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Thursday, March 9, 2017
March 10
3-10 3-6 was a nice call. No school. Snow stayed off driveway
But piled on the grass, deck and snow table
3-9 Back in the weather center.
Well this got interesting fast. The brief history on tomorrows storm, from recollection is as follows.
Originally, a clipper bringing 1-3 for the area, but possibly rain. Then a shift south over SNJ/DC area. Yesterday a shift back to hitting our area. Now the models picking up on a bunch of energy in the jet, as well as strong upward motion at 700mb. Add to that the training effect and we could see 3-6 in our area. Watch the vertical velocity as it moves over the tri-state. This usually results in heavy, 1-2"/hr snow rates, so its something to watch.
700 frontogenesis is another area to watch
850 frontogenesis is also lined up nicely.
I like the idea of 3-6, with a few hrs of 1-2"/hr rates.
NAM dries up though
0z NAM run
Some snow maps - still supports a 3-4" snow, if not a bit more.
But piled on the grass, deck and snow table
3-9 Back in the weather center.
Well this got interesting fast. The brief history on tomorrows storm, from recollection is as follows.
Originally, a clipper bringing 1-3 for the area, but possibly rain. Then a shift south over SNJ/DC area. Yesterday a shift back to hitting our area. Now the models picking up on a bunch of energy in the jet, as well as strong upward motion at 700mb. Add to that the training effect and we could see 3-6 in our area. Watch the vertical velocity as it moves over the tri-state. This usually results in heavy, 1-2"/hr snow rates, so its something to watch.
NAM dries up though
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
Early spring?
2-25 DXR official highs were 65 on Thurs, 70 on Fri and 62 today. We have a strong LLJ creating possible tornadoes with this line going through.
From the 4pmUpton AFD
For the record, Burlington VT was 72 today.
2-21 Thought I'd try to jinx this, but right now it looks as if the next 10 days are warm with a little rain. There will be some cold air from time to time and perhaps one of the storms cutting to the lakes will bring some front end snow if timed right. But overall its a fairly snowless
and even dry
next 10 days. Rain would come from cold fronts and could be heavy at times.
Highs for this week peak at near 70. Then again over the weekend in the 60s and mid week in the 60's
Beyond that, nothing below normal until the 4th -7th time period. Long range always looks interesting. Shot from the EPS control for the 7th.
From the 4pmUpton AFD
Need to check the calendar. I can`t recall the last time I`ve seen a line of storms extend from Quebec south to North Carolina in February with nearly 2000 CG in the past hour. Impressive to say the least.
For the record, Burlington VT was 72 today.
2-21 Thought I'd try to jinx this, but right now it looks as if the next 10 days are warm with a little rain. There will be some cold air from time to time and perhaps one of the storms cutting to the lakes will bring some front end snow if timed right. But overall its a fairly snowless
Highs for this week peak at near 70. Then again over the weekend in the 60s and mid week in the 60's
Saturday, February 11, 2017
2-12
2-11 A little more concerned with this one as the hrrr/rap are trending colder. Currently under WWA for 3-6, sleet and ZR. Concern is the cold doesn't leave. Bigger concern to me is the opportunity for some heavier snow coming through before it changes. Here are the vertical velocity at 700mb showing intense upward motion which leads to heavier precip. This is all during the snow phase for areas north of the Merrit.
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11/27 update - happy thanksgiving. GFS has gone from major noreaster, to huge cutter to lakes and now has a minor clipper system sinking do... -
0z above with explosive development 12 z below prior to explosive development While the October snow was certainly impressive and rare, a r... -
Without any real cold air around, this one looks to be mostly rain for CT. The models are not in alignment: GFS - furthest south with low ov...