Haven't posted yet on this as it does not seem to be a snow event. What should happen is the storm should run to the lakes with secondary development just off the coast.
Right now, all models show this. The difference is in timing and the eastern extent of the primary low. They are waffling between bringing the low to the lakes, then east over MI and NY where it secondaries, and bringing it west of the lakes, where it dies and the secondary forms in GA and runs up the coast. The first results in precip in on Christmas eve/morn, the latter with precip Christmas night into saturday. All models have the 540 thickness line going into Canada, so it will change to rain. The models also backload the precip - meaning that all the precip falls after the 0 line at 850 crosses. This is suspect. There is a high located in Canada, sliding off to the east which puts cold damming in to play. If the precip comes early, which the mets are progging, then there will be a period of sleet and freezing rain. If we can get the secondary stronger, it could be more interesting.
Storm 3 - could be the one! (spoiler, it was)
2/9 Set up is an upper low over TX that heads northeast into TN valley and then transfers off the coast. At the upper levels, there's ...
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For DXR, Dec 1 to Feb 28, temps 1.6 above average, snow for entire season, 35-40 inches. Lots of ice and rain. 14 days with snow. 2 storms...
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While its still 10 days off, the GFS is picking up an enormous trough for the eastern part of the country with the 0 line at 850mb (where it...
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12-20 - post mortem - this was the day it was supposed to hit. After witnessing model flip flops from way ots to 30 inches in Millville and...
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Christmas ended up with a few inches on the ground, here and in Central Park. 2002 and 1998 also saw some snow on the ground or air. Otherwise, you need to go back to the 60's per the nws site.
About 8pm or so on Christmas night, sleet began to fall with temps between 32 and 33degrees. Sleet covered all the surfaces, but with temps remaining near or above freezing, and being above freezing all day we did not have much freezing rain. Mostly sleet as the roads and sidwalks became a mess overnite.
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