9/6 Evening. Euro, Ukie and now the GFS have landfalls on the 12z runs. JMA came to the party going west of 70 as well. NAVGEM is the only one left east of 70 and it hits Bermuda.
The 12z Gfs run is horrifying.
Euro is slightly better. Weaker, less winds.
9/6 Morning - New day, new info, no real changes. NHC last night boldly said that the trough would miss connecting with Florence, which would result in her heading west towards the EC. How much of an influence the trough and Gordon (2) have remains to be seen as it could steer Florence more NW than WNW and bring her to Cuba. Once the trough passes, high pressure and a ridge build (1) over and to the east of Florence, sending her west again.
Also watching steering currents, the anticyclone/ridge (3) in the Atlantic and eventually the storm hitting the PAC NW (4)
0z model summary:
- UKIE - remains furthest south. Not sure why. Likely hits SC
- CMC - middle south - hits NC near SC border
- Euro - in the middle. Hits NC up to NJ.
- GFS - middle north. Misses coast on a recurve, but comes really close to MD to MA
- NAVGEM - east of Bermuda, much slower
- JMA - having problems with getting it. The one run I saw is like the navgem
- Icon NC to NYC
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| 0z Ukie |
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| 0z CMC path |
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| 0z cmc landfall winds |
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| 0z Euro landfall winds |
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| 0z Euro path |
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| 6z GFS closest |
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| 0z Icon |
Look at the NHC models.
Lastly, ensembles are a little more optimistic on it missing.
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| 0z euro ensembles |
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