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Sunday, January 31, 2010

Continued Snow Drought 2-1 to 2-16

The lastest GFS on 1/31 shows only .05 of precip over the next two weeks. First one is week one, second is week two.

Watching 2/6 - 2/8




2/3. Cmc, euro, go south now. Euro completely misses. Cmc brushes. Ukmet pulled in and north. Dgex makes hard right at obx. But 0z, 6z and 12z nam and gfs are bringing precip up to mass border. HM and BS are looking for 4-8 around nyc. Nws has 30 percent chance.
2/2 - Models have trended north all day. Euro and now 18z GFS, DGEX and CAN have it parked off DE to S Jersey with snow reaching Albany except for DGEX which goes to LI. We are at the -8 isotherm, which is great for snow production and with .5 inches on the gfs, could be close to a foot. GFS Ens have it still going east of DE, but the spread is greatest to the north. UKMET still way out to see with a 984 low. Will the northerly trend continue? Usually does until 72 hrs.
Meanwhile, looking for an inch or so tomorrow morn.


2/1 - most models taking out to sea
0z Euro Th nite Elpaso, Fr nite Hilton Head, Sat nite 150 miles east of OBX - furthest north snow is DC
12z Euro fri morn NOLA, Sat morn, just off Delmarva with precip likely up to NYC, Upper low then jumps down over us and has some more light snow
0z CAN Fri morn OK and MS, Sat morn, 984 over Chesapeke, Sun morn 988 over benchmark - clocks us with snow. Should note that the GEM does not have the support of its ensemble members
0z Nogaps Fri morn Tampa, Sat morn double barrel KY and 50 miles off NC, Sun morn 988 just off delmarva with a weak low over west ny. Somehow this does not present a snow for us on its map??
0z GFS - 12z fri over talahassee, right along coast until OBX on Sat morn where goes offshore and spins through Sunday. Snow reaches DC
6 z - same as 0z but a little closer in on Sat morn, spins off coast moving slightly ne on sun. Brings snow into S Jersey
12z fri 12z double barrel over Tallahassee and Jacksonville, Just east of OBX on Sat 12z, spends all day there and moves along come SUnday morn. Snow just south of Cape May.
DGEX -6z - 12z fri main low over MS/AL. 12z Sat 984 over Delmarva. 12z Sun off NJ 100 miles. Creams us with snow, but only as far north as Mass border
UKMEt 0z fri nothing, 0z sat over GA,0z sun 200 miles east of delmarva, but kinda shows a second low right behind it over VA.
12z - off SC and out to sea
GFS ENS all show it going out to see, but with some snow making it into the area- 1-3 inches.


Heres the problem I see. Looking along the VA/NC border area, and most of VA, the conditions are right for all snow. However, the precip being printed out by the GFS is over 2 inches. So when was the last time you heard S VA, or NC, in the I-95 area, getting two feet of snow????





1/31 - 0z Euro had extreme situation on the table with lows coming up the coast with another diving down behind it dumbelling around, causing snow for days, and lots of it. The risk with that was rain along the coast. 12z is sending the first low out to sea, but still dumbelling the second one in. Either solution brings snow into our area
Canadian also shows us getting hit at the same time, but without the second one being very strong. First once clocks us -same for both runs.
GFS -6z parks a 988 low off demarva for sat and sunday. 12z shoots it out to sea off OBX after playing around with it. 18z brings snow as far north as s jersey. I like seeing the GFS further south, especially with energy diving down behind.
DGEX - 6z run right up 95 with a brief stall over nj. Brings heavy snow, ending as rain. 18z brings it up to Chesapeke, where it stalls and snow gets as far north as Philly.
UKMEt has it aimed for us in the 0z, but out to sea on the 12z.
JMA has it heading from Chesapeke to Cape Cod. With another storm following...
GFS Ens are not optimistic. Low gets to OBX and hooks right due east on all runs today. Top .1 of precip gets to CT/MA border, but dominant precip type has a big donut hole over CT. The only hope is that the higher spread area is to the north which indicates further north movement sooner.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Two storms, well one and a half

1-30 Watching wednesday for a small storm coming across the plains - may end up sneaking some in like last thursday. Or it may phase with coastal - 18z nam starting to see that at the end of its run. Would likely be south, but will watch

Bigger event for the 6-7th. Low coming up from the gulf. All models have it and its pretty strong. Some slow it down right over us. Chances are on this one it goes north though... and snow turns to rain, despite the gfs trying to run it south. GFS won the last battle though...

Thursday, January 28, 2010

sneak attack!

Quick two inches this morning fouled up morning commutes with scores of accidents. Snow started around 6-6:30 and quickly covered the roads. Sanders did not get out until 8 or so for the main roads and visibilities were under a mile. Snow should persist through the day, picking up when the artic front comes through.

The forecast had been for 40% of snow showers or flurries, accumulations under an inch.

Looks to be very cold for a few days after this.
Next chance of a storm is Tues nite!

Sunday, January 24, 2010

jan 30th storm

1-26 morning runs. After an encouraging 0z gfs and 6z dgex run, all models - UKMET, CAN, EURO, JMA, GFS and GFS Ens are leading this storm out to sea south of OBX.

AFternoon runs - OUT TO SEA!!! No more posts unless this changes.

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above: gfs ensemble 24 hr precip for ending Sat nite 1/30
1-25

0z GFS - no formed storm on Saturday - week stretched out lows on Friday south of OBX

6z 996 low heads just south of benchmark on Sat nite - good snow

12z further out than 6z, but still heads north southeast of benchmark. no snow

Candian - 0 and 12z runs have snow, but southeast of benchmark sat morn. weaker at 1004

Euro - 0z brushes CT going from OBX to Nova Scotia Sat to Sun. Only at 1006 as it goes by deepenint to 996 sun nite as it hits Canada. 12 z looks a little closer, but still only brushing us. A bit stronger with a 992 off Cape Cod (150 miles or so though)

UKMET 0z and 12z similar paths near benchmark, with the 12z run having a 980 low.

DGEX - 6z has no real formed low, except down at Myrtle beach heading due east. 18z has it coming further north of OBX, but then turning south. only at 1006

GFS Ensembles have it coming just southeast of BM. But spreads the precip wider than on the GFS operational, so that we get at least 6+ see picture above





1-24 Above is the 0zEuro for 1-30 with the storm right off cape cod. Canadian was same. The 12z runs also had similar look with storm just a tad further east.
0z gfs has no storms at all
6z gfs goes off the delmarva - bringing snow
12z gfs is south of hatteras
ukmet looks south, but hard to tell this far out
6z dgex is off hatteras

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Snow drought continues until maybe the 30th

1-23

While we will get some much needed rain on Sun nite, the snow drought for January continues, with the end perhaps coming on the last day of the month. Cold air returns on tuesday and continues indefinitely. Bad part is that the euro and every other gfs run, and the canadian, have the storm on 1/30 going to our south. Canadian is closest 6z run gfs has it hitting us square, but perhaps warming up enough for rain. Wait, this just in...

18z gfs run today now takes that low on friday to Cleveland and up into Canada.
12z gfs run has the low on friday south of Birmingham and goes out off Hatteras
6z has over knoxville and exiting off the Delmarva
0z has it south of Birmingham on friday and exiting south of Hatteras
thats messed up.
Pix of the maps for 0z sat are included here



Even worse - the gfs ensembles have no formed low pressure either next friday or saturday anywhere east of the miss.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Jan 22nd minor storm

1/23 - yeah that one went way south of us.

1-19
While the gfs does its typical run of the storm out to sea, CMC has this grazing CT and so does the Euro. All models have enough cold air in place and the high looks pretty good to the north.
Gfs ensembles leaning north to bring precip into the area, but not very much at this point.

Looks to be more coastal, but with marginal surface temps right along the coast, might mix with rain, with mostly snow, say between the merrit and 184 or 95 and 84. A 1-3 inch storm max right now. But, these have developed higher amounts and further north all season.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

1-12 and still dry over CT



Danbury remains in the desert with .11 of precip in the next two weeks. However rest of country starts to moisten

Sunday, January 10, 2010

19th storm

1-19 - got half inch of snow per dxr - was in vt where we got 5". only got .12 output too. Still way dry.

1-16 morning - ct right on snow line aloft , but temps above freezing per surface maps.
Ukmet still well north, all rain for ct. CMC well north, all rain. Euro brings snow line down towards the end of the storm.

1-15 12z runs - Euro now has 850 line over CT, before after and during. 540 line is still too far north
CMC - starts with the 850 line in Canada on Sunday, but collapses it on Monday down to MA/CT
UKMET - brings 850 line down to MA
GFS - brings 850 line down to CT (and is much faster)
NAM - brings 850 down to S. VT and is fast like GFS

Most interesting is that all the models, except the NAM, bring the low just south of LI, nw of the benchmark, which would normally result in a rain event at the shore and snow inland, sometimes way inland. So it may not be as strange of an event now that the low has shifted north. Nam has it going over CT.


1-15 - all models have temps at 850 well to our north, with US models trying to cool things for snow. With a low going to our south, in the coldest time of the year (ave high 35 here), and the temp the day before only 36, this should be snow. UKMET and CAN has 850 line in Canada, Euro in Northern New ENgland, 0z NAM drops it down over us, 0z GFS drops it just south of CT. 6z NAM makes it only South to MA. GFS has it splitting CT. Looks like rain to wet snow event.




1/13 - Euro still has it, although warm and weak. GFS has it in a major way now at 102 hrs. See pictures above of that. Should be rain to snow event, or all snow for much of CT. CAN still out to sea.





1/12 The GFS, UKMET and CAN all have storm going way south (18z gfs is closer though). Euro has it just making it north enough for CT, but ironically, rain, at least to start. Key is the trough coming behind it and the GFS kicking a low out ahead. Not sure why this is underlined. See still dry post for pic of output from storm, or lack thereof.

1-10
GFS ensembles, 18z operational, and jma have storm coming up the coast. Earlier runs out to sea, adjusting north. Will it go even further north? Precip output for this run was 1.25 over CT.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

1/9 still dry...



Here are some shots from the gfs for week one ending the 16th and two ending the 23rd. Thats two weeks where the tri state area gets a total of .02 in preceip.
There is a storm now on the horizon for the 24th. The storm on the 19th or so goes out to sea over GA on the 17th now. The next one on the GFS hits our area on the 25th. There will be some breaks in the cold until then. Will we go the whole month without a major snow?????

Monday, January 4, 2010

Too cold to snow


Not that its too cold, its just that the pattern has the storms being pushed so far south, they don't even show up on the CONUS. Once they form, they go into the gulf into or around FL petering out as they do.

The GFS has one storm on the entire map east of the Miss. Its the 19th and up the coast on the 0z run, 17th on the 6z and a little further inland and a great lakes cutter on the 17th for the 12z run. The 18z run has no storms at all!

This caption is the gfs at 180 hrs total precip - outside the PAC west, no other area picks up more than .5 inches of liquid.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Jan 8-9

1/4/10 - Euro still has a small clipperish system with the most moisture CMC is similar but drier. GFS and NAM have some minor output but don't develop it into a low pressure until way after. the US models seem to be about a day faster.

1/3/10
Not showing up on many models, but the Euro has a great storm from VA to Cape Cod on the 8th. GFS kinda shows it, but a little further out. Not excited yet, but will continue to watch.

Shortwave comes through on Wed, but no model has any precip with it.

Fears that its too cold for snow