12-12
GFS runs have warmed for any storms between now and then and flow continues mostly from the sw with a brief cold shot every 4-5 days or so. Euro lost the look that had me excited where the northern and southern were looking like they would phase over VA around the 24th. Now they remain separate as the timing is off. But there could be a clipper heading down on the 23rd. CMC has similar look to Euro, although it keeps us closer to normal with temps and the flow of systems is more out of the NW than SW as the GFS has. It too looks like a clipper could hit prior to the holidays.
12-10 - nothing but storms to the Great Lakes for the Euro
GFS 0z had nothing but rain, cutters and fronts. Christmas beautiful near 50.
6z was interesting with close calls on the 19th, 20th, 21st
12z had only a storm possibly on the 24th (see below)
CMC just like Euro, only cutters with chances of rain.
Can't even get it cold enough to get some overrunning with the warm fronts!
Provide a summary of the model runs for storms which may affect Fairfield County. Not a forecast, but summary of trends, positions and precip type/amount
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Storm 3 - could be the one! (spoiler, it was)
2/9 Set up is an upper low over TX that heads northeast into TN valley and then transfers off the coast. At the upper levels, there's ...
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For DXR, Dec 1 to Feb 28, temps 1.6 above average, snow for entire season, 35-40 inches. Lots of ice and rain. 14 days with snow. 2 storms...
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While its still 10 days off, the GFS is picking up an enormous trough for the eastern part of the country with the 0 line at 850mb (where it...
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12-20 - post mortem - this was the day it was supposed to hit. After witnessing model flip flops from way ots to 30 inches in Millville and...
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