2-26 Update on the indices - AO and NAO not making it to neutral before going positive again, PNA not making it to neutral before going negative again. Still signals for blowtorch, which we are not getting, but it should be warm with the trough in the west, ridge in the east.
2-25
For me and the weather. Most models showing a warmup for 3/1-3/7. I'll be out west dealing with their snow.
Longer term, the AO moves to neutral, the NAO moves to neutral and the PNA moves to neutral. Should the PNA go postive, AO and NAO go negative, cold and snow again. GFS ens and CMC ens just show a more zonal, normal look, with a little more trough in the west than the east and flat in between. So not overly supportive of real cold.
Otherwise, with average temps getting into the mid forties, we should be coming out of this soon.
Storm 3 - could be the one! (spoiler, it was)
2/9 Set up is an upper low over TX that heads northeast into TN valley and then transfers off the coast. At the upper levels, there's ...
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For DXR, Dec 1 to Feb 28, temps 1.6 above average, snow for entire season, 35-40 inches. Lots of ice and rain. 14 days with snow. 2 storms...
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While its still 10 days off, the GFS is picking up an enormous trough for the eastern part of the country with the 0 line at 850mb (where it...
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12-20 - post mortem - this was the day it was supposed to hit. After witnessing model flip flops from way ots to 30 inches in Millville and...
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