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Sunday, March 30, 2014

More crazy snow maps

4-8 Today's 0z Euro snow map for 4-16.  emoticon roll eyes...  Something went wrong as 850's are above 0, thickness above 540, vertical velocities are barely supportive.  925's are below 0, so wondering if its picking up a sleet storm, but converting it to snow.... Temps are below freezing though.



3-30 Todays dgex 192 snowfall and conditional




Todays euro control at hr 360, total snowfall


Thursday, March 20, 2014

Reluctantly opening thread for 3-26

3-29 Finally get to update with the results.  SNJ/Delmarva and the Cape had about 6 inches. Blizzard conditions were reached on the Cape and the Islands.  A 103kt gust was recorded on a buoy off Maine. Nantucket saw gusts in the 80's, Cape in the 70's and most of the rest of the SNE area in the 50's.  CT saw mostly 40's including DXR. We had flurries. 

3-24  Despite runs showing inverted troughs, double barrel lows, westward shifts, the storm barely gives us any snow here in W CT.  E LI, E CT, E MA, and SNJ, Delmarva are still in this for a little bit, though  the cape still looks like it will be getting 8-14 inches.  As a final note, the high today was 31.8, normal high is 52.  We are -7.9 for the month with 19% of normal precip


3-23   Everything is east, Euro is only model still with any snow for the area and its 2-4 inches.  Eastern sections, Groton east, have over 6".  

3-22 evening. Not too much to update. 18z gfs is pretty far ots. 12zcmc and unmet have a solid snowstorm. 12z ecmwf is east of bm by 60-100 miles but spreads precip in.  I was expecting some sort of shift, either west or east by 150-200 miles as the systems involved reached north America.  There is still time for this to either shift completely ots or move toward the coast.  Storms coming up the coast usually trend west until 60 hrs or so, but this year is anything but usual.

3-22 morning.  Euro and GFS Operationals take the storm to 40/68, about 100 miles east of the benchmark, with CMC about 40/69, resulting in the coast and LI being hit with 4-8 inches, inland 2-4, cape cod about a foot. CMC and Euro stall storm for a 3-6 hours nearest the BM, before kicking east then NE.  UKMET is a little west at hr 96 but we only get 12hr frames, so hard to tell how close to BM. Ensembles are leaning west though, so we still need to keep an eye on this one.

CMC Ens - note spread

Euro ens, note spread

Euro snow map

gfs 0z ens - getting close

GFS 6z ens - getting close

GFS 0z precip

6z gfs precip, a bit further east


3-21 morning - only have html to work with. CMC has crazy two lows at 980, the westward one pounding us. That map is unlike any scenario I've seen in 10 years, so toss it. 0z Euro has similar multiple 980 lows, but further out to sea. they do consolidate into a 968 low at 66/42 though. Don't like that solution either. 0z gfs takes 972 low over 39/70 (normally this is a good position for snow early/late season), but limits precip as its tightly wound. Cape is rocked on that one. 6z run has a 984 low over 38/70, but 3 hrs later goes to 976. Both GFS brush the area and hit the outer cape pretty good. 0z ukmet bombs just east of the BM. DGEX still nada (be strange if that models wins).

3-20  We've been seeing some model runs on and off with a major storm for the 25-26th time frame.  I've been posting some crazy snow maps as a form of entertainment, having been burned on every storm since 2-18.  But its getting serious enough now to focus on the threat.  The Euro ens mean has a bm storm, as does the control.  NAVGEM has been on it for days, CMC has been on it most of the time.  GFS is pushing out to sea - this is a normal bias, but this year has not had any normality to it. JMA has the southern and northern separate still, not as potent.  DGEX too, southern goes out to sea, northern is weak.

Below is Euro ens mean, with spread partly due to differences in strength (some members are 940mb) but also position. Its a lot of spread.
The surface map from the operational - 968 low.

Precip map however, cuts off sharply, as usual this year. Most of CT is in the .25 to .5 precip range.  NJ is .5 to 1.5".  Parts of Delmarva up to 2" .  CC gets clobbered with 18"  of snow.  Precip pattern is weird considering the strength and location of low.

CMC from 12z, similar, odd precip, tightly wound
Ukmet right about at BM too...


Monday, March 17, 2014

Crazy endings of this winter

3-29 Map from 0z NAM with snow in NJ/PHL (again)


3-28  Map from 12z NAM with snow for the 31st.  This is the only run today with snow in our area.



3-20  Morning - 3-26 storm is just offshore per Euro and brushes us.  Euro ens are a little west and spread is north at 144. NAVGEM has solid hit, CMC has it back over us too. GFS 6z is a bit west of 0z, brushes us as it goes just SE of 40/70. GFS Ens look good at 0z, east at 6z DGEX pops storm off OBX, but heads due east.  DGEX also has snow on Sun Nite.  

3-19  No crazy snow maps today.

 CMC 0z was a hit, 12z OTS, 0z Euro way out, 12z Euro brushes us, 0z-12z GFS went OTS, DGEX doesn't even have it. NAVGEM had a hit on both runs. JMA has one system way to the south, and a clipper coming through.  18z GFS does have snow for the NE, mostly in PA, with a spot in SEPA over a foot, but its not crazy enough to post.  Seems the models, except navgem and 18z gfs lost the energy in the northern branch.  Euro kinda gets it back, at 12z, just offshore, but affects PA/NJ of course. 12z Euro ens support the operational with some minor spread to the NW . 18z GFS ens show storm just east of 40/70 benchmark, with some spread to the N and NW.  Later frame the spread is more widespread, not the result of positioning but strength. NAEFS 0z is clearly out to sea, but with max spread over the N and NW while the 12z is closer, still east of BM. 

3-18 todays crazy snow map courtesy of the 6z gfs run  (0z had snow for us, but a reasonable amount).  Yes thats over a foot of snow in SC/NC.  Models are EVERYWHERE now.  Very inconsistent, all is possible.  


Not to be done by the 12z Euro operational - with 30 inches in NH/ME


3-17 We've had a lot of crazy storms that have missed Fairfield County recently.  Purpose of this post is to show some of the crazy model runs from today forward.  The time frame of around 3-26 is of interest today for the Euro and CMC.

CMC  0z 3-17


MSLP/Precip is all snow with 948 lp from ECMWF ens control  12z 3-16


ECMWf control snow map 12z 3-16


ECMWF operational snow map 12z 3-16





Wednesday, March 12, 2014

More winter???

3-17 - results.  Per below, the area from PHL to IAD cashed in. IAD with 10", BWI with 8".  Even Cape May and Wildwood had at least 8" .  Unbelievable winter for them!

3-14

CMC trended south, NAM and UKMET still affect NYC area.  CMC, GFS and Euro have this locking in on PHL/BWI area, again. Following storm goes to our north now, of course.  

3-13 12z GFS snowmap, with another clipper storm 2 days later

3-13
Euro jumps off the storm, CMC/DGEX and NAM 84hr+ still hold onto it.  Actually, CMC/GGEM and DGEX are insane with snow.  GFS still nada, out to sea.

GGEM

DGEX


3-12 Despite today's storm being rain in S. New England, it does not mean the end of winter.  As it turns to snow at the end, perhaps a dusting, so we need to watch.  Temps plummet.  Then come 3-17,  CMC and DGEX have a snow storm for the area.  JMA and Euro brushes us.   Euro/JMA even has one for the 19th. Below are snow maps for the end time frame of each models run.  And we still only have grass on exposed hills.  So hold on, plenty of ops still left to break 60" here.

CMC 240hrs

dgex 192 hrs

Euro 240 hrs

GGEM post 3-17



Wednesday, March 5, 2014

March 12-14th

3+11 - seems pretty locked in, not too different from below, except really no snow south of the northern suburbs, and even that snow is at the end and not likely accumulating much.  Strong 980 low tracks right over us in 36hrs with todays temps in the 60's.   Just too warm to overcome.  Monday, Wed and Fri next week look interesting on the latest Euro, nothing big, but could be a few inches.

3-8  traveling, but checked 12z euro and gfs. Both pushed north. 0z euro and 6z gfs had a solid snowstorm with a little mix for areas nyc and north.  12z puts us all in rain. The shift nw with the gfs was expected, the euro not as much, though it's not much further north than other runs, just enough to mix. Cmc runs a west to east low right over NYC.  18z gfs comes in with major snowstorm as it runs the low south.  So still no details.  My best guess is HV north of ct, mass and northern New England are very likely getting a good snow. Ct, NYC, RI, SE Mass borderline.  Does not look like areas south of central NJ will see much snow, if any. But the energy isn't sampled yet, so still time for changes.

3-7 evening.  Euro a smidge further north, with12" line along I84.  Euro ens control almost goes to NYC and is sub 980, bringing in a bunch of warmth. Euro Ens has a ton of spread in it.  Favors shifting further NW.

  GFS 12z and 18z line up well, with 6+ for the area.  UKMET has fallen in line with the gfs.  CMC at least has the storm over OK to start, but the lp in front of it along the US border interacts strangely with it.  NAVGEM went off the ranch with an OTS solution from the SE. JMA now also forms a low over Louisiana, broadens and weakens over the SE, then takes it offshore, grazing us.  Latest Snow maps below.




3-7  Euro continues to send the northern stream further south and pick up the southern cutoff.  Result is a 12"+ storm for much of the tristate north of I78.  Storm goes from 996mb over OK, to 984 east of Atlantic City.  Result is a larger area of warm advection snow infront, with dynamical snow as the low reaches the area.  QPF over 1" for everyone. Precip type issues south of N Jersey.

GFS is all over the place yesterday -but the ensembles do have a a996 mb low over the benchmark, which is a good snowstorm.  Today, the 0z run takes a low down to TX, swings it through the SE to the VA/NC border and heads NE.  Not too different than the Euro, except weaker and further east, which is usual for this type of storm on the gfs (although nothing is usual this year).  6z goes OK, KY, VA where its a 1000mb low and slides east, well south of the BM, targeting PHL/SNJ with the most snow, again.  Though most areas get >6".  Not sure the 0z GFS has the qpf right as it taps the Gulf moisture.  Result for 6z run is more inline with that runs track though.

CMC continues to bring the low out of Alberta and along the US border.  Resulting in a nice blast of warmth on Tuesday and frontal passage with rain/snow showers.

UKMET similar to CMC, though it somehow ends at 144 with a huge benchmark storm.



NAVGEM looks similar to Euro/0z gfs
DGEX looks like 6z gfs









3-6 - 0z gfs, 0z euro , navgem, jma have southern energy coming up coast. 6z gfs, cmc and ukmet have lp coming across the plains. All solutions provide precip, thought the cmc involves rain for our area and to the south. GFS and the Euro to a lesser degree are still active in the long range.

3-5 Some frames from the gfs and euro -still long range, but interesting. The stronger solutions give us 9-12 inches of snow.  CMC is a bit different, still snows on the 13th. JMA similar to CMC.  So its very difficult to ignore the 13th-14th time frame, even though the timing and type of storm vary.








Monday, March 3, 2014

Items of interest for first two weeks of March

3-5 -  opening another post for the 13-15th as Euro and GFS have had a storm in the area for the last few runs. Otherwisesome waves moving through the area yesterday and today touch off some flurries.  Some snow showers sunday with frontal passage per Euro.  0z GFS has some systems passing to the north on the 11th and 12th each showing light snow, but those usually don't snow to the south of the low, so we'll see if that happens. The13th has a LP going off the SC/GA coast and the 18th another system, a bit stronger than the 11th and 12th, to our north putting down accumulating snow. 

3-4  Promising storms, nearly disappear as late model runs modify the cold air.

12z run of euro is not nearly as cold as its been, with some times above 0 at 850 in the NE.  Its 10 day run shows storm to the south on the 5/6th, bigger one off obx on the 7/8th, and a 992 low going over NYC on the 14th.  0z run similar except the 12/13th there is a double low with transfer to the coast bringing a good snow to the area then looks like its reloading for the 14/15th.

0z gfs has wave off on the 5th with larger storm on the 7th with snow possibly reaching SNJ.  Wave passing through on the 9th. Clipper on the 11th, with larger storm sliding off GA.  6" storm on the 14th for most of the area.  No real warm up as temps below 850 for most of the run.

12z gfs has lows moving off SE coast on the 5th and 7th with near normal temps over the weekend.  Wave moving through on the 9th. LP sliding off GA on the 12th, while a weak clipper moves to our north, likely rain.  Temps around normal until the 14th when an arctic front comes again but only lasts two days.  A 984 LP moves north to our west on the 18th. 

0z CMC has a storm on the 14th, similar to gfs and euro.  Otherwise its seasonable.

3-3 Pattern remains rather cold with multiple opportunitites for snow. 12z gfs has storm going off obx on friday, 3-7, then a clipper type on sunday 3-9 with a few inches. Wed 3-12 a storm slides off the SE coast and 3-14 a 1004 storm goes just inside the BM for a significant storm, followed by a clipper on 3-16 and a weak wave on 3-18. 6z run has 3-7 storm further south, 3-9 clipper, wave on 3-11, storm slide south on 3-14, wave on 3-15 and southern slider on 3-19. 0z run has weak storm slidking off obx on the 6th, stronger storm just south of us on the 7th, weak storm ont he 9th forming off a frontal passage, wave coming over on the 11th, big miller b ont he 14th, light rain to snow on the 17th. Euro has a couple of inches as a coastal goes by to our east on the 7th, clipper ont he 9th, and a mishmosh on the 12-13th. CMC has nothing noteworthy until the 13th.