12-20 part two

12-19 all 0z models showing major storm now.
0z nam bumps us down to 2 inches, but 6z back over a foot
0z GFS has atleast a foot, down to 10 inches for 6z
All models have storm rapidly deepning, tucking in around Delaware Bay, moving near or over the benchmark later.
NWS - 6-10 inches (8-14 in WSW)
AW has 6-7 inches on its alarm, but 3-6 on snow map
WU has 7-11, twc 6-12, WTNH has 8, wfsb 10-14, wvit 8-14, wcbs 6-10, wabc 3-6 (uses aw) GFS snow map pinches us off with only 6. Nam has 12-16


12-18LAtest GFS 0z precip total. Looks like at least a foot. Nam backed way off though....

12-19 Clipper or Southern Branch

12-18 - midday. GFS finally putting snow down .25-.5 as the storm tracks just off NJ. CAN goes nuts as does wrf which has .5-.75, but the 2in line is at LI. Seems way too tight of a precip gradient and these normally shift north. Plus ratios will be higher in CT. UKMet is furthest east and is weakest. The weaker the storm, the further east. GFS Ensemble has it at the benchmark at 984. How many storms fail to produce when at the benchmark with cold air around? Just in -the HRW - with no precip further north than DE.

AW forecast for Danbury is 3-6. 4 on the weather alert. With HM calling 1-3

NWS winter storm watch of 10am says 5-10 possible

DR Mel - 4-10 with highest east ct and near shore
AW having major issues with connectivity

some pix from the morning

12-16 Euro a bit further east, but still affects us,
GFS 18z run brings right off shore with .25 to .5 inches output
CAN brings one storm out to sea, but reforms another closer to shore. That part looks like the clipper actually.
UKMET brings up to hatteras then out to sea, no effect.
JAP goes a little further east but still hits us.
Nogaps goes up to Hatteras and out to sea, no effect. Has trailing clipper system hitting on Tuesday.
NWS has 30% chance of snow on Saturday
AW has nothing

12-15 UKmet - 0z run way out to sea, 12 z run a little further north but still way out
Euro - 0z right off NJ. 12 z SC to cape cod
CAN - va capes to li. 12 z - hilton head due NE out to sea
NGaps - 0z in near nj. 12z moved east but still hits
GFS - Hangs off the coast too far. 12z moves further north but then out NE.
JAP - a little further east than yesterday, but still hits hard.
NWS - only mentioned chance of energy coming through in discussion
AW - nothing
TWC - chance of snow showers.


12- 14 - Euro onto southern stream storm phasing with northern sw, but on 12/20. GFS still out to sea. DGEX has clipper and it snows for 42 hours. Nogaps onto clipper diving in and reforming off the coast, as is the CAN for the 19th. UKMet only has southern stream and keeps well south. NWS has chance of snow on Sunday. AW has nothing.

12-13 - I see nothing anywhere


12-12 GFS and UKMET and Dgex have small clipper with 2-4 inches coming through on 12-19. Euro has no clipper but a storm over GA. Can has storm starting in TX panhandle at 144.

Drying out in December?

Here is a look at the second to last week, total precip for the week. Wow - while I don't care for dry cold air, this would be amazing if it panned out, that 95% of the country only gets under .5 inches of precip for the week. For the next 15 days, the GFS total precip output for CT is .2 inches.

12-13 long shot

12-12 - WRF has some snow to start, as does GFS, but less than an inch, lasting 1-2 hrs. No other model looks like it precips until 0 at 850 line passes north, or as it passes.

12-11 - Nam has all rain. GFS puts an inch down before changing to rain -looks to form northwest of benchmark. The accum snow map is off already as we have several inches on the ground not being picked up by the gfs. NAM and GFS almost look like the northern stream sw has too much and reforms over long island, essentially moving west to east. CAN has the most front loaded before changing to rain, and does not warm aloft all that much - keeps the low over the benchmark. UKMEt backloads it - all rain. Cant tell with the euro as its interval is too great - looks backloaded, but never has us in the precip field. Call is snow, freezing rain to rain, within 2 hours. Then light rain or drizzle with high of 36.

12-9 - Euro has low moving from upper plains, northern ohio and directly over us, resulting in another WAA situation. CMC 12z run looks completely bizarre with no low or precip at all, instead temps way above normal on Tuesday - its sunday low is in florida. UKMET has a low sort of forming on sunday off the coast, but has a real low west to east across the GLakes and to our north on Tuesday. DGEX has it clocking us, but the 540 line is north of us. GFS has it going to our south with a light snow event. Literally, all over the map for 4 days away.

12-8 GFS still has coastal, but actually looks like its warming aloft even though the low is east of us. Very odd. Euro has low going to lakes?? odd. Pushes through warm front. UK met has it off shore and looks good. DGEX out to sea.

12-6 - Euro and Gfs (hr168) have this little 1016 feature off the coast for 12-13. DGEX has it going straight east off GA. Official forecast from NWS and accuweather is sunny 35.

12-7 - Euro and GFS still on this thing. DGEX goes south.

12/9 storm

12-8 - not looking good as secondary forms too close. GFS still has on its 18z run a half inch of precip falling before the 0 line goes north of here. But while temps are now below freezing, dew points are in the mid 20s which is too high for a WAA event to produce much snow. 1-3 is pushing it, unless we can get the precip in faster and heavier to start. What was front loaded is now evenly spread.

12-7 - didn't take long to get excited about this one. Its really tough though. The 18z GFS has 0 line on s shore of li at 18z with 6hr precip preceding this time at .5. 32 line at surface cuts the nw corner of CT. Accumlated snow map shows 6 inches which is down from the foot it showed at 12z

18z Nam has the 0 at 850 line south of Trenton. Sim radar has heavy snow falling with up to .5 output in preceding 6 hrs. Also shows stronger secondary storm than gfs above. Nam has temps just below 32 for danbury until 15z and the 0 at 850 until 18z. Accum snow map also shows 6-8 inches on the ground.

Again - I'll believe it when I see a temp under 25 Tuesday when I go to bed.

12-6 - all models, including ukmet blow this to our west. GFS still shows a lot of precip falling before 850 line goes north of us. Not so with NAM. Other models are hard to tell with the 12 hr increments, but they do show some support for a little snow to begin. All have quick turnover to rain. With no serious cold air in place and a 1024 high a little too far NE, this is likely a nonaccum event. Will only post on this further if snow amounts can become defined, or if serious cold (sub 25) happens tuesday night.

Not calling it snowstom yet. CAN double barrels it way to our west. Euro drives it right over us. Nogaps right over us. GFS to our north, but not to the lakes like CAN. UKMEt - has blizzard up the east coast. and this is 5 days away! Most have it starting as snow, changing to rain and possibly ending as snow. all have it way colder afterwards

12/5-6 snow

12-4 gfs 12z snow map. Wow did this change from yesterday

UKMET from 0z 12-3 with 6+ inches


0z euro 12-3 with 2-3 inches, but mostly offshore



0z can 12-3 with mostly off shore, and dusting

WRF has 1-2 inch storm
GFS snowcover is nada - it brings it up to dc then disappears

12-4 models all shifting west. As of 12z, ukmet so far west with the 540 thickness line, that its a rain event (despite below freezing at 5000 feet). Nam also very close to all rain, even GFS is pushed back to have some rain. CAN crushes us, as does EURO. too bad they don't have precip outputs.

AO, NAO, PNA - should be cold

For Dec 1-15, PNA is mostly positive (ridging in west), NAO is relatively strongly negative, and the AO is very, very negative. Should result in very cold, dry weather. But the GFS only has it marginally cold with every storm cutting to the lakes. Very contradictory.