Groundhog day

2-2 Results.  Despite it getting down to the 33 degree mark around 7pm, it took until about 1:30 to change to snow.  It seems like there is a layer of ice, sleet, then crunchy snow everywhere.  Schools delayed.  Measured just under a half inch, close enough to call it that as it didn't get into the sleet layer much.
 Picture of radar at 1:30am

 Flurrying out as I type.  The NW corner got 2-4 inches

1-30  Still looks more like a frontal passage. The 700mb vertical velocity is pretty impressive though the boundary layer is warm south of NYC  From GFS - could be good quick dump either rain or snow.

NAM is a bit more optimistic

CMC not so much

Euro puts down .2 qpf on its text, with 850s supporting snow and sfc temps 1.6c to -2.8C







1-29 This is becoming more of a frontal passage situation.  The odd thing is it may end up being anafrontal, precip coming in the form of snow after the front passes as the trough tries to go negative, bringing moisture up the backside of the front.

What we need to watch is that a low doesn't pop off NJ right before this, not to dissimilar from todays situation with a wave riding up the front.  This is demonstrated by the ICON model

1-27 So like the storm a few days before this, another frontal passage with a wave of low pressure moving up. Not too much time for analysis, but here are some pics for the record.  Looks like a minor event today, not so the previous days on the GFS.  So something else to watch.  Also the 6th?

yesterdays jma

1/27 evening - NAM trending?