Provide a summary of the model runs for storms which may affect Fairfield County. Not a forecast, but summary of trends, positions and precip type/amount
12-23
Every model showing snow now. Dusting to 2". Euro and ICON have the least amounts.
GFS
Canadian Global
Canadian Regional
Canadian Hi Res
NAM
NAM hi Res
German ICON
Euro
12-22 Still a good chance for light snow. Actually, it should snow, just not sure if its flurries, snow showers or more sustained. Depends how much moisture makes it over the Appalachians. Nothing to be worked up over, just mood flakes. The 2" areas are in blue.
NAM
Euro
GFS
12-20 There's a shortwave disturbance that is out there on the Euro for the 12-24 to 12-26 period. Brings a dusting to an inch .
FV3 has it too
12-15 And just like that, the snow opportunities disappear. That storm on the 21st really goes bonkers on the GFS and brings 2+" of rain.
There is a following clipper that drops down behind it, but its very light. Could provide mood snow for Christmas Day, but nothing worse at this point.
FV3 has the 12-21 storm further east and weaker, but the clipper behind completely falls apart.
Euro lacks the clipper altogether.
6z navgem has an interesting solution - keep the southern and northern stream separate, and run the storm in the gulf up the seaboard like a miller a type storm. Weaker storm, but keeps the warm air from coming up. But there isn't a lot of cold air to work with either.
So this mornings update is a green Christmas, possible with mood flakes.
12-13
With Christmas coming into long range on the GFS, FV3 and EPS, will there be snow on the ground, in the air, rain or just green?
Today's FV3 did not disappoint with multiple chances at moderate snow.
EPS from 0z today also looks good with a good size storm on Christmas day
GFS has a big storm as well. The 0z early on the 24th, 6z run late on the 24th into 25th.
We are due for a big storm. Haven't had a storm with over 1" of precip from a storm in one day since Nov 2.
12-11 GFS and NAVGEM are following suit with sliding the storm on the 14th, which was originally going to the lakes, now to our south. We may get a feature dropping a dusting to an inch as trough slips in briefly.
Euro doesn't have this feature and instead develops the upper low into a surface low and sends out to sea (GFS does this as well, just faster.) Note how warm the Euro is.
12-9 The storm below stayed to the south. Another storm is progged to go to the lakes on the 14th. With a few other chances between now and the 25th. The problem is its warm and they want to go to our west.
The euro eps and operational have a different solution for 12-14 timeframe
For the 14th-16th, the GFS ensembles are coming in closer to the NE, as is the FV3. But too warm for snow.
12-4
We are coming out of a cold and stormy pattern in November and December looks a bit warmer and tamer, at least until the last week. Currently watching a storm from the 9-11th time frame that looks to be headed to the south of CT, perhaps scraping coastal areas with some light accumulation.
In the longer range, the EPS monthly has a storm up the EC around Christmas.
Yes the season is upon us. Christmas lights are out already and waiting for the snow to help bring us into winter. First flakes last year were Nov 10.
The models have been showing sporadic chances for snow on some runs, but not until today do I feel it necessary to start talking snow.
0z GFS with its typical bias of pushing the storm and trough too fast
0z Euro with a more realistic solution, but the storm itself brings only a mix to deep interior NE
There's room for that to come back, but if it did it would rain.
The 6z GFS showing it can be realistic.
Now before we start stocking up, I'm only expecting at most a wet snow with the low and even that is not likely, but I am expecting flurries and snow showers behind it, which should give us first flakes. Pattern after this quiets through Thanksgiving.
Michael started out with a look at the MJO and EPS probability of tropical development back on Sept 29.
The GEM picked up on it first, but then again it picks up a lot of stuff that's garbage too. The general theme was development in the western Caribbean and moving either east or west of FL.
Euro had it in the SW Atlantic on the 2nd
Had nothing on its 12z run the 3rd, but the 4th came around to the idea of a panhandle special
From there it became timing and exact placement.
Even the navgem had it on the 4th.
GFS on the 2nd had sniffed it out - but honestly, every run of the GFS this year has a storm in the Caribbean. It took it around the gulf, then out over Florida
All clear on the 3rd and 4th
By 12z on the 5th it had locked in.
Once we got to the 5th, it really became an intensity and exact location battle. The area between NOLA and Big Bend were in question. That got narrowed down to Mobile to Big Bend as the NAM came on board with a Big Bend hit, then it became Pensacola to just east of Panama City. This is where it remains today, with most guidance taking it ashore around Panama City.
As of tonite, the winds look to be in the 120-125 mph range at landfall per NHC.
10/10 - will fill in at home
Doing this retrospectively. There was no indication that Michael would go to 155mph until a couple hours before landfall. It just kept strengthening. These are the hurricane hunter obs. Some of the flights were at the same time, so its not in perfect order, but you can see the history well here.
Now that Michael has developed an
inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and
DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during
the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24
hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status.
The 10pm Monday discussion says it all
Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant. Having said that, all of the model
guidance calls for the shear to decrease to around 10 kt or less by
36 hours, which argues for at least steady intensification during
that time given that Michael will be moving over warm SSTs of
28.5C-29C, which are about 1-2 deg C above average for this time of
the year.
The prediction remained in the 120mph and 125mph range until the 10pm Tuesday advisory which increased winds to 130mph. At this point the pressure is 947mb.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along
with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an
intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would
support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has
not measured thus far
The 4am advisory, 8-10 hours before landfall, brought the forecast wind speed to 145mph.
Models.
HWRF was said to have done the best.
I could only go back so far. Track was pretty tight with the models, making a call for a landfall in the Panama City area easy 3 days before, though the NAM had a sharper west turn and hit Big Bend area. With the approaching front/trough it was something to watch.
Globals showed intensification as it approached land, but were way off with their pressures and winds.
10/11 Aftermath
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An east-
northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will move away from the coast of the United
States during the next few hours and then begin to race
east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is
expected to continue to strengthen while becoming a post-tropical
low during the next few hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
primarily over water to the southeast of the center. The National
Ocean Service station on the York River recently reported sustained
winds of 62 mph (99 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) at an
elevation of 48 ft (15 m), while the Norfolk Naval Air Station
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of
75 mph (120 km/h). Also, a Weatherflow station on the Chesapeake
Light Tower recently reported sustained winds of 81 mph (130 km/h)
and a wind gust of 96 mph (154 km/h) at an elevation of 135 ft
(41 m).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has
become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast
of the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to
55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional
increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. After
that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast
to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revised
intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center.
Michael flooded LI with 4-5 inches of rain as it skirted to the south. We had no rain overnight here in Newtown
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