Thaw - winter break

2-18 - reality. Airport got to 59. My backyard got to 61! Awesome day!

2-17 high of 55 at dxr. 53 on the stick and 59 in the sun on the shed.
Satellite pic not too encouraging at this point as the warm front isn't really lifting ne, but kinda se.



2-11

The last snow was three days ago. The stronger Feb sun has been able to melt some snow despite temps still under freezing and below zero at the airport this morning. The next 10 days, with the exception of maybe Tuesday the 15th, should have highs above freezing. I'm hoping that by the 19th we will see a day in the 60's as the models are usually underdone on warmer temps this time of year. With no precip of significance showing up on the models, this is a great time to melt some snow. Only 22 inches until the grass shows up!

After the 19th, a zonal pattern sets in where we should be seeing less extremes, but wavering between above normal and below normal temps. With the AO and NAO positive, PNA negative, there's a stronger argument for more ridging and warmer temps though. If that pattern lasts as long as the other two patterns we've had (neg PNA/pos ao/pos nao and pos pna/neg ao/neg nao) this warmth could play until the middle of March, thus just about ending winter. But that's an if...