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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

March in and out as a lion?

3/24 - yes! the reverse jinx worked. NAO seems to want to go negative. Now before excitement builds, the forecasted NAO has been way below the actuals all year. Its actually remarkably bad, so any forecast for a neg NAO now is suspicious. But what it does is block the system to the lakes. The GFS and Euro have responded to this, albeit slightly for now. Instead of over Lake Michagan, the 0z euro has over Chicago, but then jumps eastward over CT. The 12z GFS has it completely east of the lakes now. So if we can get fridays storm to intensify a little more, drag down some colder air, we still have a shot on Sunday. Lets see if the eastward trend continues. BTW - CAN had a little storm with snow Mon-Tues - but that model has been completely overdone this year.

3/23 - this one goes to the lakes. One weak system on the 1st or 2nd may try to get into the cold air, but otherwise nothing impressive. GFS continues to try and establish a trough over us in the 7-14 day period, but as we are seeing, the trough only lasts a day or two then out and in with a new one. The Sunday storm looks like its trying to secondary, which would work for snow during winter, but not in spring. This could be the last post of the season.

3/17 Lets keep an eye out for the end of March. The GFS keeps trying to dump a trough in for the 20th to the 1st. But check out this picture from the 6z run this morning. Its for the 29th... 0z has it on the 28th and 12z has it too...

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Has anyone heard the D word mentioned?

3/15 - Well the winter is winding down. Despite the long runs of the gfs operational and ensembles insisting a trough coming in 3/20 for the duration of the model run (15 days) and temps at 5000 feet staying below freezing, there seems to be no storms to take advantage of the cold air. Which brings up an interesting, scary fact. At DXR (danbury airport) the precip for the last 6 months is 18.07 inches. Normal is 24.46 inches. So its 75% of normal with only January having above normal precip. The NY reservoirs in Putnam are very, very low.

Monday, March 9, 2009

March 16th - 18th

3-11 No longer any prediction of the trough in the east for the 16-19th on the EUro or GFS. Canadian has nice storm/trough on the 18th. Euro has wave hitting around CT on the 16th (late 15th) with temps marginal for snow. Gfs has that wave further south. So, there is a chance of snow/rain on Sunday into monday. We need the snow at night this time of year. Average highs in CT are in the mid forties.

This time of year storm track can no longer be counted on to bring snow. Cold air must be in place and the storm must pass east or south of the area. As of now, models have one storm, weak, off coast 3/16, but bringing more rain than snow. Then clear the 17th and then the trough buckles on the 18th with perhaps a rain to snow event. CMC and GFS are only models this far out as of today (3/9) though. Updates if things change.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Calm...

Some possible light wintry precip Thurs nite into Friday 3/6.
Warm up after that looks to hold until the 12th
After that it gets real cold again
Keep eye on St. Patricks day for next storm