Noise in the Carribean

5-25 -Beryl named 11pm. Very odd track, particularly on Euro, where it heads southwest into and across FL, into Gulf, then turns around back NE right along the coast up to OBX before it heads out.

5-23 GFS and NAM have that Caribbean impulse forming a tropical low off the SE coast and pulling back into Fl. Euro still shows impulse but no formation. GFS still has another one going up the coast and out to sea around the June 1/2 time frame. Two storms in May off the US is unheard of. NHC not on this one yet, but Henry posted an alert. http://ow.ly/b68MJ . JB is on it as well, actually got on it yesterday too.http://t.co/vJytff7o. Evening: NHc puts out circle of concern, finally. But put chances at near zero.

5-22 GFS and Euro making some noise out of the garbage forming in the W. Caribbean for later this week. GFS brings an impulse out into the W Atlantic over the weekend, but then heads it west into FL. Euro forms a 1008 low, but it dissipates. GFS brings another impulse up a front, which needs to be watched as well, but it looks more barometrically formed than tropically formed.

Early trop storm?

5/19 - Alberto forms right off the coast today

5/16

Euro still has disorganized low pressures over the gulfsteam from 5/18-5/22, with some consolidation over nyc on the 22nd. GFS 0z has nothing. 6z run has a disorganized 1012 low spinning off a front to the nw of Bermuda. Nogaps is similar to euro with disorganized, but low pressures, consolidating on the 22nd but off the delmarva. Ukmet has a 1010 low spinning over the gulfstream at 35N from the 19th to 21st. JMA forms a 1010 off the OBX on the 22nd and shows that the impulses are coming up from the gulf and tropics that are forming this.


5/14

GFS still has on the 24th. Euro doesn't, but leaves a lot of energy for the fronts to spin up a storm. Just to clarify yesterdays statement - storm would be off the coast.


5/13

Keeping eye on SE coast for the 22-26th. Looked more impressive this mornings Euro, but still a weak trop storm on the 12z.

NAM pic from 6z run on 4/25


Would be very fitting if this were to occur. An end of April snow storm. Would be about the same as an end of October storm. Yeah its a long shot, but surprising to see it even in the cards.

Wrap up and April fools

3.29

Snow stays in northern CT, with Catskills and Berkshires getting 2-4. Still keeping an eye on it.

3.28

All 0z/6z models have snow in the air. Timing from Fri into Sat (3/31) or Sat into Sun (4/1). NAM puts down 4 inches, CMC is also aggressive. Euro puts snow down too, but not more than an inch. GFS puts it in the air, but no accum in the immediate area.

Longer term - GFS is interesting as it keeps the 0@850 line in our area and brings a few weak storms across while we are under 0@850.

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Euro op and ens go to a surprise snow April 1-2. GFS not on it now. GFS does make it cold after April 6 though. Interesting.

As I write this, March is over 10 degrees above normal for DXR. We had no measurable snow this month. And its been dry, with only .49 of precip (15% of normal).

Feb came in at 4 above normal with 1.6" of precip (half normal) and 6" of snow.
Jan was 4.8 above normal with 2.6" precip (70% of normal) and 6" of snow.
Dec was 4.8 above normal with 5.24" of precip (125% of normal) and no snow.

The average departure from normal for Met Winter (12/1 - 3/1) was 4 above with 12" of snow.
The average departure from normal for Std Winter was 6 above with 12" of snow.
Total snow so including Oct storm is 30"

Forecast from October was 35" of snow (not far off), but for lots of ice and rain. We had no ice storms. Temp was predicted at 1.6 above, which was high compared to the prof mets. The actual was 4 above. So only close for snow due to the freak storm. I'd give myself a C for calling for a warmer than normal, with less snow than normal winter, but missing the departures.

Modified forecast later in Dec brought up the lack of snow in Dec translating into lack of snow in JAN,FEB and MAR. This was a good call.

Reverse psychology

Maybe if I start posting about the upcoming spring weather, it will decide to snow.

After a brief spell of normal to slightly below after the cold front passes on Sat nite, temps rebound into the 50s per accuweather and gfs. Euro ens control even has 70's appearing by the 13th. Even more remarkable is the GFS 18z run had it in the 70's at 6z (2am) on the 16th!

Can't wait - if it isn't going to snow, might as well be warm.

March 1st - PLEASE!

2-25 - GFS moving towards Euro. Euro 0z and 12z runs have all snow for CT north, although the 540 thickness is on the mass border. 850 temps are below 0 to the sound, as are 925 mb temps. Heavier precip and lift will bring down snow, like the wet snow in Oct and yesterday.
GFS at 18z has moved towards the same solution - inching closer and closer each run. Key is the high pressure nosing down from Quebec. Both have really two storms, one on wed , one thurs. Even GFS puts out a few inches in CT now for the Thursday part.

However, in checking the teleconnections, postitive AO, positive NAO and negative PNA should be a blow torch pattern. Hmmm...

2-23 Tale of two runs of the GFS. Here are some pics from the 0z and 6z runs of the gfs for the 1st event and the one on the 2-3rd. Top two are 0z, bottom 6z. dgex snow map is also below. 12z gfs looks like the 0z. Interesting, the Euro ensembles look to put a 980 low over Hartford on the 4th, which would result in a blizzard in n. new england, but rain here. It further bombs to 970 off Maine. 0z Euro operational is a weak 994 low over Ontario. 0z CMC pushes the low through the lakes on the 1st, but does hit VT/NH with some good snow.







2-22
OK - this winter is beginning to get real sad. The ajuga has flowers on it!

Euro and JMA have what could be a big storm (over 6") for March 1st. Euro even has the 850 low just to our SE. 12z GFS is in the lakes with it, but brings one up from the SE on the 3-4th. DGEX has a storm on the 28th bringing marginal snow, but suppresses the one on the 1st in the SE. 0z gfs also supresses it, but has a minor event on the 28th.

Light Snow / squall possible around the 10-11th

2-11 - half inch, if...

2-10 NWS has 2-4 inches for here. Only the NMM WRF shows anything over an inch. Most precip should be in central NJ, LI and SE Mass, where 3-6 is likely. We are more likely getting an inch or two.

2-6 Should be either squalls from an arctic front, or a storm developing, brushing us with light snow on Saturday. NWS has chance at 30%. GFS and Euro not impressive. Cold behind it though - a little later than noted in the earlier post.