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Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Early Dec

12-9  Cold air hung tight today with high of 33.6. Did not get above freezing til noon or so.  Result was lots of ice, 2hr delay.  Barely any snow again, with light snow overnight melted, then refroze when frz rain came.  no real accum

12-8 -The 12-4 snow was a bust, as back end snows usually are.  NWS Albany had Litchfield Hills in 4-8 inches  - they got a dusting.  Most models had PA in at 6 inches, they got two.  Our area got some tiny flakes, but never got below freezing.  Pretty big bust from the models - basically the moisture came and went before the midlevel cold got in place.  So based on the current qpf outputs, 1-2 is a likely scenario, changing to freezing rain. Also think most of the precip will have fallen in sub32 temps, so only little rain/drizzle for Monday.

For tonites event, the amount of qpf is only .15 to .3 depending on the model, with only .15 of it falling while temps are conducive for snow.  It really shouldn't be a big deal - WWA in place though with 1-2 inches possible, and likely.  Sometimes WAA events (aka front end) result in heavier thumps of snow, but thats usually resulting from stubborn cold air.  However, this time there just isn't enough moisture. 

12-4 - no changes.  Slightly less chance on back end fri-sat morn, although its forecasted by nws as a possibility.  Sun-Mon looks more definitive, 1-3 likely at this point, before changing to freezing rain and rain

12-3 - Morning run still have a possible back end snows as a wave comes up the frontal boundary on the 7th.  Possibly our first measurable snow - an inch.  Euro has more front end on the 9th - 3-6 inches, while the GFS has 1-3 inches.  Still need to watch for freezing rain on the ninth.  GFS also has back end snows on the 10th after frontal passage, which while it looks good on the maps, it usually doesn't pan out to more than snow showers.

12-2 - nothing happening until perhaps the 7th or 9th.  Marginal, low yield, precip after cold front on the 7th.  Front end, low yield snow on the 9th (watch for freezing rain that day)

11-30 - Morning run. Only Euro Ens have any precip hitting the area.  The rest all go offshore.  Inverted trough over the cape. NAM is out to 84 and is the closest.

No interesting weather in next two weeks per Euro ens and GFS.  The teleconnections from this morning are +NAO, +AO, -PNA.  This should result in warmer quicker patterns.

Morning run - GFS has inverted trough on the first - interesting.  Euro, JMA have a storm brushing the east coast, affecting mostly the cape and Maine on the 4th.  UKMET is stronger and stacked, negative along the coast on the 4th  GFS is ots on that one, by a lot. So there is some activity in the next 10 days, but nothing major (over 3 inches) at this point.

Models have been on and off over the last few days around the 3-5th range.

Currently, the Euro has a weak storm coming up the coast and intensifying once NE of us.  UKMET is similar, though the afternoon run is outside the BM.  CMC has shortwave coming through and deepening a bit too offshore for us.  GFS 0z run has a weak storm on the 2nd over us, with another stronger storm sliding off the southern coast on the 4th. 12z run has the first low a bit more offshore, the second one far out at sea.  Euro's output had 1-2 inches of snow. GFS has the same, despite the offshore development

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Late November issues

11-27 - no updates needed since 11-24 as nothing changed. GFS capitulated on the  11-24 afternoon run.  Low came right over DXR at 994mb.  It was amoebalike in that it was consolidated, then stretched, a second low did form, briefly. The winds didn't amount to much at the house, although were in the 40's along the coast.  Temp peaked at 60 (62 at DXR) at 6am, fell throughout the day (40 as of 3pm).  Rain amounts were over 3.5" as of noon, but there was still a lot of rain coming through.  Radar showed w nj changing to snow.  GFS 1, Euro 1

Morning - Euro goes over or just to west of NYC.  CMC well west of the area.  Both would have 850 temps near 10C.  GFS is still out of sorts.  It still has a slow southern stream, almost cut off, though it drops the northern stream coming through now with snow.  Instead its now onto the storm coming up the coast, just offshore, but still holds back energy for a second low to go ots.    GFS Track looks possible now, brings snow per below, but with still little support, hard to go with it.  Lots of rain, 3-4 inches on euro.  NAM brings stretched low up the coast, consolidates

Morning - GFS 0z run goes OTS, but does leave behind some snow for us.  Euro puts a weaker system right over us resulting in rain, and a little snow.  Canadian puts 996 low right over us.   JMA runs right over us.  GFS 6z still way OTS with little if any precip. So its the Euro/CMC/JMA/GFS Ens/UKMET vs the GFS operational!  Looking like a mostly rain event with some snow mixed.  Possible 1" accums show on most maps.
Afternoon - no changes
GFS 6z snow
GFS 6z position

GFS 0z snow

Euro MSLP 0z

Euro snow 0z

Afternoon - GFS is out to sea (OTS).  No precip.  Not good.
GFS Ensembles bring classic noreaster.  Perhaps a bit too close to the coast.  Argues the operational may not be correct. 
Euro - looks like yesterday afternoon - stretched out along the coast, two waves. Mix of rain/snow.  The printout of 850 temps is quite warm though, mostly rain.
CMC - further west than before, actually goes to our west.

Attached Image

Morning - GFS, CMC, Euro and JMA all have storm on Wed.  0z/6z GFS currently the furthest EAST, brings a mix of rain and snow for NW NJ, Orange, Putnam, N Fairfield, Litchfield Cty - with most being the furthest N or W.  The amounts range from 3-9 inches.  GFS, I think because it deepens the storm later, is warmer aloft and at the surface, which is not common when its the furthest east.
Euro brings storm inside of benchmark which usually means rain for most of the area.  However, since it deepens the storm so much, it draws in the cold air aloft, keeps the surface near freezing, and puts out 6-9 inches for the areas mentioned above, with some changeover to all snow for most other areas, and accumulating an inch or two
CMC phases a little later, inside the benchmark, bringing cold air in at the end.
JMA phases over VT, its the furthest west, with mostly all rain for the area.
Precip ranges from 1.2 to 2 inches - well needed.
Too close to call - climatology says mix, mostly rain except for Catskills, Poconos, Berkshires.  But the situation is so borderline that shifts of 50 miles in the track or 5mb in strength make the difference between all snow and all rain for DXR.  I would be confident in having a lousy Wednesday though.
Below are the positions from the Euro, GFS and Canadian - typically the result from these positions is rain with snow far inland.  

Attached Image
Euro - GFS - CMC

Euro snow

Morning - Euro has storm, rather stretched out along coast. No snow. An inch to two inches, NW to SE of rain. Cold air after may turn lingering precip to snow. GFS has some light snow on Tuesday, but much colder Wed and shoves storm out to see off NC.
Afternoon - GFS ditches the snow on Tuesday, stretches out a storm on Wed - Thurs, but does so more at a 45 degree angle off NC/SC. So still OTS. Euro consolidates the storm a little more than on the 0z run, but takes it directly up the coast over us, with over 2 inches of needed rain. The difference between the 850 temps from the GFS to the Euro is about 20 degrees - they are really that far apart now. Euro has a little snow on the back end. Throw the CMC into the mix, which looks closer to the euro, but holds off the coast and brings in the cold air, which means a snowier solution, but less overall precip. 11-20
Afternoon - 12z models including CMC now go out to sea.  Euro has some snow from the clipper, but not much.  Printout for Euro didn't match the graphic - printout had .5 inches of liquid mostly above freezing.  Graphic had 3 inches of snow, tues nite into wed.  850 temps and thickness are a tad too high. Continue to monitor.

Morning - GFS loses the cutoff, moves to Euro solution.  There is a high chance of a noreaster, not too strong on these runs, on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, followed by a bust of cold air.  At this point, it does not look like the cold air in front of the storm will remain in place, so that the immediate tri state is mostly rain, but there could be front end and back end snow.  GFS even has snow on the ground.  EURO puts 1-3 down for the N&W subs, but plasters Upstate NY/VT with over 12 inches.

11-20 GFS 0z

11-20 Euro 0z

11-20 6z gfs snow


11-27 ish time frame, Euro onto a storm coming up the coast.  GFS has a cut off low over TX.  Euro is amplified, GFS is zonal over the northern CONUS. Wonder which one will be right
GFS 0z 11-19
EURO 0z 11-19

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Mid november possibilities


GFS is sunny and cold, high pressure in place
Euro has 12-24 inches of snow, 977 low off benchmark, and 30-40mph winds, over 50mph gusts
Euro maps
Euro wind gusts in kts

Euro snowfall

Euro Pressure and precip
GFS Maps - clouds

GFS Pressure


Euro has been on a cut off low dropping out of Canada, with air cold enough to possibly bring snow.  (see bottom of winter outlook) for a few days now.

GFS is kinda on board, different surface and upper air, but check out the snow totals and locations from the 0z and 6z runs.  CMC has a big high in place that day, but a disturbance brings a line of snow a few days earlier.

Monday, November 4, 2013

Winter outlook

Slow fade into winter....  October ended a little above normal, but dry - only 6% of monthly precip.  November looks above normal, not dramatically.  My initial thoughts were our first snow around the 24th of November, with first snowfall over an inch in mid December.  Consensus of sources are showing warm to start, cold to end with near normal snowfall.  I wouldn't be surprised going with only an inch of snow until January, perhaps late January.   This is similar to  2011-2012 when aside from the late Oct storm, we only had 13" of snow from Nov-Mar.  Our first snowfall over an inch came in late Jan that year. 

Supporting no winter for now, is the strong positive AO, positive NAO and what is going to a strong negative PNA - this combination should bring mild weather, with a lack of big storms, although impulses may bring rain from time to time. 

Also favoring a storm pattern to the great lakes, putting us in warm sectors often, with quicker shots of cold after fronts.  Looking at a SE ridge that doesn't want to budge in the short term (through Nov and likely into DEC).   Some talk of a sudden stratopheric warming event is out there, which typically flips patterns, but I'm skeptical that it happens, and if it does, they are hinting at Dec, which may not be that cold to start anyway. 

I'm going with within .5 degrees of normal, probably warmer, dry, with under 30 inches of snow, mostly in late Jan/Feb/Mar.  Hope I'm wrong.

 There is no change indicated on the long range models. Actually, there is a tropical storm hitting us on the GFS on the 20th.  Euro ens control disagrees, although it does have a strong southerly flow bringing tropicalish air in.