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Saturday, March 24, 2012

Wrap up and April fools


Snow stays in northern CT, with Catskills and Berkshires getting 2-4. Still keeping an eye on it.


All 0z/6z models have snow in the air. Timing from Fri into Sat (3/31) or Sat into Sun (4/1). NAM puts down 4 inches, CMC is also aggressive. Euro puts snow down too, but not more than an inch. GFS puts it in the air, but no accum in the immediate area.

Longer term - GFS is interesting as it keeps the 0@850 line in our area and brings a few weak storms across while we are under 0@850.


Euro op and ens go to a surprise snow April 1-2. GFS not on it now. GFS does make it cold after April 6 though. Interesting.

As I write this, March is over 10 degrees above normal for DXR. We had no measurable snow this month. And its been dry, with only .49 of precip (15% of normal).

Feb came in at 4 above normal with 1.6" of precip (half normal) and 6" of snow.
Jan was 4.8 above normal with 2.6" precip (70% of normal) and 6" of snow.
Dec was 4.8 above normal with 5.24" of precip (125% of normal) and no snow.

The average departure from normal for Met Winter (12/1 - 3/1) was 4 above with 12" of snow.
The average departure from normal for Std Winter was 6 above with 12" of snow.
Total snow so including Oct storm is 30"

Forecast from October was 35" of snow (not far off), but for lots of ice and rain. We had no ice storms. Temp was predicted at 1.6 above, which was high compared to the prof mets. The actual was 4 above. So only close for snow due to the freak storm. I'd give myself a C for calling for a warmer than normal, with less snow than normal winter, but missing the departures.

Modified forecast later in Dec brought up the lack of snow in Dec translating into lack of snow in JAN,FEB and MAR. This was a good call.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Reverse psychology

Maybe if I start posting about the upcoming spring weather, it will decide to snow.

After a brief spell of normal to slightly below after the cold front passes on Sat nite, temps rebound into the 50s per accuweather and gfs. Euro ens control even has 70's appearing by the 13th. Even more remarkable is the GFS 18z run had it in the 70's at 6z (2am) on the 16th!

Can't wait - if it isn't going to snow, might as well be warm.