Quiet last two weeks of January? maybe not!

1-24 - result 6.5" fell by 7:30, then it just flurried on and off.  Not a bad call.  

1-23 evening

These borderline situations kill me.  Here are temp profiles over time for NAM and GFS.  GFS continues to be the warmest model.  You can see the 0c bubble on the GFS for maybe a 3hr period in the 925-850mb layer, then its below 0, then above at 1000mb (which is basically surface when the pressure is under 1000mb).  NAM below it doesnt have that bubble, though does warm slightly at the lower levels. I continue to believe that 4-6 inches will have fallen by the time we hit the GFS bubble, even on the GFS. NAM, Euro and CMC are all just at or under 0c .  NAM increased precip at least

Euro skew t for the warmest time shows temps aloft mostly at or below 0c (0c is the blue line running to the "northeast" from the 0 at the bottom of the chart, temps and dew points are the white lines).

Sorry no sexy snow maps  - Euro for some reason still going with 3-6 inches, gfs is terrible.  NAM and SREF plumes are >6"  At least NAM and Euro increased precip.

nam precip .75-1

Euro  .75-1 qpf

Sticking with 6+ 



1-23 - The 26th storm is headed south, for now, with minor snow here if any.

Here is my rant from the weather boards on Accuweather from this morning.  Pretty much sums it up.

Maybe its the path/trajectory of the storm or the speed, but with a gulf system coming up the coast and hitting 40/70 (its called the benchmark for a reason), it really bugs me that the US models are so low on qpf for mby. 6zGFS is at .35, 6zNAM .41, Euro .59 (and its inside the BM), NWS has .64, and the JMA and CMC say .75 to 1. Now I don't complain much, nor forecast much, but there's something missing here. I get the thermal issues and how it may mix and cut the snow amounts, but just can't buy under .5"qpf. And the CMC and Euro are slightly closer with the storm but have colder 850s. I mean come on - the NAM routinely spouts out ridiculous precip amts from southern stream storms and on this one, this winter, its one of the lowest? I say 6+ I84 corridor east of the Hudson, including freezing rain that will follow after the main slug of moisture arrives, and .75-1 qpf.

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1-22 afternoon
Rumblings about the 26th and 27th still bear watching.  GFS deepens a clipper as it comes through PA and hits coast.  Thermal profile is great for snow, and it snows from hr 90 (2am on Monday) to hr 120 (7am Tuesday). Total precip for DXR is .79 qpf during that time frame, but its mostly light, averaging .021 per hour.   Still, it could be another 8 inches!

For the 24th Euro backs down amount, stays cold for snow in most of Tristate.  GFS says otherwise, though 12z GFS is now at the Benchmark and drops 20mb to 980 in 12 hrs.  GFS has a 3hr time frame where most of tristate goes above 0 at 925 and 850.  Euro goes to 976 off the Cape.  Brings right inside BM.  Ironically, even though Euro is still further west, its colder than GFS, and GFS further east is wetter (here).   850 temps to compare at time of warmest, and precip:

Euro temps at 850

GFS temps at 850

Euro precip

GFS precip

Both models, as well as the CMC, UKMET still have a 4-8" storm in store for Saturday.  NAM is oddly drier (it tends to overdo precip), and has similar 850/925 temps to the Euro. Takes it over the BM too, but doesn't deepen like the GFS/Euro.  Only goes to 992mb or so.

Nam precip

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1-21 Afternoon

Printout for Euro shows a foot in Danbury but its close
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z JAN21
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SAT 12Z 24-JAN  -2.3    -3.1    1010      78      99    0.00     548     540   
SAT 18Z 24-JAN  -0.6    -0.2     998      90     100    0.24     542     543   
SUN 00Z 25-JAN  -0.1    -2.0     986      84      99    0.72     528     540   
SUN 06Z 25-JAN  -0.8    -5.9     991      78      33    0.12     527     535   

850 temps

1-21 morning - not a lot of precip still for tonites clipper.  Sat/Sun storm taking shape - Euro still has .44 qpf, trending well.  NAM looks great with .5.  CMC is on board.   GFS/navgem/Ukmet are offshore.  Below are scenes from the CMC, Euro and NAM.  Euro 850's are a little cooler than the NAM, but fairly close, showing LI, SNJ, PHL getting rain for a bit.  Should be all snow north/west of NYC.  NAM stops at hr 84, so total accum is underdone by 6hrs. Lastly is the GFS precip map. 

Rumblings of another storm for next mon/tues on the UKMET, Euro, CMC and DGEX - looks to be a clipper that actually gets blocked as it passes and deepens right off the coast.  Varying degrees of intensity, but all models except GFS have it around hr 144.


CMC

Euro precip

Euro 850 temp

NAM hr 84

Nam Precip

GFS precip

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1-20  Still looking at coating to inch or two with the clipper on the 21/22nd.  Euro and GFS have started a trend back west for the system on the 24/25th.   12z Euro puts .3 qpf for a 3-5 inch storm (maybe less due to warmer temps).  GFS has .1 qpf.   UKMET is out to sea, CMC passes east of the benchmark, JMA passes to our southeast too.  DGEX brushes us like the GFS.  Need to watch any further trending west which may result in warmer temps

Euro

GFS

850s on Euro -don't want further n or w

1-19  No changes. Clipper for the 22nd needs watching, but for now is light snow.  Euro control does have a coastal just out to sea on the 25, otherwise its wait until Feb. Euro operational model has it east of the 40/70 with light precip.  Nothing else.  12z GFS has a clipper on the 30th, nothing else. 0z run had nothing.  GFS is supressing any storms, which is something to watch.   CMC has a disorganized system bringing light snow on the 27th/28th.   Temps will range from slightly above normal to 5-10 below normal throughout the last two weeks of Jan, averaging below normal for the month.

1-17  No changes, except timing is earlier, as usual.  Mostly rain on the 18th into the 19th.  Maybe some snow on the back end.  Precip really amped up now on this one with 1.5 to 2" qpf.  Too bad its not going to work out.  Clipper is running south of us on the UKMET, but is moisture starved per CMC and GFS, Euro has .2qpf though.   So we could get an inch or two this week.  Pattern remains cold and dry for most of the time on both long range gfs and euro control.  Storms form out to sea, but need to be watched for trending west. 

1-14  The storm on the 19th is showing up reliably now, but seems to be too warm for much more than an inch or two.  Euro actually has it going over us, for rain. GFS is inside the benchmark, but too warm to start.  UKMET doesnt even have a coastal, instead focuses on the northern clipper (gfs and euro have this too, but it misses us, so I skip mentioning it.)  What it looks like is a storm forming along the front - the Euro holds the front back, so it rains. The GFS brings the front through with some rain, but develops the lp just to our south in time to throw back some snow. CMC and DGEX form the storm well after the front passes. 

1-13  No weather events yet. Seasonable temps, cold now to start, warming, then cold and warm.  Nothing record breaking or interesting.   While no storms are on any models today, there are some lurking off shore on the 19th, 23rd and 27th on the GFS.  Nothing but some light snow from a clipper on the Euro.

12z gfs total precip through 1-29

0z Euro total precip through 1-23

1-15 Why meteorology is difficult

1-10 afternoon  All models out to sea.

1-10  0z Euro goes out to sea, 6z GFS has nearly a direct hit, inside the benchmark though.  So far the most accurate model is the UKMEt and its a little early, but it looks like its out to sea as well.

1-9 afternoon  12z Euro bales again, GFS stays out to sea.

Euro 12z

GFS 12z

1-9  morning 12z Euro yesterday baled on the notion of a storm, but its back today. CMC is meh on it. JMA looks like the GFS, but a day behind and bigger.  DGEX still looks like yesterdays GFS with the storm going off SC and out to sea  So Euro is the only hit, so far...but the other models seem to be catching on. .

Euro

GFS

Euro snow  12" accumulated   3" from 1-12 though

Take the Euro snow map with a grain of salt though as the temps aloft and at surface are really close to 0c, so lesser snow ratios would come into play.


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1-8  So it looks like we will be ending our dry/cold period around the 15th.  Or will we. Three models, all at hr 192 (7pm on the 15th aka 0z) all with different scenarios. GFS just pushes everything south, which makes some sense as we are in that pattern now.  CMC also says suppression, but has a northern stream system come through on 15th, which phases (or nearly phases) over Nova Scotia.  Euro keeps precip to our south through the 14th, but then takes some energy from the SW, merges some moisture from the Gulf, forms a LP over SC and brings it up into our area (W CT gets 12+, south and east much less). I'm usually suspicious on how the Euro handles energy over the SW, but the error I've heard is that it hangs back energy, which in this case, its the only one ejecting the energy.  We'll see which model blinks.

Canadian CMC

Euro

US GFS

First two weeks of January

1-11 evening - NAM, Euro, GFS are all saying it warms before the precip arrives.   My issue with that is we now have broken clouds, the temps are falling and dew points are in the single digits.  Any precip which arrives should cool the column.  HRRR and RAP are showing a delay in the warming at 850mb layer and at the surface.  This may allow for some precip to start as snow, before changing to freezing rain.  NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory in effect, calling for snow, to sleet and freezing rain with .1 to .25 ice accretion.  Timing is morning rush.  They must be looking at the RAP and HRRR.  Only thing to do now is to watch the radar and the thermometer. It didn't get above freezing today, so we've been below for six days now. Surfaces are indeed frozen. 

1-10 afternoon - Euro trending warmer, still a close call. GFS goes warm, like NAM. Precip looks light though.  Will need to watch for icy conditions as ground temps usually lag models unless there is a strong wind.
1-10  GFS and Euro hold with their colder, snowier solution, but the temps are really close. NAM surprises with a jump in temps so that it is mostly rain, which is an unusual move for the normally reliable (temp wise short term) NAM and cause the NAM is usually colder and wetter than other models. With no cold air damming in place due to southerly winds, I can buy the NAM solution. 

1-9  The clipper on the 6th dusted the ground.  The clipper on the 9th came through looking like a frontal system on the radar, with a band of heavy snow for an hour or so.  Now to watch for the wave coming through on the 12th/13th.  Euro has a couple of inches on the snow map with temps borderline and .4 qpf. GFS is colder but drier with .1-.2 qpf over the area.

   00Z JAN09
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
MON 00Z 12-JAN  -2.2    -1.8    1034      53      90    0.00     566     539    
MON 06Z 12-JAN  -1.3    -3.0    1032      57      97    0.00     565     540    
MON 12Z 12-JAN  -1.6    -2.6    1029      67      97    0.02     564     541    
MON 18Z 12-JAN  -0.1     0.0    1025      74      99    0.03     562     543    
TUE 00Z 13-JAN  -0.2    -0.5    1022      96     100    0.22     560     543    
TUE 06Z 13-JAN  -0.9    -6.2    1024      83      71    0.13     555     537    

1-5  Below is printout from Euro - cold and dry.  GFS is similar.

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z JAN05

                           2 M     SFC     SFC     850     700    6 HR     500    1000

                           TMP     DEW     PRS     TMP     RHU     QPF     HGT     

                             (F)     (F)    (MB)     (F)    (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

MON 12Z 05-JAN  37.0    20.6    1014    15.7      19             543     532   

MON 18Z 05-JAN  31.1     7.6    1020     6.0       8    0.00     532     517   

TUE 00Z 06-JAN  24.4     0.4    1027     1.7      13    0.00     534     514   

TUE 06Z 06-JAN  21.2    -7.1    1028    -2.0      10    0.00     540     518   

TUE 12Z 06-JAN  20.2    -5.6    1028     0.6      46    0.00     537     516   

TUE 18Z 06-JAN  23.9     5.7    1022     0.7      94    0.02     529     512   

WED 00Z 07-JAN  23.1    11.8    1018     5.0      76    0.01     527     513   

WED 06Z 07-JAN  20.3    10.9    1014     3.5      37    0.00     525     514   

WED 12Z 07-JAN  20.1     5.5    1011     2.9      94    0.00     517     509   

WED 18Z 07-JAN  25.1    -2.7    1009     1.8      97    0.01     509     503   

THU 00Z 08-JAN  11.1    -8.6    1018   -11.5      49    0.00     509     495   

THU 06Z 08-JAN   5.0   -12.5    1024   -14.0      32    0.00     512     495   

THU 12Z 08-JAN   6.9   -11.5    1027    -9.9      55    0.00     520     500   

THU 18Z 08-JAN  20.8    -3.2    1026    -2.7      25    0.00     531     511   

FRI 00Z 09-JAN  19.3     1.0    1024    14.1      38    0.00     537     519   

FRI 06Z 09-JAN  21.0     1.4    1020    15.5      52    0.00     538     522   

FRI 12Z 09-JAN  25.0     9.1    1014    13.3     100    0.01     535     524   

FRI 18Z 09-JAN  32.9     4.9    1012     9.6      11    0.01     530     520   

SAT 00Z 10-JAN  25.1     5.9    1017     7.3       9    0.00     531     518   

SAT 06Z 10-JAN  19.4     2.4    1020     2.3      11    0.00     530     514   

SAT 12Z 10-JAN  17.3     0.1    1025     0.8      24    0.00     529     510   

SAT 18Z 10-JAN  23.7    -2.1    1028     3.3      25    0.00     533     512   

SUN 00Z 11-JAN  18.7    -1.3    1031     8.5      25    0.00     544     519   

SUN 06Z 11-JAN  17.1    -2.8    1034    14.1      13    0.00     552     526   

SUN 12Z 11-JAN  18.9    -2.7    1035    17.0      34    0.00     556     529   

SUN 18Z 11-JAN  32.8     7.6    1033    20.4      88    0.00     558     532   

MON 00Z 12-JAN  27.8    13.7    1033    24.0      96    0.00     561     535   

MON 06Z 12-JAN  28.5    11.8    1032    22.0      97    0.00     560     535   

MON 12Z 12-JAN  28.5     9.8    1032    20.0      98    0.00     560     535   

MON 18Z 12-JAN  30.9    12.9    1030    19.5      99    0.01     559     535   

TUE 00Z 13-JAN  28.0    18.7    1031    17.9      97    0.03     558     534   

TUE 06Z 13-JAN  26.7    17.8    1030    14.2      82    0.04     555     532   

TUE 12Z 13-JAN  19.1     8.8    1032    14.5      62    0.00     553     528   

TUE 18Z 13-JAN  26.6     1.8    1031    15.4      35    0.00     550     526   

WED 00Z 14-JAN  19.3     0.6    1032    15.5       9    0.00     549     525   

WED 06Z 14-JAN  15.2    -0.6    1031    18.7      34    0.00     551     527   

WED 12Z 14-JAN  13.9    -0.9    1031    21.8      25    0.00     552     528   

WED 18Z 14-JAN  28.7     2.2    1029    24.4      30    0.00     554     532   

THU 00Z 15-JAN  23.4     6.3    1028    26.7      35    0.00     556     534   

THU 06Z 15-JAN  18.9     6.3    1028    27.4      32    0.00     555     533   

THU 12Z 15-JAN  17.2     6.0    1026    27.4      37    0.00     553     533   

1-4  Nothing changed - still cold, mostly dry.  Coldest temps with a shot subzero F on Wed night/Thurs morn.   Nothing more than light snow from clippers, Tues and Friday.  Sunday perhaps too.  Nothing but light snow showing on models, with little accumulation.  Snow ratios will be  high, perhaps 20:1 or 30:1.  Pattern remains suppressed, with temps going from colder to normal to colder.  Below is the precip map, for all the precip to fall for the next ten days:  for DXR and Hudson Valley, less than .2"  Not a whole lot
 going on except the southeast, northwest and some lake effect.  Not a very impressive El Nino pattern!
goin on

1-3. Nothing changed from below.  Strength of clipper on 7th to be watched.  Still cold till the 12 th.

Highs on the Euro for the 4th!  60's in NJ, 55-60 in CT, MA. NAM is in the 40's for CT, but spots of 60-65 in NJ. RAP is also toned down in the 45-50 for CT.

 

1-2. Colder than normal air to come in (finally) after the storm passes on the 4th. Nothing brutal, but from the 5th to the 10th or so we will be below freezing most of the time. Temps around the 8th-11th may be in the single digits as lows, teens as highs.  A clipper comes through on the 7th with a dusting-2".  Only hope is post the 16th when it looks like the NAO and AO will go negative and the PNA will be positive.