Jan 16 - 18

1-17  Parts of NW CT with 8"  rest of the area much less. Torrington reporting 4".  Good storm to stay off FB.  The south got hit harder though.   Water vapor shows second area just missing us.

This was the setup at 4am

850 temps

925 temps

Looks good, borderline for 925 temps, but when I went to bed it was 29 out with a 26 dew point.  Then this happened.

It was pouring out. Plows were scraping the bare asphalt too.  School was called out.  It changed to snow around 6am.  Covered the roads.  Wet, sloppy snow.  1"so far. its 9am. 

The evolution at 500mb has been really poorly modeled. Here is the last 6 runs of the NAM as of 12z 1-17. 

This is resulting in slowing that lp off NC and strengthening it.

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1-16 - Had light snow and flurries yesterday from some ocean affect.  Also some flurries this morning
This is how the radar has looked for past 8 hours or so.  With some breaking off and heading over our area.

So whats happening...."clippper" system to our west was coming through when it started crawling.  It is supposed fall apart and regenerate a new low off the coast. This has caused fits with where the precip should be, particularly on the NAM.  Instead of one system to figure, it has to sense where the first storm ends, and second begins.  The precip over PA and CNY is clipper/stalled front related.  The precip to our east is new storm related.  Trend has been for the storm to pull west, but thats not reflected easily in the NAM trend below.

The other challenge has been temps.  Not aloft, 850 temps are solid for snow.  But with the LP coming further west, it brings in warmer air.  But the NAM again is all over the place.

Now temps of 32-33 can still support snow if its falling hard enough.  And in the morning hours, it should be.  Even the 925 mb temps (2500ft) are jumping around, but if they settle below 0c then I would expect snow over rain.  And in heavier bursts, would cool the entire column to freezing.

Last variable would be how warm the surface is at the beginning.  A lot of upper 30s and 40s around NYC and the island right now. Those will be hard to overcome.  But inland temps are low to mid 30s.

NWS has a pretty good map as does WFSB.  I could see NYC 2-4 with island 0-1.  NE NJ 2-4 but 4-5 NW.  CT coast 2-4 with I84 corridor 3-6.

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1-12  Pouring rain today. 58 throughout most of CT as I traveled.  Dense fog.  Snowpack almost gone at home.

Just a look at some Euro snow maps... these are 24 hr snowfalls

0z Euro

12z Euro

Euro dissolves the clipper in the 12z run and reforms a storm off the coast.  With the ULL coming down earlier and to the west, its neutral to negative and cut off.  So the new storm formed heads north, bombing it to 974 coming in over RI, which causes rain and mixing problems for areas east of Rt 8. Hence the cut off on the maps.

NAVGEM takes initial energy from the clipper with some light snow for us, then redevelops just to our east brushing us with more light snow. Navgem rule states that all other modeling should be to its west, so this is a good signal.

 NAVGEM also drops the ULL down, but doesn't cut it off anymore, keeping a positive tilt.  This is a bad sign for a storm.

UKMET has the ULL even farther west.  It keeps the clipper in tact as it goes through the area, then redevelops another storm to our south which sweeps east. 

12z ukmet 6hr precip

 JMA brings through the clipper, supper weak, but some light snow.  Then forms a storm well out to sea as the trough is positive. By the time its neutral/negative the storm is long gone.

Icon (German) model shows the clipper coming through with light accumulation, then another storm forming. 

Icon Clipper

Icon second storm

The GFS also takes the clipper through with light snow, putting it to our north.  Usually we don't get snow when they are to our north.  Then another storm develops, completely separate, off NC and goes ENE out to sea.

So the upper pattern needs to be figured out....

Gonna need more time for this one. 

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1-11  After a warm up today and Friday, cold front comes through with some possible sleet at the end of it.  Been following on Accu Forums but decided against a blog on it due to the regional nature and we are not getting much if any snow out of it.

However, a clipper and upper air disturbance will be following shortly there after.  A lot of model support this morning for this, but there is still time for this to either just not happen or go out to sea.  I don't think this can go very far west of us since its spawned offshore.

Euro right now depicts it the strongest.  Strong upper low drops down with fresh cold air, spawning a storm off the coast (remnants of a clipper).  Pay attention to the blue thickness line, indicating a mix here and rain to the east, which ultimately keeps the snow amounts down east of here.

 Seems like a rare scenario - it is.  Happens a couple times per winter, sometimes not at all. Is there other support for this? UKMET is least committal, but upper level supports.  NAVGEM rule applies as it is the furthest east. 

Icon (German)

Ukmet

Ukmet precip

GFS snow

Navgem

Snow could fall as early as late on the 16th.  If you believe the Euro, its a 24 hr snowfall.

A lot of time for changes - Upper low could be weaker, could drop further west or east.