Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Harvey

8-31  Harvey radar loop from Tropical cyclone radar loops

8-30

Harvey 6 days later.  Finally downgraded to a remnant low, but not before dumping over 47" of rain on Beaumont/Port Arthur, 26 of which came in one day.  Some parts of Houston ended with over 50" of rain setting new records. See graphic from 8-29 for those totals.



8-29  Harvey 5 days later







8-24  At one a.m. the advisory was for 45mph with pressure of 1001.  4am 45mph and 995.  7am 60mph 986 mb.  10am 65mph 982mb.  12 cdt it became a hurricane with 80mph winds. 1pm it was 85mph with 979mb.  4pm 976mb.  7pm 974mb.   4pm disco had it maxing out at 125mph.  Just yesterday the question was would it achieve hurricane status.

 Models are still out there....some bring it inland, some leave it stalled on the coast.  30+" of rain is not out of the question in some areas.  Surge of 10 feet is expected.  Wave hights on surfline were 22ft onshore with 42ft swells offshore. Latest GFS has it sitting over TX from Friday until next Saturday afternoon.  12z Euro had it stalling on the coast, then tracking up the coast slowly and intensifying as it hit Port Arthur/Sabine Pass.

first landfall 12z saturday 8-26
Then back out
And up to the pass
Meanwhile the NAM brings it further down South Texas.

meanwhile, recon is coming in with 970mb as I type.  An eye seems to want to say hi.

CMC seems lost with pressure 14mb higher than now. And further south

than the nam
NAM precip totals - 35" was the highest I could find
18z GFS totals - 25"was the highest
Euro totals.  Galveston at 29.36" other areas over 30"



8-23  Harvey began east of Barbados, went through the islands, fell apart, went through the Yucatan and now is gaining organization.  Currently a tropical depression until higher winds are found.  Visible sat looks like its there organizationally.


Yesterday's GFS runs had a remarkable 40+" rainfall with 20+ on the Euro for SE TX.  Euro still is at 24" for Galveston, GFS has backed off into the 20s as well, with Houston getting 15".  Today Euro is down to 18" and GFS at 15" for GLS.  

NAM forecast Gif


Harvey, 5 days later...



No comments:

Post a Comment

Storm 3 - could be the one! (spoiler, it was)

 2/9  Set up is an upper low over TX that heads northeast into TN valley and then transfers off the coast. At the upper levels, there's ...