Mar 4

Results
We had 12" in Newtown, with some getting 14" in CT.  All snow!

2-28  The time frame has split into thirds.  3/1 light snow, 3/2 storm, 3/4 storm.  This may NOT be the last of the snow either before it warms up for St Patricks day (hopefully).

Much of this was mixed in with the 3-2 post, which has now developed into its own nor'reaster. 

This is from my post at  WX Disco

Storm moves fast.  Enters south of San Fran on Saturday.   Its a pretty zonal flow ahead and confluent to the north.  Argues for it to move W-E

24 hrs the Upper Low (in Red) is halfway across, slightly south of entry.  Surface low forms in Blue over AL.  No ridge in front.
Normally you'd look for energy behind it to form a deeper trough, forcing it to move north.  But that energy is strung out and not diving down. There's not much forcing the storm north.

By the end of the run the surface low is off NJ.  The Upper low is barely recognizable over KY.  Its just a bit north of the latitude it entered.  Something has moved it a bit  north, I just cant see what.
Surface low in blue is over SNJ.  The troughs aren't lined up and while the NWS in Upton says that there is phasing, to me it seems that the energy in the northern stream stays separate.
The green lines are various trough axis.  The northern trough is positively tilted. The middle trough more neutral, but this is more of an opinion than fact.
You can argue there is some negative tilt in the middle trough, but my point is more that they aren't aligned very well.  This may change.  But I wonder if you play this out a few more frames does that energy in the upper midwest push the storm further east, or does it dive further down and bring the storm further north.  It looks to me with the trough orientation that it pushes it out.

Things that can go wrong:  Our main energy hits CA in 40 hrs.  How accurate is that without sampling? 
The energy on the SE side of the green line by the lakes is actually over Canada now.  The energy behind the green line over MN/ND and Canada isn't sampled yet. How much influence does that have if its not correctly modeled. 
The adage that the latitude a storm enters it exits is appropriate due to the zonal flow.  In this case its a little off at the 500mb level.  Ideally it would be exiting over the DelMarVa.  
Lastly does the Saturday system muck things up ahead of this.  If that develops further, what happens?  There's also two shortwaves at hr 45 - one near Idaho the other over the lakes that can throw things off a bit.