31 - interesting day in model worship. The GFS, Nogaps and Euro all brought Earl close to or over OBX and ACK. The wrf started that way and then shifted east on the 18z. Then went west, 20-30 miles closer to obx than on 18z run, but took it more ene out south of the bm.
All other models are still well, over 100 miles, out to sea. Local media having mixed reaction - some hyping, some saying its passing 300 miles west of obx (?). 12z GFS run was most impressive, but has backed off a bit at 18z. Feature to the right is the hwrf from yesterday



August 30


NHC has all of ct and half of nj in cone of uncertainty, with the main track just barely east of bm

18z hwrf hits obx and ack, nhc models way off coast, atcf cluster right off obx to just missing bm
18z gfs gets as far west as 75 off of sc/ga, then starts nne, about 100 mi off obx, but then heads more ne than before, going well east of bm and way east of ccod
12z gfs - about 70 miles off obx, then ne to just east of bm ,missing ack by about 70 mi and out to sea
12z eur0 - still takes it to about 70 miles off nc, then nne inside benchmark, over ack and just, barely, east of cc.
12zUKMET - takes it just n of bahamas, to 200 miles off nc/va and then hangs a 180 back out to sea.
12z cmc - same trend as ukmet - shifting east, but still within 100 mi of NC and just east of BM

0z Euro has Earl now 75 east of obx and passing within the BM, hitting ACK and CC.
0z CMC is same as Euro
6z GFS has it 120-130mi east of obx and nailing the BM
Above bring rain and wind into our area
0z UKMEt is farther east of NC, but drives more northerly into the bm and hits it square.
HRWRF takes it closer in to OBX like the euro, but curves it more ne just outside bm and missing us completely. It also barely maintains hurricane strength throughout.
GFDL keeps winds over 110kts, but it passes well east of the conus.



August 29 - NHC upgrades Earl to Hurricane with major status forecast. 5pm forecast has it moving maybe 150 miles east of NC and just to the east of the BM.
Euro - as west as 72/36 then to 68/40 on 9/3
GFS - same, with precip brushing RI/SMA
UKMET - looks like it tries to phase with Northern branch storm, comes very, very close to MD/DE up to ME (low resolution for details this far out on ewall site.
CMC - hits OBX, moves nne up over Montauk/ACK and CC

GFDL, HRWrf and ATCM models all have it recurving, coming in around 200 miles east of obx, except hrfwrf which now has it at 71/36
Intensity gfdl at 130kt+ at that time. hrwrf is at 70kt and only goes as high as 80kt.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Fiona?

Setp 3
Fiona lost some energy into Earl, then suffered some shear from Earl. Then the upper feature kept going west, while the low level circ headed NE. Fiona looked like a airplane going down, trailing smoke behind her. She did get very close to Bermuda as a TS

August 30
GFS completely loses Fiona
Euro takes her into SC
NHC models and ATCF models all over the place
Hwrf goes up to nc/va border, hooks west and abruptly ends as trop storm
CMC keeps fiona well out to sea, east of earl and so does Gaston

August 29 - todays gfdl, hrwrf, and atcf models all are keeping fiona well out to sea
Euro has it going south of FL.
CMC moves it into the bahamas at 144
UKMET passes north of the bahamas at 144
GFS recurves well out to sea

Intensity has fiona at high ts or low hurricane


August 28 - todays 240 ecmwf has fiona at 72w 31n for 07 sep 7
gfs has earl at 72w32n on 0z sep3, with fiona swept out by earl

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Rare summer post - Heatwave

For the first time since 2001, temps in this area crossed the 100 degree mark on July 6. Danbury officially at the airport was 100, while the CT weather center registered 104. Here at the house it was 98. NYC crossed 100 for the first time since 2001 as well - here are some of the highs from the metro area
NYC - 103
LGA - 103
EWR - 105 (then changed to 103 due to a "malfunction")* tied all time high
HPN - 102
SWF -101
POU - 102
BDL - 102* tied all time high
New Haven - 100
Stamford - 103* all time high
Morristown - 102
Caldwell - 102
Teterboro - 103
Westfield Ma - 103
and other interesting highs
BWI - 105
Williamsburg 105
Fredericks VA 105
Macguire AFB - 104

And other interesting facts....

Winds were primarily out of the north in most locations, thus humidity was relatively low in the 20s and 30s. Sea breeze saved Boston, Bridgeport and other locations from exceeding 100 and there was a shift to the South and drop of 10 degrees once the sea breeze set in. This allowed overnite temps to get back into the comfortable 60's by early morning.

Last year we never went over 90 in Danbury. It took until August to go above 90 in NYC. This year Danbury is above 90 5 days so far, with first day being May 26.

We have not had any rain since June 28. April was 45% of rainfall, May was 51% of rainfall, June was 68% of rainfall. No rain is forecast until July 10.

Temps are not supposed to be as high today, but at 8:53am, the temp was already 87 at DXR. There should be a stronger seabreeze for the coast today, and then the humidity builds in for the next few days.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Winters last chance

Storm to the south on Friday might bring enough cold air to mix in some snow, if it goes far enough north. Then it may leave enough cold air behind to mix some in on Monday's storm.

Monday's storm looks pretty bad from a rain perspective. We had almost 3 inches last night, and almost 8 for the month of March. Compared to .5 inches of snow. But some are calling for snow, how that is with temps this warm, I don't know. It would be short lived though. The mounds of snow at the Mall are gone! Winter offically over.

Its just too warm - I'm liking that more and more. See you next year.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Is winter over?

While there still looks to be some cold air left aloft, its really winding down now. As previously posted, with no colder than normal surface temps, its difficult to believe we will have any snow.

With average highs in Danbury of the 43 to start and 54 to end, and nightime lows in the low 20's to 32 by the end, not much chance for the above normal temps we have had lately to turn into snow. As of the ninth, our lowest temp was 21, for literally an hour. The last time we were in the teens, which should not be a stretch to reach, was Feb 17th at 19 degrees.

March has had officially .5 inches of snow - and there is no more in sight. Will it be the least snowiest march in history?

Friday, March 5, 2010

Looking ahead in March

The problem with late Feb and Early march continues - no really cold surface temps. Yes the 850 line is below us almost the entire next two weeks, but surface temps never make it into the lower 20's and highs only in the 40's. Looking a little above normal due to the higher nite temps.

So it looks like a very moderate March, with no extremes. Thats unusual, but what hasn't been this winter.

As far as storms - nothing headed directly at us for certain, but storms will be around on the 11th (likely rain), 13th (could be big, rain to snow) and the 20th.

Friday, February 26, 2010

March 3- 4th storm

3-4 -results: 2 inches, which did not last. only .2 in liquid. Snow coatings both on thurs and fri following from same storm.





3-2 GFS leading the charge north


Nam is bopping around, GFS now has CT in the .5-.75 range for precip. Question is how much is rain and how much is snow. With temps in the 40's - unless it falls at night and the ground gets cold enough, the only accumulation may be on grassy surfaces and existing snow.




BTW - our 7 inches from Friday's storm melted yesterday


3-1 - all models have the storm going well offshore. Question is how much moisture gets back.
Eur0 has 93/87 (850/700mb) RH Wed morn. GFS has the same and puts out an inch of snow, but with "warm" temps around 32, might be hard to stick. NAM has no output and lower RH

So for now, no big analysis as the models continue mostly offshore.






2/27 - models bring the storm up to delmarva and then send ene. Looks like a near miss
0z runs
CMC looks best, but is just se of benchmark, but puts down a few inches - see above
EURO grazes us, but throws enough moisture back to make it interesting
GFS - mostly out to sea, but throws a lot of moisture back for a couple inches
UMKET - way out
Nogaps - way out
JMA - SE of benchmark but like the Euro and GFS, still gives some snow
DGEX - sends it due east off SC.


Interesting developments for the fourth. It was longranged on the GFS, then completely disappeared and is back again

0z runs
Euro - off OBX on the 4th (hits dc) and out to sea
UKMET - way out to sea
CMC - grazes us as it goes off obx on the 4th and out to sea
DGEX - way out to sea
GFS - off obx on the 3rd and out to sea

12z runs pushed north
Euro - obx on the 3rd, heads ne just se of bm. Grazes us
UKMET - still out to sea
CMC - pulls from obx north to bm, giving coastal areas snow - I think the pressure was 968
GFS - 984 off obx on the 3rd. Up to NJ 0z on the 4th and then hooks right, but gives the tristate a good snow fall. 980 pressure
JMA - 984 well se of bm, but would have some snow, mostly coastal.

Lots of talk about it coming north though with some gfs support

Prelim results for 25-26 retro storm

Storm tracked from off the NC coast up to south of CCod, over CT (New Haven had lowest pressure of 972 (28.72) and here was down to 975, so I think it went right over NH.

We received 2.72 inches of rain, had serious flooding as rain ran down icepak in back yard, over wall creating waterfall and streamed up against the sunroom. Then going down the wall in the basement and flowing out the garage.

We reached 32 around 2am, just in time to be dryslotted. At 4:30pm temps were 38, but wind shifted around 5-5:30 to the nw and temps dropped to 33. From there it took until 2am to reach freezing and we were dryslotted at the time.

Woke up with an inch of snow on the ground, and pavement with temps around 28. Gained 3-4 inches through the morning as we were in northern bands as low hung over NYC. Low then faded SSE and started to weaken by noon with snow squalls following.

Serious storm anywhere west or south of here. Greenwhich had about a foot as did White plains. Serious tree damage throughout the tristate. Ridgefield, 5 miles away had about 8 inches. Armonk over a foot. Ossning 18 inches. Across the Hudson, was brutal. 25-35 inches were common in Orange/Rockland. Even NJ had spots over 24"

Ski areas reported 60 inches at Belleayre 40 inches at Hunter (plus previous 22 brough them to 62 in three days), Loon - 39, Okemo - 30.

Winds - DXR had 35mph gust, but none at the house over 14. Most of the time the trees did not move. Different story in Maine, NH where gusts of 90mph occurred at buoys and 132mph on MT Washington Massive power outages to over 200,000 in ME/NH

And as of 2:30 on the 26th, its still squalling.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

result for 23rd

Started snowing late mon nite, not sticking, at 34 degrees. Woke up to two inches, no school. Snowed til noon before drizzling, rain, sleet and snow all mixed. Stayed 33-34 all day. Posting at 10pm and still 33.1 with rain and snow mixed, but mostly rain attm. Total snow today was 4in

Monday, February 22, 2010

beyond the 23-24 - into the 25th 26th

2-25

Its late for a prediction, but for danbury, 4 inches of wrap around on friday, early morn. NYC will get mostly rain until 9pm -6 inches for them. Depends on if and when cold air arrives. We get dry slotted once cold air arrives.

2-24
Delayed opening today. The bad news is that while the GFS was making progress going toward the euro, thd 0z runs of the euro, ukmet and cmc moved toward the gfs and the 6 z run of the gfs and nam moved further west with the r/s line. So unless there is a correction, this looks to be the last post as it will be a rain storm.

2-23

Well, the models are consistent run to run, but there are two camps. The US models take the low up the coast, close to NY and it sits somewhere to our west, keeping us rain until the cold air arrives, at which point we are dry slotted (nam). This looks the same as last nites post, so they are consistent. NAM puts out close to 10 inches of snow in spite of the call for rain. GFS also calls for some snow, but after rain. GFS has trended further west and a bit more weak with a 980 low now over or west of NY. Earlier (6z run) had it at 976. NWS in NY and Bos have commented that the GFS is feeding back convection and making the storm too strong, thus pulling it north and west. NAM is usually a bit north and west for the same reason. Accuweather is leaning more towards gfs, and JB is defending it.

The CMC, UKMET and EURO all have the storm further out, over the gulf stream, and bring it in over mass (as described last nite as well, so there is no change there). This keeps w ct and further west and south in the cold portion and will amount to a lot of snow. These models have it a bit weaker (980) than the nam and gfs. 12z Euro track is closer to gfs, although by the time its over nyc at 980, its actually north of nyc, the thickness line is way out to sea. CMC and UKMEt are both similar in strength but bring it around NYC through RI and Mass, keeping the thickness line out east of us.








0z nam
precip
18z gfs
12z gfs



2-22 12/18z

What was the third system, now is the main storm on most models.
While the ukmet tries to bury us on wed, it shows a stacked, 988 off Ccod on Friday morn, deepening further on Sat morning, still just a bit too far east for a major storm for us
Euro goes the same off ccod at 980 but brings it back into New England, resulting in snow fri into sat. Euro also keeps us cold the entire week.
WRF - all over the place. 12z run brings storm into E CT with us getting some snow and rain. 18z goes further east, around boston and into NH. 0z run for 2/23 goes bonkers with 970 low over NYC. Its rain at 72 hrs, but snow the other hours. See above as it moves NW into NNJ and spins for 18 hrs.
GFS - 12z moves a 984 over boston and to springfield(Fri) , to danbury (sat) and alb on Sunday where it weakens. This would clobber CT. 18z moves low from Providence to Springfield, still clobbering CT. see precip and other shots.

Friday, February 19, 2010

It goes beyond the 23rd...

2/22 - ok its 10pm and snowing at 34 degrees and 87rh. Not much more room for cooling although obs in Trenton are below freezing. I'm still doubtful it gets cold enough or snows hard enough to stick to the streets.

12z Looks like NAm is too late (no precip til 7am), UKMET gets it right, cmc too slow, gfs right. euro doesnt have the resolution to tell

So it looks like wet snow, light amounts overnight. UK met keeps it cold, nam warms it. CMC keeps us on the line through 72 hrs. Euro has right thicknesses (under 540) and keeps us under freezing, but barely, for the next week. GFS has right thicknesses, but goes to .8 at 850 for 6hrs on Wed. Its amazing the different timing, strengths and tracks being taken.

Beyond Wed is going into another thread.



2-21


12z
Euro - still keeps it cold enough at 850 to be all snow, so long as boundary layer is under 35.
UKMET - up to 72 hrs, looks like snow starts 6-12z tuesday and comes down hard later that day. Again, 850 line south of LI, so only real warm boundary layer should be causing rain
CMC - keeps 850 line on CT coast until 12z wed when its 992 low tracks up to nyc. from there it heads to buffalo, keeping us warm. But then the third low comes up and tracks around montauk, to Springfield, to Albany to Scranton to N NJ. Thickness lines after wed are clearly snow, but BL temps are in the 30's
WRF - secondary goes se, minor snow, then another forms and pushes 850 line and thickness line just on the coast. Keeps dxr mostly around .5 - (1.5) so its right on the r/s line. Wednesday is the real start and the phasing with the third system not until later thurs. If that happens, should be snow as the 540 thickness line runs from obx to ack. The 12z was much warmer in the beginning though.
GFS -18z - this just doesnt happen. The secondary stays south enough that the 850 line mostly stays south of us, except at 6z wed. Thickness stays south of us. It precips for a long time. The third storm phases well out to sea, then loops around into boston and sits there for friday and saturday, at 976! Snow reaching all the way to DXR from this! nuts.
12z - similar to 18z, but does not stick in bos as long. Both runs have dxr very close to r/s line and it depends on BL temps.
GFS ENS - using dominant precip type, only rain for them is at 18z on wed. rest is snow on 18z run. SREF is mostly rain though.


Precip amounts. Wrf has over 2 inches and thats just tues and weds. Gfs looks similar. The max it can do is 60 hours and this event will be much longer. The accuweather gfs has most of CT getting at least 2.5 inches of precip this week, with eastern parts closer to 3 and parts of Mass at 4. snowfall map has parts of vt, ma and ny with over 24 inches while ct has some... see above.


2-21 0z/6z



UKMET - holds off snow until tuesday night as first one goes to lakes and peters out. Second comes up coast for Tues nite and sits over us wed-fri

Euro - Moisture comes in mon nite as snow. 1000 low reforms off delmarva on tues nite, with dxr staying under freezing at 850. Low moves due north over BDL on Wed nite, then due East on Thurs nite when the third impulse catches up with it and it bombs out to 988 around the BM. Then it retros back into Mass on Fri nite. to Alb Sat nite. Model output for 850 temps all under 850 for dxr and RH from tues nite onward is in the upper 80's to 90's.

CMC - snow moves in Tues morn as secondary forms, secondary goes right up over NYC and hudson on Wed, putting us in the warmer sector. then it cuts off, and cold air pours in, putting us in the cold sector by wed nite. Then it just spins around NY/W New england for a few days with impulses coming in and going out, all under 0 at 850.

wrf - 6z - now has first storm dying with second forming to our south and heading ne, missing us for tuesday, but retrograding on wednesday, with us in the under 0 at 850 sector.
0z was similar non event as it did not retrograde

gfs -6zz holds off snow until tues afternoon, runs secondary out around li into RI. keeps weak until third system catches it over Bm, then pivots into CCOD area on Friday at 988. we are below 0 at 850 through the week, but surface temps are around 30-35.
0z run brings snow in tues morn, with secondary running to BDL, wed morn at 992, spinning and petering out, with third system coming in, but further east over BM and east of CCod and doing a loop over Ccod. see precip output for 6z above

















2-20 - models still a mess, with some putting nothing down for the first, but loading the second, some snow, some rain. the 0z run 2-21 has a huge amount of precip 3 inches in CT. see above. Its not all snow, maybe even very little. The dgex 18z also had a lot of snow on the ground in the hills NW CT. like over 24 inches. Problem remains too much warm air to start and low is too close (actually on top of us)

2-19 The afternoons runs for today show that the 23rd storm is trouble to forecast. This will be difficult to describe in words but I'll try
Euro - takes low in IL (1002), splits it primary into the lakes and secondary over NC/VA on Tues. Secondary takes over somewhere off NJ, but weak (1006) on Weds. Sits around the BM on Thurs and moves NW from RI to Ontario (996) on Fri. It keeps us right on the cold side of the 850 line and 540 line, but barely and I can see how it sleets or rains instead.

UKMET goes from MO on Monday, north into lakes Tuesday, but reforms off NC/SC. Goes north to Delmarva on Wednesday and to LI/CT on Thursday(992). Would guess this is snow to rain, but can't tell how much and when the change occurs.

GFS - 18z run is facinating. Over KY,IN and IL on Monday morn. Up to the lakes as a 1000mb with snow moving in Monday night here. Secondary forms Tuesday morn off OBX with steady snow continuing. Lakes low dissapates and secondary moves just southeast of BM, with still snow on Wed morn, but lightening up, at 998. Thursday it moves NW and dissapates while another storm is forming off NC. The old storm pushes the 850 line west with it, while the new one comes up the coast and centers (992) over C May Thurs morn. Thurs afternoon it goes to Scranton (988) and sits until Saturday as it moves over New England. The deepening on Thurs afternoon brings more cold air into it, pushing the 850 line east, with precip finally ending on Saturday. So it goes from snow, to rain, to snow. However, surface temps over most of S NY, CT, MA, NJ are all above 32 for most of the time.

DGEX - keeps with the primary to lakes, secondary off coast, keeps it all snow for us on Tuesday. Breaks the weather Wed Afternoon until Thurs afternoon when another low forms over SC, never makes it to the water?? and goes to philly pushing the 540 line all the way west to PIT.

CMC - Low monday over S. IL. Primary goes to N IN on Tues, with secondary forming over delmarva as snow begins tues morn over us. Wed - Old low weakens, secondary sits off NJ by NYC and spins for a day as old low kicks it out. After moving past BM, new low and old low (still over NYC) move almost due west back to Ontario and CCOD. just as weird as GFS, but results in all snow.

GFS ENs - 18z run has low over IN on mon. fades to the lakes and secondaries on tuesday over obx. Moves over BM on Wed 1000. East of CCod, barely on thurs. Weaker low develops thurs and moves east of here friday to about portsmouth. Only has rain for 6 hrs on wednesday.

whew
So the american models see the system coming up from the south, the CMC, UKMET and Euro don't. fun!

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Possible 2-23

2-18
12zs
gfs - low from WV to OBX with secondary over SC, consolidates East of Cape May, passes se of bm and hangs around CCod . Some snow, not alot. 18z is really bizarre as it goes well SE of BM but still brings in lots of snow, then it turns around and heads NW over CCOD. As it heads over CCOd another low forms off NC and follows NE to E of BM where it turns NW and heads right over CCOD on Friday. Gotta throw both of these out!
Euro - From Cape May to CCod, then NW into ME/NH border. Could have rain from it, especially near the coast. Most normal scenario
CMC - brings low to IN hen secondaries over VA and it sits over DC bringing us snow. Also odd
DGEX - sends low up to Buffalo, secondaries (?) over SC and heads due east. Just some WAA snow to rain. Very, very different from the 6z run.
UKMEt has broad area of low pressure off East coast.
gfsens bring low from OBX to se of bm, close enough for 3-5 inches

0z runs
gfs - over nc and out to sea - nada. 6z brings up coast to NJ. r/s line close
euro - primary to lakes, secondary off nj, then stalls at 1004. r/s line very close
CMC - gets just to BM and swings NNW stalling at 992 - all snow
UKMEt - same as euro, down to 1004
DGEX - primary to PA, then secondary off nj - stalls over BM has snow from Mon nite to Friday. puts down over 18 inches!!!
GFS Ens - just south of BM





2-17


12z
Euro - tn valley, dubl barrel w. pa and nj = "warm advection" snow - trended way north though - 1004 low
CMA - same look as Euro - trend north with dubl barrel to lakes and nj. keeps snow in though 992 low
GFS - still just south of bmark - 1000 low
UKMET - tn valley to delmarva - 992 low
GFS Ens shown above


So - Euro and CMC started flat W to E, now going Northeast. UKMEt used to go from FL to NC, now is flat. GFS the same. Way too much difference, but it looks like it will do something.




0z runs
Euro - off out over OBX - nothing - 988 low
JMA - off out over OBX - nothing
GFS - off delmarva over bmark and hangs around - nice storm
CMA - same as GFS - sticks around a little more
DGEX - goes to our north - rain
UKMet - looks promising, doesn't go that far out.

Euro puts 1000 mb over the benchmark with all snow event for us on the 23rd.
CMC and GFS also have it, a little further south. GFS switches from too south to a lakes runner every other run. UKMET starts one, but loses altogether. JMA pushes off OBX

Sunday, February 14, 2010

2-16

Finally a clipper coming through... 3-5 inches likely Monday nite into Tuesday. NWS concerned about mixing at shore. I'm more worried about dry slot. Potential is there for 6+, but not likely as storms have been tracking south this year. NAM and GFS have .25 to .5 for precip output, which concurs with 3-5 inches.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

2-10 storm



2-9 12z runs all have low nicely tucked under long island. Difference in timing remains, but most have strength of at least 980

12z NAM precip is at 1.25 - 1.5 for most of CT - hi res has 1.5-1.7

12z GFS precips at .75 - 1 with still the bulk falling around PHL and then out by the cape

Its 2pm and getting cloudy! Looks like a footer is coming!










2-8
0z Euro has 978 low just south of li wed eve, starts tues night/wed morn
0z UKmet has 976 low just south of li wed eve, starts wed morn
0z cmc has 968 low off nj and moves it southeast?? starts wed morn
0z gfs has 976 low s of li wed morn, .75, 6z looks weird that it splits the storm and rephases off cape cod, delaying snow and only .2
0z wrf has 976 low off east li .75, 6z off ack at 976, .75 but both don't start until wed afternoon
12z Euro has 1000mb low off delmarva, moving out to sea but with enough moisture to affect us then bombs to 970 out at sea
12z cmc has 992 low off delmarva, not moving to sea, but deepening to 976 and then 968 off the NJ coast, just north enough for us to get some snow, but pounds nj, phila and dc
12z ukmet takes a 996 low off delmarva to 976 low south of long island and out to sea, gets ct snow, but pounds s nj
12z nam - takes 996 low off delmarva into nyc to 984 then east to 976. Nails S. New England with danbury getting .75 liquid
12z gfs - takes 996 low off delmarva to 976 off nj, then 970 se of long island, only gives us .5 liquid

18z GFS and NAM focus shifts to precip amounts as we will be in the all snow sector.
NAm now shows .25 to .5, GFS has .5

Storm remains a NY-PHL storm, with perhaps some large amounts in far se new england
500 mb low is now tracking over s nj, not as stacked, but still keeping the surface low from escaping.





2-7 Above is 18z gfs precip run

0z Euro has 992 low double stacked from ohio to ct. 12 z NOLA to off DE at 1000mb
0z CMC - dubl barrelled oh/ga storm consolidates east of nj at 980, grazes CT. 12z goes further east of nj but bombs from 980 to 968 stationary south of LI. CT gets snow
0z ukmet - dubl barrel but phase way east of NC as 988 low - nothing. 12z phases closer to DE but still not far enough north for meaningful snow.
12z Wrf - OBX to CCOD, but somehow produces ton of snow. 18z slower - hangs storm out around ack and clobbers us. .75 inches of precip.
6z GFS - phases off DE, moves SE of bmark, grazes CT
12z GFS - phases off NJ, sits under LI -nails CT up to MA
18z - phases off nj goes to 976 S of LI- major storm on map, but oddly only puts 4 inches on snowmap. Precip has .25 Philly gets over 2 feet again.
GFS ENS passes low just south of bmark at 976 gets us with .5 precip

2-6 12z runs. Euro still dead on. Gfs dead on. DGEX, CAN and UKMET, now south of us.





2-6 - OK this one looks pretty solid.
DGEX - brings 986 low right over us along with stacked upper low
Euro is a little earlier (starts tues nite) and brings 984 low right over us, with stacked upper low
CMC brings a 976 low off S Jersey, stacked and goes right out to sea. Still shows snow for CT, but not further north.
Nogaps has upper low going over nyc, but surface low out to sea. Still has snow for CT
GFS 6z and 0z phase two storms over us at 988 with stacked upper. Lots of snow.
GFS ENs take it just south of the benchmark
UKMET - parks 984 low just south of LI. Stacked as well, then bombs to 966 out at sea

This looks a lot more serious than the 30% chance NWS is giving us. JB already calling it a blizzard.
So which will it be this time, moving north and turning to rain (the usual situation we have seen less of this year) or moving south and out to sea (which has happened several times, but is not usual)
Its gotta be the rain.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

2-6 storm

2/6 - not a flake of snow, RH 47 at dxr, dp 4, 21f

2/5 - precip for ct
0z gfs - .01, 6z - .01, 12z - .01, 18z 0-.01 to .25
all nam runs 0
EURO, CMC and UKMET all get the precip to the coast, but not past.
Its 6:30, 31 degrees, 60% humidity (at dxr) with 18 dewpoint. Calm wind. Radar has snow over us









Two models shows any precip for CT. GFS and JMA. Here are the shots at their most northern extent.


JB has 4-8 for nyc. HM has CT in 1-6, nyc in 6-12. EA 1-3.NWS has 40% chance of snow.
Water vapor is streaming out of the gulf and cloud cover is extensive in the middle of the country.