December 16-17

Results:  we didn't get a foot.  10.5" which isn't bad, but not a foot. Some areas in PA/NY/VT/NH got 40+".  Instead the storm came too far north, then dry slotted us.  Heavy band came through around midnight and then just scattered snow showers.  We did not turn to sleet, though it may have mixed. No pinging, no ice on branches, no crusty layers.

Dry slot after midnight

Long loop of storm regional

long loop of storm

SPC evolution of the storm

Then from NJ north

48 hours out the NAM Kuchera map was the closest with the heaviest snows in the right areas, while the fringe areas were a little off. 

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 It's pretty evident we are getting a foot of snow.  Here's the latest maps.  Almost all have at least 10" or more.   Its not a complicated system, just a weak low throwing warm air into a new cold air mass.  No phasing, though a weak upper low is going to stall the storm briefly in the NJ area.  Biggest concerns have been the GFS being so far south, which corrected today. 

So now its whether the track shifts too far north or west, or if it gets suppressed (which is looking less likely). 

So here are the 12z snow maps from today.

Plus the NWS forecast

With the exception of the GFS which pulled north, and the NAM and Icon somewhat pulling north, most runs were very consistent.  QPFs in the 1-1.5"range for most of the tri state with higher amounts on some runs and the nam3k.   Other things to watch are mixing on coast, dry slotting which is showing up in the Nam3k.  Northern cut off will be shar, likely just north of Albany-Boston.