12-18 wind rain storm

 Setup for this next storm is very interesting and involves 4, sometimes 5 parts. 

1 is a weird tropical like system. 3 will drop into 2 and merge.  3/2 will then grab 1. 4 is the steering mechanism. We've been waiting to see where 4 will be or if it further combines with the now 321 storm.

At this time, 4 seems to be separate. Maybe that forms another low once the cold air is in place and we can see a little snow. Surfacewise, it looks like this.

With a semi tropical system coming from the Gulf getting enhanced by another upper level system, there will be a lot of moisture and wind. 

Rainfall totals in the tristate likely exceed 3" and may get to 5"

6z GFS

6Z NAM

6z Euro on NY

Wind is also going to be a concern.  The last storm did produce 50+ mph gusts, though it was not widespread and focused on coastal locations. Due to different wind alignments, more mixing down of the winds may happen this storm and wind advisories and high wind warnings are up for the tristate and New England. Winds will be the highest from the Jersey Shore and Hudson river on east. NAM/GFS/Euro all in agreement with gusts in the 50kt range.

Euro gusts CT/LI/RI

NAM Gusts SNE

GFS gusts

This is the official map from Upton, but only goes to 7am Monday.

Coastal flooding is also an issue, though the moon was a crescent last night. This is a busy page from the NWS but at 3' above flood stage, it's pretty serious.  12-16' breakers on oceanfacing beaches. 3-6' breakers on the CT coast. Surge of 3.5 to 5ft possible. A lot depends on timing of the windshift either before or after low tide.  In addition, there's a lot of rain coming down the rivers still from last week, plus another 3+" of rain before the high tide will really bear watching along rivers.

HRRR trying to pinpoint those higher gusts. 75mph over central LI and 65mph over Newtown.

Officially widespread 50+ gusts reported 

with some 60's in RI/SEMA and unofficially in LI/CT on Wunderground stations

Plenty of 60s reported by the NWS including Stamford, Fairfield, Robbins Reef (66mph), Larchmont Harbor (64mph), Northport, Tappan Zee Light 14 had 65mph. 

Locally I had 2.8" of rain as of 8am, but it is still raining, and Oxford airport reported gusts in the 50s. Two trees uprooted, no power outage.  Danbury had 4.43, Oakland NJ had 5.24, Verona had 4.83, Ringwood had 5.1", Cornwall on the Hudson had 5.03".It was still raining at all these sites. 

Power outages were widespread with 83k in CT, 148k in Mass and over 100k in Maine so far. NH also has 40k but didn't make the top five.  Other states in the mid atlantic saw 10-20k in outages. 

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