Christmas outlook

12-23  Amazingly, the forecast holds from below.

12-15  10 days out now....looks nice (12-22 storm is being watched but is off FL today, so not opening)GFS first, above normal in the 40s

Euro eps control a little cooler, in 30s

12-17 ice/snow storm.

12-15 Watching a potentially dangerous ice storm scenario set up for NPA, NNJ, SNY, CT, RI

Its a weak low pressure which models are agreeing now that will move to our south.  There will be enough of a push of warm air as illustrated by the area circled in the skewT

The good news is that the current trend is for colder air, represented by the movement south of the 0c at 850mb line, commonly used as the snow/rain line.

So there is a chance we get that line further south for some of the storm and get more snow than ice.
The euro is much colder aloft and trending this way as well.

If the euro wins this, it means more snow, less ice. 

Which trend is below.

If the NAM wins, then its some ice.

If GFS wins, its a major problem

Dec 11 - Front with wave

12-11 Results - we got 3.5" here and 1-4" was the general range .

12-8  While its going to be approaching 60 the next few days, once the cold front comes through, there is a chance of snow.  Its currently being labeled an anafront, which is when precip falls mainly after frontal passage.  This is caused by cold air at the ground to 5000 foot level advancing faster than the departing warm air.  It pushes the warm air up, causing it to cool and precipitate. These are rare, and even more rarely generate meaningful snow.  I'm looking at it as a frontal passage with a wave riding up the front, which is more common but almost as rare generates meaningful snow.

Today's model runs do have snow the area - general 1-3 inches can be expected.  NWS has 1-3 in the forecast for Danbury.

 6zEuro

6z GFS

12z NAM

9z Short range ensembles

7am NWS forecast map