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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Sandy

Sun night - wasn't able to post much, out prepping, soccer, etc.  No real changes from below, other than the winds below are slightly lower.  Flooding has already occurred  in NJ and DE.  Power is already out in long island.  Winds are fairly calm here after a blustery start at Kenosia park.

Low still coming in around Ocean Cty.  Surge should be really really really bad.  Upton is saying surge in NY will be recordbreaking.  Landfall 5-9pm on Monday.


Sat night
Euro is furthest south, well that and NHC having landfall say Seaside Heights.  Other models still targeting NYC/Sandy Hook.  Below is wind map from Euro85-90 gusts over LI, 75mph gusts inland.
Surge can go up to 9 feet, waves 12-18.  This should be treated as a cat one hurricane for most of the area, cat two along the coast due to possible record surges. 



Sat morning - Buoy 41010 had 30ft waves, gusts of hurricane force, winds of 60-65mph. Pressure 981, now rising.
Models narrowed from LI to Cape May (GFDL is delmarva).  Most hits are now Monday late afternoon to early tues morning, centered on Monday evening.

Euro hits Cape May, sub 950.  Winds similar to fridays runs.  Much less cold air, less snow in WV as well.  Ensembles mean  still north around Point Pleasant. Control is Seaside.
0z GFS hits NYC from the SW monday evening, moves west until stalling in western pa.Precip 3-4 inches generally, with 6-10 along the coast in DE/MD. Heavy snow in WV, with 3-4 inches in most of PA and 1-2 in western NJ.
6z - backs off snow in NJ, 1-2 in PA, less in WV too.  Sub 950 landfall around Monmouth cty. Sustained Winds still of hurricane strength hit LI only.  Rest of NE is +30kts at least, with higher gusts..  Ensembles are too vague and literally circle is around NJ. 
A note on winds - many models showing 95kt winds at 850 (110mph).  Standard ratio is .8 for surface winds, so the models are half of what normally happens.  This could be concerning.
CMC hits NYC, sub 950
UKMET hits LI and NJ Coast, sub 950
0z Nam hits sandyhook, sub 960
6z hits Sandy Hook, sub 960, from the SW though
Nogaps hits NYC from the SW

I like the models with the SW approach - its odd to see a storm take a 90 degree turn so fast, without stalling.  We're looking at landfall late monday, most likely along the NJ coast, sub 955.


Fri afternoon
GFS - 948 over ACK on 12ztues, 946 low at dxr at 18z.  Just wanders around, tries to go up hudson valley thursday, finally exits ME on friday. Precip up to 3 inches for most of CT, NYC and NNJ. Winds over 65kts at its peak at 12z tues along the north shore of MA and the Cape.  40kt+ from Canada to NC.  Inland winds not too bad - sustained at DXR of 40kts but only for under 12 hrs.  Aside from the high winds along the coast in MA/NH/ME, this is the safest solution so far.
UKMET - NJ hit tues morn - due west.  Looks like 950mb
NAM - East LI at hr 84, looks like a New Haven hit?
Euro -going in over ACU with 940 low at 12z on Tues.  Winds start 6z Sunday on LI, 12z for the coast from the Cape to OBX.  +70kt winds hit the cape 0z Tuesday, with inland winds picking up.6z Tuesday, winds are over 75kts from NH to MD, with NJ coast mercifully only at TS Strength. by 12z Tuesday, inland winds (not gusts) over 45kts or 55mph. NYC, NNJ, Monmouth cty, Nassau all over 75kts.  18z winds ease to 40kts over most of the NE, with 65kts on NC/VA coast.  Not until 6z Sat do the winds along the coast go below 45kts


Fri Morning

Euro 0z
940-945 landfall near MD/DE border at 18z Monday. Winds>65kts from ME to NC (whole NE screen) on coast with trop storm winds+higher gusts inland.  In DXR/NYC area gusts>25kts start Sunday afternoon, peak at 60kts Monday afternoon and subside below 25kts late Tuesday night. Sustained +30kt winds start Sunday evening, peak  monday afternoon, with NYC getting 75kt winds and DXR only 50kts. They subside by Tuesday afternoon.  Total precip ranges from 3 inches for Cape May to 2" for most of NJ and CT to 1.25 for LI.

GFS 0z
948 landfall on LI at about 20z Tuesday (4pm?).  Lt rain starts late Sunday afternoon,  storm stalls in NYC area, moves to Boston around 21z Wednesday at 970mb, heads north of VT by Fri morn when the last of the rain hits.  Truly crazy run.  Even with all that rain, only 2.5 inches for CT with 3-5 in NJ.  Sustained winds of +30 kts start along the NJ shore Mon 6z and back off a bit.  East LI, ACK and CC starts at 18z Monday. By 0z Tuesday, the coast from Cape Ann to OBX is sustaining trop force winds.  12z Tuesday, 25kt winds are in DXR/NYC but CC/ACK getting hit with 60kts. By 18z, DXR and NYC are suffering sustained winds >30kts with LI and CC at 50+.Winds ease inland by 6z Wed, coastal areas still >40kts.  Thurs 6z winds along coast subside.

Euro Ens - place storm in NJ at 6z Tues.
GFS 0z ens - 970 low over NYC at 18z Tues.  Then stalls for a day and moves to VT by 18z Wed.
CMC - loops into ME Wed 6z with 951mb
DGEX hits NYC at 958 mb early Monday evening .  Then stalls in PA.  2-3 inches of rain.  Winds 65kts on Cape cod, inland well over 40kts.  But only lasts 12 hrs then subsides.
0z NAM puts a pancake low of 976 s of RI at hr 84.  Winds only 50kts top
6z nam has normal low of 960 of S of LI at hr 84 (mon 18z). Winds still not over 55kts anywhere.
6z GFS run has it hitting NYC dead on with 952 low 18z tues.  Then moving to PHL6z wed. Then back to NYC 18z wed. Over Keene NH on 18z Thurs, ME on Fri.
Nogaps into NJ with 962 low early monday afternoon.  Winds dont exceed 30kts except at coast and interior SNJ.
UKMET comes in somewhere between 952 and 970 around NYC tues afternoon.





Thurs Evening

All models, including HWRF show a threat to the EC.  Range is being narrowed with GFS hitting in NYC area, Euro on Delmarva.

18z GFS winds arrive 0z Tues and max out at 12z Tues for DXR area, with 70mph winds hitting LI.  Eye goes in near Asbury Park - remarkably, winds not that bad.
12z Euro winds start 18z Sunday, in coastal areas, max out at hurricane force 0z Tues, from ME to VA.  Go back below trop force by 18z tuesday.  So two days of +30kt winds for most of the Northeast, even inland.  The center goes in near DE/MD border, winds at Cape May are off scale at +75kts (85-90mph).  Euro is furthest south, for now.  Its ensembles have storm hitting closer to Toms River on Tuesday 12z.
JMA brings straight on hit to NJ.
Canadian hits NYC with 942 low.  850 winds at 90kts
UKMET hits LI
GFDL takes 70kts into Chesapeake at 930 mb on 18z monday.  Its winds not as widespread, but hard to tell. Look like only trop force winds up to s jersey.
HWRF changed late to an ots solution, again.
Nam, extrapolated looks like a NYC hit, as is DGEX, on Monday Morning. Winds of 60kts. 965 low. DGEX no longer has snow down into SC coast!

So the questions tonite - does it arrive Sunday night or Monday night?  Does it stall or keep moving?  Do the models keep pushing this further southwest and turn it into a NC/SC hit?  Does Sandy maintain strength at 105kts?  Lots of time for things to change, but it would be odd if this didn't hit the EC somewhere at his point.

BTW - no generators to be found.

I haven't mentioned precip yet - most models are capping it at 5", so who knows.  Typically the higher winds are on the E side of the low and the higher precip on the W side. 







Wed Evening
A day of back and forth.  Nogaps and Euro still steady with landfall between De and ME.  GFS 12z had landfall around Boston.  GFDL moved back to an offshore solution to hr 126, but could be retrograding afterward.  UKMET looks like it is similar to 12z gfs, out at sea and retrograding back, but only goes to 144.  CMC is back on board as well with a Boston hit.  JMA maintains an EC hit as well. The 18z GFS went back well east, but retrograded into Newfoundland.  So all but the HWrf are looking like a hit on land, just a manner of how, where and when.  I'm not even sure I'd rule out OBX yet.  DGEX is on board with hit on NYC at 964mb.  This actually seems reasonable!  But then again it has snow to the coast in North Carolina...

Wed Morn
Switching to new post as the charts below are picking up on a hurricane landfall.
First is the spread of hurricane models, not too many out to sea solutions left.  I don't buy the gdl southern solution just yet, particularly since the euro is taking this into NJ.  I wouldn't rule out a hit in the OBX either, but think ACY to BOS is the area looking most favorable, with BOS to Canada possilbly next if the storm isn't captured quickly enough by the trough (gfs solution).  GFS also has a non tropical storm forming over the NE Tues-Thurs, which looks formidable, and may even result in snow for the area.
 Second, pressure of 932 over DE, per latest gfdl run
 Last, 100kt winds near chesapeake bay at hr 114, they lower to 90 kts (105mph) upon landfall.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Models go crazy - October surprise, again.

10/23 morning update. Some mets catching on last night.
Gfs ens starting to shift to euro solution. Euro, cmc, no gaps, jam still make us landfall.  Jam is south of no, while the others center around NYC to southern new England.  Gfs is further west, showing the storm meandering between Bermuda and the US. Pressure on this mornings runs are still close to 930 on the euro and cmc.  Winds and precip did not match the intensity of the 12z euro yesterday as a 930 low would have winds over 65.

These have to be overblown on the pressure. I can see how baroclinic factors affect Sandy and make it explode, but let's see how strong she is and how close to Florida she gets before making prep.


10/22
Just randomly checked the models this morning to find that the Euro had a huge storm affecting the midatlantic and southern new england.  Tropical Storm comes out of Cuba, stalls in bahamas for a day, then gets trapped by an upper low over the CONUS.  As the baroclinic forces hit the storm it drops to 952 low off of AC and moves into PA.  Track is supported by the JMA, CMC and partially by the UK models, although timing varies.  EURO Ensembles are conflicting, with some of the storm being split out to sea and some remaining to affect the US.  Its wind field and 500 heights are in line with the operational model, but the slp map is way different.  GFS has the trop storm going way out to sea, but the upper low spawning another coastal which affects New England.  Euro maps show hurricane strength winds hitting from NJ to CT.   This would be devastating to NJ in particular.  On top of that, the 850 temps are below 0 - but the leftover tropical airmass at the surface should prevent any snow until western pa.

Euro surface

Euro winds

Euro 850 temps

CMC

JMA surface

GFS 6z map