Halloween - always interesting.

10/27 - No major issues, but some wind and rain heading in Wed nite.
Here are the gusts from this mornings Euro.  Rain amts 1.-2". 2-2.5 on gfs.  GFS has gusts over 40mph for Interior sections, higher along the coast. Same with NAM. 

10/25  Euro and GFS show Pat redeveloping and hitting LA.  The GFS takes the moisture further east into our area for a soaking rain on Wed Nite.  Euro takes the bulk of the rain to our east.  The GFS shows a trough and snow in our area on the 30th (snow shower type, mood snow) while Euro doesn't.  Both have nice Halloween day.

10/23
 Euro shows frontal passage (fropa) on the 25th.  Then we need to watch what happens with the remnants of Patricia.  Some indication that some of the precip will make it up here on Thursday.  Euro has the remnants reform into a LP along the TX/LA coast and linger.  Then by Wed/Thurs get swept into a front. Interestingly, it also has a little noreaster developing as an upper low (UL) comes around.

Canadian looks similar to Euro, but brings LP further west. Spares us storminess, still good rain though.
0z Gfs doesn't develop the remnants as much, keeps the low onshore, and brings it up on Wednesday, again to our west, over Chicago.  It has a noreaster hitting us on the 3rd as a system again emerges from the gulf.



10/21

This mornings Euro was more benign - just a front coming through on the 29th and a brief cool shot.   Should be noted that TX area gets 6-12 inches of rain.
This afternoons Euro was more interesting - tropical storm hitting the TX/LA coast and moving north to the Lakes, with an upper low sliding in under it and the whole mess pushing through the NE on the 29th/30th.

The 0z GFS had the front come through dry on the 29th, but left the Gulf open for some development.  Tropical moisture streams northward on the 30-31-1 period, but nothing too organized.
12z run has nothing of note - normal frontal passages, nothing tropical.

0z CMC runs a deep low over the lakes, up to our west.  So does the 12z which results in chilly Halloween.

10/20  Since 2011, I've been keeping an eye on the last week or two of Oct for some interesting weather.  Low and behold, the models now go out to Halloween and there is some interesting features. 

Todays 0z GFS run has a hybrid tropical system heading up the coast and hitting us on the 30th.  Lot of rain, not too much wind.

The Euro has us setting up for a cold blast, deep trough.  It doesn't take much for that to close off  or go more negative and the storm/moisture offshore to come back in.  Need to watch this.

Case in point, the Euro ensemble control, which forms a noreaster, brings it back, but doesn't close off all the way and it gets pushed back out before hitting us.

FWIW - Canadian has a LP running from the Gulf up the OH valley, over us.  At the same time cold air presses down.  Should be serious snow in Northern NY,VT, NH with back end elsewhere. Bottom right box is the 0c line at 850mb (5,000 feet approx.)

So no consensus for now -but some interesting items to watch for the end of the month.

12z update Euro closes off low, but timing is a bit later and further west.  Still heavy rain, then upper low would go through with some snow.  GFS has a weaker miller A type storm forming over the SE and moving up the coast. 12z CMC has a storm moving up the Apps, with bombing out over us to 987mb and snow in the ADKs, Green and White mts.

First snow

10-18  Had our first freeze overnight, first frost yesterday (10/17) morning and first snow around noon today.  Snow showers on and off so far from 12-2.  Looking forward to the mid week warmup.  Keep eye on gulf of mexico late in the week.

Negative tilted trough, storm out to sea?

10-2

NAM, Canadian, and NAVGEM are only operational models left with a US coastal hit.  Some hurricane ensemble members do as well, but they are in the minority.  So whats left to do but watch.  Some interesting features - there is a ULL in the Atlantic heading towards HJ, and an ULL over the SE heading to HJ.  There is also a negatively tilted trough at 250,300 and 500mb.  ULL lows at 850 and 750 have merged with HJ.  All of this, and it still goes out to sea.  

In the gif below, you can see the two upper level lows (swirls in orange/black)  mentioned above, you can see the water vapor stripping off HJ into the front/trough (that I thought would influence HJ).  You'd think that the two ULLs would either push the storm south, or squeeze it north along the jetstream and front.

Below are the winds at 300mb, which would steer the storm.  Black lines indicate direction of wind, red line is forecast track.  Makes no sense.  You'd think it would go north.

Can the Euro snatch victory and save us all?

4:30  Euro holds out to sea again. GFS 6 and 12z agree.  UKMET hits Bermuda.  HWRF sends it out to sea.  GFDL, CMC, hurricane models and now the NAM are closer or hitting the east coast.   I still think a fast exit to the ENE from the Bahamas is odd - nothing really acting on the storm.  GFS is closer to my thinking, which means NYC-Cape should still watch this.  It would be horrible if the Euro changed its mind now! 
 

7:30 Monday's 12z run the Euro had the solution most models came to later yesterday - upper low snags Joaquin and it makes a hard left turn into the Carolinas.  Then Tuesday morning's run, Joaquin just headed towards Bermuda, only to move back to a position between Bermuda and the Cape on Wednesday.  No credit for strength, as it did predict 970 lows, it didn't get it into the 930's where it is (unofficially at this time) now.

Up until last night, every ( I mean every) other model had a US landfall, mostly between NC and NJ.  That is until the 0z GFS which shifted to the east/north to a NYC area landfall.  6z run of the GFS completely misses the US, might hit Canada.  UKMET also moved to a near Cape Cod solution on its 0z run. 

So we will see the forecasters likely shift the path east (already did somewhat this morning) as the trends are starting.  However, given the amount of time (now landfall on Monday/Tuesday) and that the deterministic models still aren't initializing and capturing the strength, plus some discrepancies in the upper levels and lastly, possible interaction with Ida, its hard to say we're past this one.  Still keep an eye on it.