Tuesday, November 6, 2018

When will it snow!

11/6


Yes the season is upon us.  Christmas lights are out already and waiting for the snow to help bring us into winter.  First flakes last year were Nov 10.

The models have been showing sporadic chances for snow on some runs, but not until today do I feel it necessary to start talking snow.

0z GFS with its typical bias of pushing the storm and trough too fast
0z Euro with a more realistic solution, but the storm itself brings only a mix to deep interior NE
There's room for that to come back, but if it did it would rain.  
The 6z GFS showing it can be realistic. 
Now before we start stocking up,  I'm only expecting at most a wet snow with the low and even that is not likely, but I am expecting flurries and snow showers behind it, which should give us first flakes. Pattern after this quiets through Thanksgiving.  

Storm 3 - could be the one! (spoiler, it was)

 2/9  Set up is an upper low over TX that heads northeast into TN valley and then transfers off the coast. At the upper levels, there's ...