Three major teleconnections to look at in the winter are the PNA, NAO and AO. A positive PNA typically results in ridging in the west, trough in the east, thus cold here. Negative NAO typically results in colder than normal and storminess, increased blocking as well. Negative AO typically results in cold air leaving the poles and heading south, leading to cold. Here are the teleconnections for today. Black line is the observed value.
As you can see, the AO is extremely neg, perhaps near record. PNA is fairly positive and NAO fairly negative. Yet today, we had a quick moving storm (not blocked) with rain and it reached 48 degrees at DXR, 13 degrees above normal.Heck even the EPO is barely negative, so you can't blame that either. Just one of those winters.
Provide a summary of the model runs for storms which may affect Fairfield County. Not a forecast, but summary of trends, positions and precip type/amount
Storm 3 - could be the one! (spoiler, it was)
2/9 Set up is an upper low over TX that heads northeast into TN valley and then transfers off the coast. At the upper levels, there's ...
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For DXR, Dec 1 to Feb 28, temps 1.6 above average, snow for entire season, 35-40 inches. Lots of ice and rain. 14 days with snow. 2 storms...
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While its still 10 days off, the GFS is picking up an enormous trough for the eastern part of the country with the 0 line at 850mb (where it...
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12-20 - post mortem - this was the day it was supposed to hit. After witnessing model flip flops from way ots to 30 inches in Millville and...
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