3-2 Result 5.5"
0z NAM .68
3-1 Still looking for mostly snow north of NYC. 12z run yesterday through 12z run today all consistent. NAM likely too much. .
12z GFS .42
12z Euro .49
12z NAM .69
0z GFS .42
0z Euro .5
0z nam .71
2-28 Nothing sexy about this one.
All models agree on some overrunning snow from a front and wave combo on Sunday night into Monday. Anywhere from 2-5 inches. NAM with a little more, but that is expected. NAM forms a LP right off Delmarva which enhances precip somewhat.
0z 2-28 nam .71
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12z Euro .35 qpf
12z GFS with .42qpf
12z NAM with .56 qpf
0z GFS with .32 qpf
0z NAM .25-.5
0z Euro .28
Friday, February 27, 2015
Thursday, February 19, 2015
2-22
2/22 - results 5.25 inches. Snow started at 2, lasted 12 hrs with varying intensity and types of snow. Kudos for the models, weather service for getting this one right. We never got near freezing and the 925 and 850 lines never made much past the CT coast.
2-20 late evening. 0z Nam and 0z Gfs are all snow events now, with 850s below 0 the entire time and surface temps around 33f at the highest. Nam has .75 QPF, gfs has .52. 4-6 is a good call.
2-20 No further trend south. We should be getting 3-6" on a front end thump, if not a little more. 850 temps on all but the GFS support snow. Problem is surface temps get above freezing near the end of the event. Do we trust models with a deep snowpack? They are only a degree or two above freezing, but also at 925. The 925mb temp (2k feet) is more reliable with a snowpack, so while 850 and 1000-500 thickness supports a 100% snow event for all but the GFS, the warm air at 925 should turn most of CT, NNJ, Hudson Valley (south of Newburgh) to some rain. Below are snow maps for the NE - note the GFS rapidly melts all the snow in the next few frames after the one shown.
2-19 afternoon - Euro shifts further south, keeps most of tristate in snow. 3-6". Do the others follow? How much further south will this trend?
and as a teaser - here's whats happening on the 25th - double digit snow!
2-19 Back from vacation
The GFS/Euro and Nam shifted south with the latest, as they no longer deepen the slp to our west and instead shear it out. This would be usual for the GFS, which is why it trends to go nw in time, but with NAM and Euro, I think the current air mass, and the next one, are just too strong to push the storm into Detroit. So right now, we are again, on the r/s line, but again, should be a couple inches down, with some freezing drizzle after the 850's warm. That is if the 850's even warm, which the NAM and Euro are struggling with for Danbury. GFS still blows the 850 to the MA border, but after the bulk of precip passes. Areas south have less snow, more rain of course.
2-20 late evening. 0z Nam and 0z Gfs are all snow events now, with 850s below 0 the entire time and surface temps around 33f at the highest. Nam has .75 QPF, gfs has .52. 4-6 is a good call.
2-20 No further trend south. We should be getting 3-6" on a front end thump, if not a little more. 850 temps on all but the GFS support snow. Problem is surface temps get above freezing near the end of the event. Do we trust models with a deep snowpack? They are only a degree or two above freezing, but also at 925. The 925mb temp (2k feet) is more reliable with a snowpack, so while 850 and 1000-500 thickness supports a 100% snow event for all but the GFS, the warm air at 925 should turn most of CT, NNJ, Hudson Valley (south of Newburgh) to some rain. Below are snow maps for the NE - note the GFS rapidly melts all the snow in the next few frames after the one shown.
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| NAM |
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| GFS |
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| Euro |
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| CMC/RGEM |
2-19 afternoon - Euro shifts further south, keeps most of tristate in snow. 3-6". Do the others follow? How much further south will this trend?
and as a teaser - here's whats happening on the 25th - double digit snow!
2-19 Back from vacation
The GFS/Euro and Nam shifted south with the latest, as they no longer deepen the slp to our west and instead shear it out. This would be usual for the GFS, which is why it trends to go nw in time, but with NAM and Euro, I think the current air mass, and the next one, are just too strong to push the storm into Detroit. So right now, we are again, on the r/s line, but again, should be a couple inches down, with some freezing drizzle after the 850's warm. That is if the 850's even warm, which the NAM and Euro are struggling with for Danbury. GFS still blows the 850 to the MA border, but after the bulk of precip passes. Areas south have less snow, more rain of course.
Saturday, February 14, 2015
2-17 or 2-18
2-14. Brief vacation notes morning runs
Cmc and euro suppressed, out to sea
Ukie, gfs, gfes, Dgex, navgem all benchmark storm, with Dgex being inside.
Nothing on JMA.
Cmc and euro suppressed, out to sea
Ukie, gfs, gfes, Dgex, navgem all benchmark storm, with Dgex being inside.
Nothing on JMA.
Wednesday, February 4, 2015
Feb 7-10
2-9 Eeked out 4", barely. Snowed lightly for several days
2-7 NAM finally caving, GFS/Euro steady on a 3-6" snow event Monday, with total 4-8. Nothing terribly heavy though. R/S line remains between DXR and NYC, but NAM and UK are trending south. I like the NWS 4-6 call with winter storm watch. Don't like the ice, though I see they are getting it from the SREF's which has a mostly ice scenario. I'd look for that to shift to more snow as it catches up to the 12z NAM.
Light snow this morning, dusted ground. I've held off on this one due to a huge spread in the models, with the NAM having almost nothing falling, with the waves going to our north. GFS/Euro are south and producing qpf over a stretch of time, but not a lot in one segment. However, NAM finally caved to moving more precip south. Also moving south on the 12z run is the 850 line which still runs north of i84, but not by much. If this is a trend, could be interesting. If it stays as is, NAM has a lot of ice. NAM Snow map still has us in 1-3 inch range. Also watching possible record cold temps for Presidents weekend - GFS had -29F for dxr Sat morning. Its backed down to -11 now, but also brings it to -12 on Monday 12z. UKIE 12z run today keeps CT in the below 0 at 850 for the duration, but has pre lp bulk of precip to our north.
2-5 Almost thinking to call this off. Euro still holding onto it, but shifted pretty far north, enough to bring some freezing rain in. GFS still snow, but NAM moves the frontal area so far north we get nothing.
2-4 This will have to change since its really odd, but there is a prolonged light snow event from the 7th to the 10th. Best to look at the printouts to describe - on the maps there is nothing quite strong, but a prolonged easterly fetch possibly causing this. The highest 6hr precip rate is .25 or 2-3 inches of snow. GFS and Euro are similar on this. UKMET has a weak LP slowly moving from WV to NC/SC up to hr 144.
The following show that the high pressure to our north brings the winds from the ENE for several days until a stronger LP is formed off shore.
2-7 NAM finally caving, GFS/Euro steady on a 3-6" snow event Monday, with total 4-8. Nothing terribly heavy though. R/S line remains between DXR and NYC, but NAM and UK are trending south. I like the NWS 4-6 call with winter storm watch. Don't like the ice, though I see they are getting it from the SREF's which has a mostly ice scenario. I'd look for that to shift to more snow as it catches up to the 12z NAM.
Light snow this morning, dusted ground. I've held off on this one due to a huge spread in the models, with the NAM having almost nothing falling, with the waves going to our north. GFS/Euro are south and producing qpf over a stretch of time, but not a lot in one segment. However, NAM finally caved to moving more precip south. Also moving south on the 12z run is the 850 line which still runs north of i84, but not by much. If this is a trend, could be interesting. If it stays as is, NAM has a lot of ice. NAM Snow map still has us in 1-3 inch range. Also watching possible record cold temps for Presidents weekend - GFS had -29F for dxr Sat morning. Its backed down to -11 now, but also brings it to -12 on Monday 12z. UKIE 12z run today keeps CT in the below 0 at 850 for the duration, but has pre lp bulk of precip to our north.
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| 2-6 nam |
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| 2-7 0z nam |
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| 2-7 12z nam |
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| GFS snow totals 9" is pink |
2-5 Almost thinking to call this off. Euro still holding onto it, but shifted pretty far north, enough to bring some freezing rain in. GFS still snow, but NAM moves the frontal area so far north we get nothing.
2-4 This will have to change since its really odd, but there is a prolonged light snow event from the 7th to the 10th. Best to look at the printouts to describe - on the maps there is nothing quite strong, but a prolonged easterly fetch possibly causing this. The highest 6hr precip rate is .25 or 2-3 inches of snow. GFS and Euro are similar on this. UKMET has a weak LP slowly moving from WV to NC/SC up to hr 144.
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| Euro printout |
 | ||
| GFS printout |
The following show that the high pressure to our north brings the winds from the ENE for several days until a stronger LP is formed off shore.
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Monthly summaries
January
TOTALS FOR DXR
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 52 TOTAL PRECIP 4.06
LOWEST TEMPERATURE -3 TOTAL SNOWFALL 16.5
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 23.8 NORMAL PRECIP 3.76
DEPARTURE FROM NORM -3.6 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 108
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1269
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 1167
15 days with snow on the ground, but first real snowfall was on 1/22.
Low temp at house was 1
December
TOTALS FOR DXR
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 61 TOTAL PRECIP 4.56
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 13 TOTAL SNOWFALL 0.4
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 35.2 NORMAL PRECIP 4.16
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +2.9 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 110
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 916
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 1015
6 days with snow on the ground
2 nights with lows in the teens at the house.
TOTALS FOR DXR
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 52 TOTAL PRECIP 4.06
LOWEST TEMPERATURE -3 TOTAL SNOWFALL 16.5
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 23.8 NORMAL PRECIP 3.76
DEPARTURE FROM NORM -3.6 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 108
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1269
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 1167
15 days with snow on the ground, but first real snowfall was on 1/22.
Low temp at house was 1
December
TOTALS FOR DXR
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 61 TOTAL PRECIP 4.56
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 13 TOTAL SNOWFALL 0.4
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 35.2 NORMAL PRECIP 4.16
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +2.9 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 110
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 916
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 1015
6 days with snow on the ground
2 nights with lows in the teens at the house.
Feb 5th
2-4 - same idea as below 1-2 inches possible HV and CT.
2-3 In a previous post I mentioned a series of dates where we were open to snowstorms.
For the 5th, its looking like its just offshore. Should affect Eastern Mass, and Long Island. 6z GFS is furthest east (of course, but at least it has it now. 0z Euro has it just east of the BM. CMC is close to Euro. NAM 0z is a little too far east for anything, 6z is close in just east of BM, 12z moved east and didn't phase it as early as the 6z or Euro. RGEM develops just east of BM, but brushes us. UKMET focuses on northern stream, so it snows, just that much. 12z GFS still east of the BM.
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| GFS |
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| Euro |
So for now, 1-2 inches due to the passing shortwave in the northern branch.
Storm 3 - could be the one! (spoiler, it was)
2/9 Set up is an upper low over TX that heads northeast into TN valley and then transfers off the coast. At the upper levels, there's ...
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For DXR, Dec 1 to Feb 28, temps 1.6 above average, snow for entire season, 35-40 inches. Lots of ice and rain. 14 days with snow. 2 storms...
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While its still 10 days off, the GFS is picking up an enormous trough for the eastern part of the country with the 0 line at 850mb (where it...
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12-20 - post mortem - this was the day it was supposed to hit. After witnessing model flip flops from way ots to 30 inches in Millville and...