This will wake you up

GFS has major hurricane (Isaac?) off Long Island on the first of Sept! Shades of last year!

8-20

Euro and GFS have a ridge in the Atlantic that is too strong for a system to hit directly from the Atlantic. Instead, they take Isaac into the Caribbean and around the ridge up into Florida or the Eastern Gulf. From there its possible to get up the seaboard. Keeping an eye out still. It hasn't developed yet and the stronger it gets the more likely it will head more north. Staying weak will push it further west.

8-21 update morning

The euro keeps it weak and passes over Jamaica befo it tightens up and hits the central gulf coast. GFS is just north of Jamaica, passes over Cuba, hits near the Keys, then again near S Carolina. These are the furthest south and west tracks. Gfs ensembles all take it up the east coast. Euro ensembles all through the Carribean. The hurricane models mostly take it near to the north or over Hispaniola, then up the East Coast. Cmc and ukmet are also tonthe right of the gfs. Right now the storm is starting to gain a Central dense overcast in the center, but remains a fast mover and subject to moderate shear. Once it slows down more, it should develop more. The earlier it does that, the further north it goes.

8/27

Isaac still hasn't wrapped itself up, despite its core staying away from land. Its weakness resulting in a further west movement. Also, the trough coming through the US, which seems so strong, has stalled in the southern half of the country. So, the Euro, per above, was correct so far in the end game. Todays run of the Euro is scary for NOLA. The storm intensifies as it nears, and stalls just to the east of Lake Pontchartrain, keeping northerly winds of at least 40mph driving water toward the city for about 48 hrs. The rains first arrive in NO at 12z Tuesday the 28th and continue until 6z on Friday. This would be extreme. Wind wise, just to the east of NO is hit rather hard with 36 hrs or longer of hurricane strength winds. Problem with the Euro model is that the wind chart maxes as 75kts and the rain chart maxes at 5inches. Both of these will be exceeded.
CMC follows the Euro, but not as strong
UKMET follows CMC- like Euro but weaker
NAM follows CMC, but doesnt go stronger than 996 and winds don't go above 45kts at the surface. Flight level winds never above 55kts.


GFS runs so far today track it southwest of NO, just over the delta. IT too slows the storm down as it reaches the coast. This puts NO in the windier section and storm surge from the gulf, which I trust more than a surge from LP (as in Katrina). GFS doesn't strengthen Isaac to a hurricane though.


HWRF takes it to 100kts, just to west of NOLA
GFDL takes it into E Texas, with 66kt being the top wind

New month, new storms

Per last post, Ernesto broke the shear and dry air, but struggles even today. But it looks the best it has all day right now. It should continue fairly week for another day or two. Models bring it to life once past Jamaica. I'm not thinking it hits the US as of now, but we'll see how the ridge holds out.

Then two more areas pop up - one near the Cape Verde islands, which is huge and strong. Long range models grab it then destroy it. One model taking it to the NE of the islands and recurving. Others devolve it into a wave. Right now there is an area of 20+kt sheer on its north side, displacing the divergence aloft. If it can shake that, there is a lot of energy to work with, moreso as it heads toward warmer water.

An area off Florida is where remnants of a tropical wave from last week and an old front have converged. Need to watch this interesting feature. Tstorms are plenty, its just whether they can spin up. The NAM does spin it into a low eventually and brings it into N Florida. Euro keeps it a wave. Its near an area of 20-30kt shear, but there a slot of no shear developing.

Where are the tropical systems

Not much to post on in July. Dry saharan air is keeping the waves off Africa from developing. There is also a good amount of sheer as well. Now in the season is when to look for longer running storms, and we finally have one on the GFS, Euro and CMC. The CMC develops fully and brings it NW just short of the islands. The GFS develops a weaker storm, bringing due west and the Euro keeps it a wave moving west into the Caribbean. NHC is on this with a 20% chance of development. Sheer in the area is currently light to moderate and the dust is further north, so there is a pretty good chance of development.

Colder than normal!

For the first time since last August, the monthly average temp was noticably below normal. June ended at -3.1 at DXR. While April was a -.6, it did not in my mind sufficiently break the trend of warmer temps. We also received near normal rainfall amounts for June, which is also indicating a potential for a more back and forth normal type of pattern as opposed to the cold pattern in 2010-11 which flipped warm in Sept 11.

Other item of note - yesterday was the hottest I can remember at the shore. Even surrounded by water, the temps made it into the mid 90's, until at least 7pm. A sea breeze briefly developed along the beach in the late morning, but never made it past the dunes. Thankfully it was a dry (er) heat. The ocean temps had to be around 70-72 as we could just walk in without flinching and the Accuweather pro tropical site has the water temp anomoly off the shore at +5c. Car was registering 112-116F while idiling on the pavement.

Mesoscale storm and interesting feature near TX

Last night a mesoscale convective system rolled through the eastern part of the country affecting IN through DC and NJ. In NJ, three people died, two children camping when a tree fell on them, and a fisherman in a boat near Absecon. 190,000 left without power in S NJ with 2million between NJ and WV. Storm lasted maybe 2 hours or slightly more with the hardest part hitting SNJ just after midnight. Winds up to 89mph were recorded. Radar estimates 4-5 inches of rain.

Separately, an interesting feature off tx this morning. Lets see if NHC is on it?

Amazing shot of heat

Yesterday (6/19) at this time (9:30) it was 63 degrees, and it only reached a high of 74.
Today, the wall thermometer is showing 82 at the same time of day (shed is showing 78)
You know it will be hot when its 80 at 9:30!

Piling into the Gulf, W Carrib

6/21 Hurricane Chris -as noted there was a storm formed off the east coast, which looked like a baroclinic storm which went tropical. Its appearance is clearly tropical, but its odd since it formed north of 40N and in water temps barely over 70. Most of its life the temps are 20 to 24c (68-75F) per the NHC SST. Must have been more too it than just tropical

Shear is relaxing a bit, but only in the Yucatan Channel, which is where the next storm is trying to form. So a little late from the call of the 19th, but same idea.

6/15
Euro still has minor hints at somthing forming around Mexico, but more interestingly takes the baroclinic storm and converts to one with more tropical features of the East coast.

0z and 6z gfs less bullish on the EC storm, but has a Trop storm forming in Bay of campeche and moving to the Rio Grande.


6/12
12z gfs has lp escaping from central carrib out east, with minor development. Euro keeps trying to form but either sends west into Mex or shreds it coming north. 0z gfs has a bunch forming, first into B of Campeche, really short on development on the 16th. Competing is one in the central carrib, which like 12 z is lifted ne. Another off the Yucatan on the 21, but looks like it gets sheared ne into US.

afternoon: Accuweather on top of this as well now. Although the storm this weekend off the east coast looks more baroclinic than tropical.

6/9
Watch the 15-19th as the pattern in the carrib shifts to piling up moisture into the Gulf. A front coming along could spin up a storm, or one can form just with the amount of energy pouring in.