7-13 Crazy Beryl remnants firing up off the coast today. Its moving away and has little moisture to work with as its entire western half is quite dry air.
7-7 Crazy Beryl got knocked around overnight and is now exposed with no convection around its center. They've downgraded to TS and winds of 60.
7-6 Quite the overachiever Beryl is. NHC initial guidance was 40mph max winds in their intial disco at 11am yesterday. In the 5pm update it was at 50mph with max winds predicted at 75mph. An eye appeared for the 11pm update and the 5am update has it as a hurricane, 75mph with it expected to peak at 85mph.
It should track to the islands and open up afterwards. Its strength at the time of hitting the islands is questionable at this time, but the track is pretty straightforward at least through Monday.
Maybe a bit north or south of this but completely reasonable. Its a
very small storm, eye is 5 miles wide. Hurricane force winds extend 10
miles from the center and TS force winds 35 miles per 5 am update.
After Monday, its expected that the storm is dissipated - some global and hurricane models show it recurving, others bring it over Jamaica.
And if this isn't enough, there's a disturbance off the coast of the Carolinas that bears watching as this front passes.
7-5 Tropical Depression 2 formed today. Here's a brief look at it and the surrounding environment
Its currently very tiny, with good vorticity, low shear, but little divergence aloft and surrounded by dry air.
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| Low shear |
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| Vorticity |
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| Dry air |
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| Divergence |
NHC also noted that the water temps aren't favorable Cooler than normal in Hurricane Alley
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