Sunday, December 8, 2019

Dec 11 - Front with wave

12-11 Results - we got 3.5" here and 1-4" was the general range .




12-8  While its going to be approaching 60 the next few days, once the cold front comes through, there is a chance of snow.  Its currently being labeled an anafront, which is when precip falls mainly after frontal passage.  This is caused by cold air at the ground to 5000 foot level advancing faster than the departing warm air.  It pushes the warm air up, causing it to cool and precipitate. These are rare, and even more rarely generate meaningful snow.  I'm looking at it as a frontal passage with a wave riding up the front, which is more common but almost as rare generates meaningful snow.

Today's model runs do have snow the area - general 1-3 inches can be expected.  NWS has 1-3 in the forecast for Danbury.
 6zEuro

6z GFS

12z NAM

9z Short range ensembles

7am NWS forecast map

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