Cold air is rumored by models

While its still 10 days off, the GFS is picking up an enormous trough for the eastern part of the country with the 0 line at 850mb (where it needs to be to snow) going all the way to Orlando on the 14th. The model has it below 0 at 850 for CT from the 8th through the remainder of the run, the 16th. All we need is some precip.

First real storm for our area

0z above with explosive development

12 z below prior to explosive development

While the October snow was certainly impressive and rare, a real life opportunity has come into the models for around the 6th or 7th. Above is the Euro interpretation from today. The GFS also has snow, but the accumulation is not there. What makes this different than Octobers storm(s) is that the thickness lines are clearly indicating snow, not just the 0 line at 850.

Now the 12z is showing the time before this explodes. I also note that the Canadian is not showing anything. The GFS has a light snow event though.

No snow but cold

1pm - its 38-39 degrees, rainy with one or two flakes mixed in, it seems, when its windy. Winds 10-15mph. Tough to see if the gfs won this one or not, or if the heavy precip just never made it here to bring down the snow. It has been getting slowly colder though but the precip is heading east. Can't tell how long the wraparound will last.

Tough day to be outside.

Rain or snow or both?

GFS has temps at 850 mb under freezing until a little past midnite, precip starting this evening and lasting through late evening sunday. NAM has danbury mostly below freezing at 850mb with the line on us late afternoon sunday, at which point most of the precip will be winding down. Candian model also has similar to the NAM with the r/s line moving as far west and north as Danbury but again late in the day on Sunday. UKMET has the line as far north as just above I84 in CT but with less precip. Euro has only 24 hr time frames, but keeps the line well se of the entire forecast area.

So, Euro and Ukmet have less precip and colder, Nam and Canadian have more precip and are cold and GFS has it warming in the 850 layer. 4 models with mostly frozen precip aloft and one liquid. GFS places low much further west. All have thicknesses above 540, indicating surface temps remain above freezing.

So there is serious chance of snow, but not likely to accumulate except in the hills, and only small amounts and it will melt fast. I hope...

Radar at 10am Saturday shows heavy precip over N NJ heading our way. Dewpoint around 26 and temp of 43

Winter weather is so much more interesting!

More snow today

Went to work this morning in snow, mixed with rain. High today of 44 on a normal of 64. Brrrrr

What was that???

I remember once taking the bus home from NYC around the end of October and seeing a snow shower come through Paterson. But it was a brief two minute flurry.

Today it snowed in Danbury from 11:30am to about 9pm. No accumulation, just patches of snow on roofs, cars, some grass, patio and outdoor furniture. But enough for a snowball. This qualifies as the earliest snow I've ever seen in my life in the tri state area. It snowed on Sept 30 this year while I was in Tahoe.

High temp was 41 at 10am, but when the precip started it dropped to 36 down to 33 where it stayed for most of the evening. Anne reported snow as far down 684 as exit 3 at noon, which is about where it started for my ride back to Danbury.

Now that the precip is tapered, the temp is back up to 35. I don't expect it to go under freezing, but heck, who thought it would snow all day.

Interesting thing was that the wx station for the NWS at DXR was reporting snow, but they seemed to ignore it in all of their statements. Finally, after having snowed for 6 hours, they put a chance of snow/rain in the forecast.

Joe calls for a warm November, so this may be it until Thanksgiving. Unless Saturday???

Boring summer... until today!

8/17 update

The late 8/16 and early 8/17 model runs went well east of Bermuda, but the 12z goes over and 18z today goes west. 0z euro went east, now the 12z goes west right between ccod and bermuda. CMC 0z is right where the 12z euro is, but the 12z grazes ccod. 0z ukmet still in bahamas, but 12z run takes it right up 70W. So the models are coming together and its close. They are having issues with a tiny trough coming off NJ/NE. GFDL has it reaching about 69W while the HRWF has it reaching 70W. Hwrf has it maxing at 120-130kts, cat four, GFDL also reaches that but drops off quickly. Hwrf remains cat 3 till end of forecast


Aside from a few more thunderstorms, the regular pattern of rain and sogginess has defined this summer. Even the recent heatwave of August 10-11 did not reach 90. I don't remember if we have gone a summer without hitting 90, but will be checking the records come mid Sept.

Always look south for spicy food and weather, in the summer at least. Ana and Bill have formed with Ana looking to be a minor ts, maybe reaching cat 1 strength as it tracks over the northern carribean. Models are split as to whether it goes north or south of DR and Cuba as it ends up in the gulf.

Bill looks to be more of a threat to Florida and north with the current model forecast having it reach winds of 110 knots, or 125 mph. Hurricane models only go out 120, but the Euro has it heading to newfoundland (and doesn't even recognize Ana) and the Canadian has it going just off of NJ and New England, perhaps phasing with a shortwave, and never making landfall until Nova Scotia. The Canadian does recognize Ana and has it hitting between Mobile and NOLA. JMA has Ana hitting NOLA and Bill beelining to New England on a rare path out of the Southeast, almost reaching the shortwave on the Euro. Above is the GFS interpretation.

10:30 update - GFS runs today start at 0z with Bill hitting S. Fl, moving into Gulf and hitting Pensacola. All other runs take it to the Bahamas before recurving. Euro 12z takes it from the SE just off the tip of Cape Cod. UKMET and Canadian still on the southern track into gulf..