Irma part two... and a bit of Jose

9-10 Landfall

ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
910 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT CUDJOE KEY IN LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the
lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT.  A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h)
was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.

SUMMARY OF 910 AM EDT...1310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

$$

9-9Irma settled in along the coast of Cuba and lost a lot of juice.  Latest recon only showing 80kt winds.  But she does appear to be firing back up, so we'll have to see .  Pressure is already down two since the 2pm update.

Models have continued to the west

 with the Euro now scraping along the west coast of FL.  Some maps of the wind effect. 

Gusts near Sarasota

Gusts near landfall

Total gusts

Winds near landfall

9-8  Nam back to normal, not sure what that was about.  Irma "struggles" now with a 155mph ranking a few mph away from Cat 5.  Its heading west to Cuba as you can see in the satellite.  Its waxed and waned on the satelite, victim of Cuba, dry air and ERC.

New tracks targeting W. FL now.  Keep in mind hurricane force winds are likely on both coasts unless this stays offshore of either.

Dynamical models still showing signficant strenghening while intesnity models show weakening.  Irma has lost some oomph today now with winds of 155mph, down from its 185mph peak.  Pressures have remained fairly steady throughout the day.


9-7 post 0z nam run.  NAM showing it going up to NC and interacting with a cut off low.  really weird.  Could hit Delmarva, NJ or LI on this run.

Collection of photos from the Atlantic Photos from St Martin - the Atlantic

A quick note on Jose - its up to 150mph, likely going to cat 5.  Official forecast is to weaken, which is what they kept doing with Irma.No threat to US as of yet.

The leewards are at risk with this one.  The PM there said they would literally remove every person from Barbuda if this looked like it would go there.  Right now, it looks like a close call, but a miss.  As we've seen with Irma, that can easily change.

And Katia is spinning in Campeche at 105mph, and expected to strengthen before landfall.  We could have 3 major hurricanes in the basis at the same time.


9-7  Busy day at work so some catch up...

Irma still a 175mph hurricane, 8pm report at 919mb.  Recon since not finding much wind and pressures are up, but very likely an eyewall replacement happening as seen on the mimic. The

Models have come to an agreement, and its not good.  Keys and the S or SE tip of Fl will get landfall first.  Currently forecast as a cat 5.  Only "good news" is for SC/GA which should see a weakened Irma with these paths.

source Trop Atlantic 

Some landfall winds

And max winds to the hour

Hoping tomorrow brings a weaker Irma, or the models shift east.  Better to have a cat 4 storm hit GA/SC than cat 5 hit Miami.  No offense to GA/SC

Meanwhile Josie and Katia are out there.  Katia should get to 90mph and hit Mexico.  Jose is currently at 120mph and may interact with the northern Leewards, where Irma just hit.