Storm to the south on Friday might bring enough cold air to mix in some snow, if it goes far enough north. Then it may leave enough cold air behind to mix some in on Monday's storm.
Monday's storm looks pretty bad from a rain perspective. We had almost 3 inches last night, and almost 8 for the month of March. Compared to .5 inches of snow. But some are calling for snow, how that is with temps this warm, I don't know. It would be short lived though. The mounds of snow at the Mall are gone! Winter offically over.
Its just too warm - I'm liking that more and more. See you next year.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Monday, March 8, 2010
Is winter over?
While there still looks to be some cold air left aloft, its really winding down now. As previously posted, with no colder than normal surface temps, its difficult to believe we will have any snow.
With average highs in Danbury of the 43 to start and 54 to end, and nightime lows in the low 20's to 32 by the end, not much chance for the above normal temps we have had lately to turn into snow. As of the ninth, our lowest temp was 21, for literally an hour. The last time we were in the teens, which should not be a stretch to reach, was Feb 17th at 19 degrees.
March has had officially .5 inches of snow - and there is no more in sight. Will it be the least snowiest march in history?
With average highs in Danbury of the 43 to start and 54 to end, and nightime lows in the low 20's to 32 by the end, not much chance for the above normal temps we have had lately to turn into snow. As of the ninth, our lowest temp was 21, for literally an hour. The last time we were in the teens, which should not be a stretch to reach, was Feb 17th at 19 degrees.
March has had officially .5 inches of snow - and there is no more in sight. Will it be the least snowiest march in history?
Friday, March 5, 2010
Looking ahead in March
The problem with late Feb and Early march continues - no really cold surface temps. Yes the 850 line is below us almost the entire next two weeks, but surface temps never make it into the lower 20's and highs only in the 40's. Looking a little above normal due to the higher nite temps.
So it looks like a very moderate March, with no extremes. Thats unusual, but what hasn't been this winter.
As far as storms - nothing headed directly at us for certain, but storms will be around on the 11th (likely rain), 13th (could be big, rain to snow) and the 20th.
So it looks like a very moderate March, with no extremes. Thats unusual, but what hasn't been this winter.
As far as storms - nothing headed directly at us for certain, but storms will be around on the 11th (likely rain), 13th (could be big, rain to snow) and the 20th.
Friday, February 26, 2010
March 3- 4th storm
3-4 -results: 2 inches, which did not last. only .2 in liquid. Snow coatings both on thurs and fri following from same storm.
3-2 GFS leading the charge north
Nam is bopping around, GFS now has CT in the .5-.75 range for precip. Question is how much is rain and how much is snow. With temps in the 40's - unless it falls at night and the ground gets cold enough, the only accumulation may be on grassy surfaces and existing snow.
BTW - our 7 inches from Friday's storm melted yesterday
3-1 - all models have the storm going well offshore. Question is how much moisture gets back.
Eur0 has 93/87 (850/700mb) RH Wed morn. GFS has the same and puts out an inch of snow, but with "warm" temps around 32, might be hard to stick. NAM has no output and lower RH
So for now, no big analysis as the models continue mostly offshore.
2/27 - models bring the storm up to delmarva and then send ene. Looks like a near miss
0z runs
CMC looks best, but is just se of benchmark, but puts down a few inches - see above
EURO grazes us, but throws enough moisture back to make it interesting
GFS - mostly out to sea, but throws a lot of moisture back for a couple inches
UMKET - way out
Nogaps - way out
JMA - SE of benchmark but like the Euro and GFS, still gives some snow
DGEX - sends it due east off SC.
Interesting developments for the fourth. It was longranged on the GFS, then completely disappeared and is back again
0z runs
Euro - off OBX on the 4th (hits dc) and out to sea
UKMET - way out to sea
CMC - grazes us as it goes off obx on the 4th and out to sea
DGEX - way out to sea
GFS - off obx on the 3rd and out to sea
12z runs pushed north
Euro - obx on the 3rd, heads ne just se of bm. Grazes us
UKMET - still out to sea
CMC - pulls from obx north to bm, giving coastal areas snow - I think the pressure was 968
GFS - 984 off obx on the 3rd. Up to NJ 0z on the 4th and then hooks right, but gives the tristate a good snow fall. 980 pressure
JMA - 984 well se of bm, but would have some snow, mostly coastal.
Lots of talk about it coming north though with some gfs support
Eur0 has 93/87 (850/700mb) RH Wed morn. GFS has the same and puts out an inch of snow, but with "warm" temps around 32, might be hard to stick. NAM has no output and lower RH
So for now, no big analysis as the models continue mostly offshore.
2/27 - models bring the storm up to delmarva and then send ene. Looks like a near miss
0z runs
CMC looks best, but is just se of benchmark, but puts down a few inches - see above
EURO grazes us, but throws enough moisture back to make it interesting
GFS - mostly out to sea, but throws a lot of moisture back for a couple inches
UMKET - way out
Nogaps - way out
JMA - SE of benchmark but like the Euro and GFS, still gives some snow
DGEX - sends it due east off SC.
Interesting developments for the fourth. It was longranged on the GFS, then completely disappeared and is back again
0z runs
Euro - off OBX on the 4th (hits dc) and out to sea
UKMET - way out to sea
CMC - grazes us as it goes off obx on the 4th and out to sea
DGEX - way out to sea
GFS - off obx on the 3rd and out to sea
12z runs pushed north
Euro - obx on the 3rd, heads ne just se of bm. Grazes us
UKMET - still out to sea
CMC - pulls from obx north to bm, giving coastal areas snow - I think the pressure was 968
GFS - 984 off obx on the 3rd. Up to NJ 0z on the 4th and then hooks right, but gives the tristate a good snow fall. 980 pressure
JMA - 984 well se of bm, but would have some snow, mostly coastal.
Lots of talk about it coming north though with some gfs support
Prelim results for 25-26 retro storm
Storm tracked from off the NC coast up to south of CCod, over CT (New Haven had lowest pressure of 972 (28.72) and here was down to 975, so I think it went right over NH.
We received 2.72 inches of rain, had serious flooding as rain ran down icepak in back yard, over wall creating waterfall and streamed up against the sunroom. Then going down the wall in the basement and flowing out the garage.
We reached 32 around 2am, just in time to be dryslotted. At 4:30pm temps were 38, but wind shifted around 5-5:30 to the nw and temps dropped to 33. From there it took until 2am to reach freezing and we were dryslotted at the time.
Woke up with an inch of snow on the ground, and pavement with temps around 28. Gained 3-4 inches through the morning as we were in northern bands as low hung over NYC. Low then faded SSE and started to weaken by noon with snow squalls following.
Serious storm anywhere west or south of here. Greenwhich had about a foot as did White plains. Serious tree damage throughout the tristate. Ridgefield, 5 miles away had about 8 inches. Armonk over a foot. Ossning 18 inches. Across the Hudson, was brutal. 25-35 inches were common in Orange/Rockland. Even NJ had spots over 24"
Ski areas reported 60 inches at Belleayre 40 inches at Hunter (plus previous 22 brough them to 62 in three days), Loon - 39, Okemo - 30.
Winds - DXR had 35mph gust, but none at the house over 14. Most of the time the trees did not move. Different story in Maine, NH where gusts of 90mph occurred at buoys and 132mph on MT Washington Massive power outages to over 200,000 in ME/NH
And as of 2:30 on the 26th, its still squalling.
We received 2.72 inches of rain, had serious flooding as rain ran down icepak in back yard, over wall creating waterfall and streamed up against the sunroom. Then going down the wall in the basement and flowing out the garage.
We reached 32 around 2am, just in time to be dryslotted. At 4:30pm temps were 38, but wind shifted around 5-5:30 to the nw and temps dropped to 33. From there it took until 2am to reach freezing and we were dryslotted at the time.
Woke up with an inch of snow on the ground, and pavement with temps around 28. Gained 3-4 inches through the morning as we were in northern bands as low hung over NYC. Low then faded SSE and started to weaken by noon with snow squalls following.
Serious storm anywhere west or south of here. Greenwhich had about a foot as did White plains. Serious tree damage throughout the tristate. Ridgefield, 5 miles away had about 8 inches. Armonk over a foot. Ossning 18 inches. Across the Hudson, was brutal. 25-35 inches were common in Orange/Rockland. Even NJ had spots over 24"
Ski areas reported 60 inches at Belleayre 40 inches at Hunter (plus previous 22 brough them to 62 in three days), Loon - 39, Okemo - 30.
Winds - DXR had 35mph gust, but none at the house over 14. Most of the time the trees did not move. Different story in Maine, NH where gusts of 90mph occurred at buoys and 132mph on MT Washington Massive power outages to over 200,000 in ME/NH
And as of 2:30 on the 26th, its still squalling.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
result for 23rd
Started snowing late mon nite, not sticking, at 34 degrees. Woke up to two inches, no school. Snowed til noon before drizzling, rain, sleet and snow all mixed. Stayed 33-34 all day. Posting at 10pm and still 33.1 with rain and snow mixed, but mostly rain attm. Total snow today was 4in
Monday, February 22, 2010
beyond the 23-24 - into the 25th 26th
2-25
Its late for a prediction, but for danbury, 4 inches of wrap around on friday, early morn. NYC will get mostly rain until 9pm -6 inches for them. Depends on if and when cold air arrives. We get dry slotted once cold air arrives.
2-24
Delayed opening today. The bad news is that while the GFS was making progress going toward the euro, thd 0z runs of the euro, ukmet and cmc moved toward the gfs and the 6 z run of the gfs and nam moved further west with the r/s line. So unless there is a correction, this looks to be the last post as it will be a rain storm.
2-23
Well, the models are consistent run to run, but there are two camps. The US models take the low up the coast, close to NY and it sits somewhere to our west, keeping us rain until the cold air arrives, at which point we are dry slotted (nam). This looks the same as last nites post, so they are consistent. NAM puts out close to 10 inches of snow in spite of the call for rain. GFS also calls for some snow, but after rain. GFS has trended further west and a bit more weak with a 980 low now over or west of NY. Earlier (6z run) had it at 976. NWS in NY and Bos have commented that the GFS is feeding back convection and making the storm too strong, thus pulling it north and west. NAM is usually a bit north and west for the same reason. Accuweather is leaning more towards gfs, and JB is defending it.
The CMC, UKMET and EURO all have the storm further out, over the gulf stream, and bring it in over mass (as described last nite as well, so there is no change there). This keeps w ct and further west and south in the cold portion and will amount to a lot of snow. These models have it a bit weaker (980) than the nam and gfs. 12z Euro track is closer to gfs, although by the time its over nyc at 980, its actually north of nyc, the thickness line is way out to sea. CMC and UKMEt are both similar in strength but bring it around NYC through RI and Mass, keeping the thickness line out east of us.
0z nam
precip
18z gfs
12z gfs
2-22 12/18z
What was the third system, now is the main storm on most models.
While the ukmet tries to bury us on wed, it shows a stacked, 988 off Ccod on Friday morn, deepening further on Sat morning, still just a bit too far east for a major storm for us
Euro goes the same off ccod at 980 but brings it back into New England, resulting in snow fri into sat. Euro also keeps us cold the entire week.
WRF - all over the place. 12z run brings storm into E CT with us getting some snow and rain. 18z goes further east, around boston and into NH. 0z run for 2/23 goes bonkers with 970 low over NYC. Its rain at 72 hrs, but snow the other hours. See above as it moves NW into NNJ and spins for 18 hrs.
GFS - 12z moves a 984 over boston and to springfield(Fri) , to danbury (sat) and alb on Sunday where it weakens. This would clobber CT. 18z moves low from Providence to Springfield, still clobbering CT. see precip and other shots.
Its late for a prediction, but for danbury, 4 inches of wrap around on friday, early morn. NYC will get mostly rain until 9pm -6 inches for them. Depends on if and when cold air arrives. We get dry slotted once cold air arrives.
2-24
Delayed opening today. The bad news is that while the GFS was making progress going toward the euro, thd 0z runs of the euro, ukmet and cmc moved toward the gfs and the 6 z run of the gfs and nam moved further west with the r/s line. So unless there is a correction, this looks to be the last post as it will be a rain storm.
2-23
Well, the models are consistent run to run, but there are two camps. The US models take the low up the coast, close to NY and it sits somewhere to our west, keeping us rain until the cold air arrives, at which point we are dry slotted (nam). This looks the same as last nites post, so they are consistent. NAM puts out close to 10 inches of snow in spite of the call for rain. GFS also calls for some snow, but after rain. GFS has trended further west and a bit more weak with a 980 low now over or west of NY. Earlier (6z run) had it at 976. NWS in NY and Bos have commented that the GFS is feeding back convection and making the storm too strong, thus pulling it north and west. NAM is usually a bit north and west for the same reason. Accuweather is leaning more towards gfs, and JB is defending it.
The CMC, UKMET and EURO all have the storm further out, over the gulf stream, and bring it in over mass (as described last nite as well, so there is no change there). This keeps w ct and further west and south in the cold portion and will amount to a lot of snow. These models have it a bit weaker (980) than the nam and gfs. 12z Euro track is closer to gfs, although by the time its over nyc at 980, its actually north of nyc, the thickness line is way out to sea. CMC and UKMEt are both similar in strength but bring it around NYC through RI and Mass, keeping the thickness line out east of us.
0z nam
precip
18z gfs
12z gfs2-22 12/18z
What was the third system, now is the main storm on most models.
While the ukmet tries to bury us on wed, it shows a stacked, 988 off Ccod on Friday morn, deepening further on Sat morning, still just a bit too far east for a major storm for us
Euro goes the same off ccod at 980 but brings it back into New England, resulting in snow fri into sat. Euro also keeps us cold the entire week.
WRF - all over the place. 12z run brings storm into E CT with us getting some snow and rain. 18z goes further east, around boston and into NH. 0z run for 2/23 goes bonkers with 970 low over NYC. Its rain at 72 hrs, but snow the other hours. See above as it moves NW into NNJ and spins for 18 hrs.
GFS - 12z moves a 984 over boston and to springfield(Fri) , to danbury (sat) and alb on Sunday where it weakens. This would clobber CT. 18z moves low from Providence to Springfield, still clobbering CT. see precip and other shots.
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