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Sunday, January 30, 2011

2-5 or 2-6

2-3

12z euro still showing .5 at least for precip. Its alone in that respect, so I'll say 3-6 is more likely. NWS calling for mix for Danbury now, which could happen and keep amts down. We are barely below freezing at 850 on most runs now, but that doesn't mean that either in between time frames, or at a different layer, warm air moves in briefly.

0z cmc moving closer, 12z cmc has the storm again.
0z euro is showing the low right over nyc, but cold, with snow for most n or w of nyc.
0z gfs looks good - acy to ack. But its a little warm, so r/s line is pretty far nw at first.
6z gfs further east - va beach to bm. colder, but less precip. Same with 12z
0z UKMEt goes from KY to NYC. Warm and west. 12z forms a coastal to compete with the low in KY, but brings them together over NYC. Too west and warm for snow with in 60 miles of NYC.
0z NAM PHL to NYC - mix or rain for most of the area. Same with 6z, but could be more rain turning to snow. 12z has the KY solution of the ukmet, brings the coastal and inland together at NYC.

Now if they phase over NYC, and have the upper low there too, then upper air dynamics may drive temps down and turn rain to snow. Its not like its all that warm to begin with.

Right now, I don't buy the ukmet and nam solution, leaning toward gfs euro. Precip on NAM and GFS is between .25 and .5, while Euro is .5. While its a short storm, still not convinced that the precip is enough since its coming from the gulf.



2-2 - Euro runs and GFS from 0,6 and 12z showing the low coming up the coast, well inside the bm, bringing a mix to the NYC area, and a 4-8 inch storm to N and W. 0z cmc has storm in same position, but colder, bringing all snow. The 18z wrf aka nam has the low right over nyc, but a cold solution so the r/s line is right outside the city, but the 12z has the low in the same spot but warmer, with r/s line 30-40 miles n and w. 0z ukmet has low over cape cod. Can't tell exactly where the ukmet 12z runs, but it looks to initialize further west than the 0z.

Then there was the 12z ggem/cmc run which had it going out to sea off the carolinas. And the wacky 18z gfs which hits the bm with a good snow storm. The JMA goes just east of the BM.

Ens - gfs 12z was over the BM, the 18z just inside. Euro 0z right over NYC, 12z really doesn't form well, goes east of CCOD. CMC ensembles don't come near us.

Prelim precip amts range from .2 to 1". So you're cone of uncertainty goes from Myrtle Beach to Binghamton. Throwing out the 12z CMC,

This storm looks like a fast mover - 6-8 hrs of moderate snow, with a chance of a mix in and around nyc south and east. Accums should be 4-6, perhaps 8 in the northern subs where its colder and a higher ratio can kick in. Forecast would be based on average of models, with cmc tossed aside.

2-1

oz euro looks like its trying to phase with a clipper and brings weak storm up west of the apps, with rain here. This is similar to yesterdays runs, but todays 12z run keeps it cold enough here for snow as it forms a 1010 low off obx and brings it to a 1000 low over the BM. Sort of still phases it with the northern stream once at the bm. Looks like a 4-6 inch storm.

0z and 6zgfs has classic snow track, inside obx to ack, but little precip - 2-4 inches. 12z is a little closer to the coast, but still little precip for a storm starting in the gom and going up the coast.
0z cmc brings dbl barrel low up, then a coastal, right along the nj coast to ack at 1000mb
12z cmc taks low from ACY over nassau cty and west of new haven, resulting in a mix for us.
UKMET, both runs, have a bm low.
6z dgex goes right over nyc, bringing rain to most of the metro area. 18z brings storm up del river, phases and reforms over boston.
JMA has classic bm track

An inland storm seems unlikely, but maybe its the start of a trend.


1-30

0z euro grazes us with 3-6 inches
0z cmc has the 2-5 storm way out to sea, but brings another up late on the 6th
0z gfs grazes us 1-3
6zdegx brings 992 low over bm
0z nogaps has weak artic clipper moving through
12z euro tries to run it west of the apps, but secondaries off nj, not a lot of cold air though, only .3 qpf with 850 temp partially above freezing
12z cmc does the same as euro, but later on Sunday, but is colder and keeps it snow - looks bad
12z gfs brings snow up to s jersey, but then heads out to sea after, but the wacky 18z gfs has a direct hit 996 over bm
18z dgex brings low up to pittsburgh, then reforms over the catskills - rain to heavy snow for us, but not much further south.
12z jma goes out south

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

2-1 to 2-3

Reality - 4" on the first batch. 1" of sleet/snow and a .3" of ice on 2-2. It did break freezing, but 6 hrs after precip ended, and only for an hour or two. It also oddly spiked again in the evening, right before the cold front came through. Lots of collapsed roofs, although power outages were not too bad. Two days off of school and a late opening on 2-3.


2-1

afternoon update - warmer trend on the models today continues. The gfs even includes a change to plain rain, but doubting that it would be in time to avoid a terrible ice storm. Hope right now is for sleet, not freezing rain. So far today, 4" of snow, temps in the low 20's.

0z nam came in warmer than previous with 850 temps in danbury. 850 line on nam goes to ct/ma border now. Odd since the low is weaker. Surface temps below freezing throughout still. The first band comes through with 4-6 inches, then quits, spits and I hope sleets. But with 3.6 at 850, more likely is freezing rain. 18z gfs also puts out 4-6, maybe even 8 before it turns. but then it also crashes the 850 line at 42hr (18zwed) as heavy precip breaks out, before flipping it north over us again at hr 48, then south of us at 54. So only a 6hr time frame to be rain. 18z gfs ens have low exiting south of nyc. 21z sref goes south of us as well. So the ens are looking more like snow/sleet. The operationals are more freezing rain.

0z gfs just in, followed nam in warming at 850, guaranteeing ice storm!

Latest RGEM has snow starting around midnite. Heavy for the am rush. Done by pm rush. Hits NNJ hard with ice, here its heavy snow going to sleet. Seems to have gotten colder, but we would also get ice at dxr, and a very brief period of rain at the end.


1-31

Focusing on frz rain v snow as surface temps on all models barely make it to or stay below freezing. CMC is norther outlier, NAM is southern outlier. Difference in storm track is 150-200 miles. NAM is only model showing mainly snow, GFS and Euro in the middle showing a bad ice storm. NAM's performance last storm was miserable, but it was too warm. Key is which model gets the transfer right and which is modeling the high pressure to our north right.

12z runs
GFS still at CT.MA border, dips just below. However, the printed data showing much warmer as almost 24 hrs is above freezing at 850, but that just means an inch of ice instead of a foot of snow. Max 850 temp on this run is 3.7
Euro- no visual yet, but printout shows increase in 850 temp to 4.5
NAM - along the Merrit to about 20 miles inland around New London, but printout shows dxr getting as high as .3 (but on Tuesday?) and as high as -1.1 on wed.
CMC still at Ma/VT border is now showing signs of a secondary off Jersey coast.
UKMET has line going through CT.

ENS - gfs and sref have the low exiting south of NYC - it is not unusual to have them off to the southeast, but it does indicate that the GFS and NAM are not certain of their solution and could trend colder. Euro ENS has a little spread to the SE, and actually shows a storm over the BM, albeit weak, but otherwise supports the 0z ensemble. NMM and AVR each have an all snow solution with storm well south of NYC. CMC ensembles mostly clustered LP between S Jersey and Plattsburgh, so big spread, but concentrated around southern new england.




oz runs - mostly getting colder
GFS brings 850 line to MA/ CT with a max temp of 1.3, 6z goes along I 84
Euro brings 850 line just north of dxr with max temp of 2.2
Nam - brings it to I 84, with 6z run brining it to the coast
CMC - still at MA/VT border




At right Weatherman's challenge - 850 temps, Canadian model vs NAM

18z NAM and GFS have complete 15-20 inch snowstorm for CT.

1-30

Looking like ice storm as surface temps remain at or just above freezing on the models, which are usually a bit too high with cold air damming situations
Watching trends to see which way this is moving - it was drifting north yesterday, need to see if shift south is a trend or blip - not usual for a south correction with this storm, but its starting to look like that jump to the coast comes off the C Jersey coast.
850 line at 18z wed
Euro 12z 1/29 was at mass vt border
Euro 0z 1/30 closer to mass ct border -max surface 1.2 850 4.7
GFS 12z 1/29 at mass ct border
gfs 18z at mass vt border
gfs 0z just south of the mass vt border
gfs 6z just south of mass ct border
gfs 12z just on mass ct border - surface temp does get to 1.4, but winds stay n to ne
nam 6z wed just south of vt border
nam 0z 12z wed just south of mass pike with 6z temps just north of ct border
nam 6z for 18z wed over I 84 as is 12z and 6z
nam 12z pushes 18z wed back to ct/ma border.
0z cmc has it at the ct/ma border - low going just s of here
12 z 1/29 nogaps is at ct/ma border
0z 1/30 nogaps is phl through cent nj
1/29 jma is highpoint to bennington




1-29

12z - Euro has temps aloft at dxr at a 4.9 max and surface at 2.1. NWS acknowledges the euro temps are generally too high, and using gfs in this case. Euro brings light precip in tues morn, leaving it all snow, with 2-4 inches from that impulse. Main storm begins 12z wed, as snow, but with the track right over us, it warms up to freezing rain (and rain by the surface temps which as noted are too high). A brief turn to snow by wed nite as well. 850 line at hr 102 is at the mass/vt border. Total precip is an inch, so not a disaster either if it goes to all rain or all snow.

12z track takes it right over us. Temps at 85o go above 0 from 18z to 0z, but not by much. Surface temps well below freezing throughout the event makes it a nasty ice storm.

18z gfs - warms it up enough, to 6c at 850 and 1.5 at the surface for a rain event from 18z through 0z on wed/thurs. It too shows a lead impulse on tuesday that would bring 2-3 inches, then a drizzle period, then rain and no turn back to snow. Its track is north of us, between kingston and albany.

GFS is trending north.

CMC this time is the southeastern outlier - with low going south of NYC resulting in all snow for us.

JMA goes from North Louisiana to Capecod in 24hrs, so its hard to tell temps and if it goes directly over or under.

UKMET seems to go to our west, but can't really tell.

DGEX brings it right over us, warm, and still has a storm on Saturday too.
Euro ens supports its operational.
CMC ens supports its operational.
GFS ens are south of its operational, but with significant spread to the north.

Todays conclusion - wintry mix, with likely changing to all rain.


----

0z cmc brings weak snow through tues nite and a weak double barrel through wed nite, one the north, one to the south with danbury right on the rain snow line.
oz euro brings a small distrubance up tues nite, with the main low going from central IN to NYC. It has a little too much warmth for us for my liking based on the track
ukmet is further south to start, in TN instead of IN and goes to Nova Scotia in 24 hrs.
dgex has one disturbance, looks like waa, and the second goes right over us and does its transfer to the coast then. Keeps us below freezing, but temps aloft look warm enough for freezing rain.
dgex also has a big storm for sunday too.
0z gfs has storm like the ukmet - starting further south and going just to the south of our area, but close enough to cause mixing problems in the area, with threat of snow and freezing rain mainly here.
6z gfs is similar - snow, frzrain, snow situation
Mets - including nws, JB calling for all snow for here so far.




1-28

0z cmc had western storm, up the apps, 12z had it transferring coastal around dc and keeping it all snow.
0z euro hit dead on, 12 headed further north across pittsburgh, albany and east across s vt. snow, ice, rain situation as the temps on the printout were only barely above freezing at the surface and 2 above at 850
All gfs solutions brought snow as the storm was south
JMA brings snow as storm is just south, more over trenton and just s of nyc.
nogaps has storm same as jma
UKMET 0z I dont' remember and the 12z had similar features to the euro
DGEX had nice storm, with weak disturbance on Tues nite and more on wed nite

1-27

0z euro pops a miller b off the NJ coast tues nite and starts bringing a weak system up coast on wed nite.
12z run looks like a frontal passage with a low riding up from the gulf - quick hitter. Precip on it was .81 though. passes well se of bm, but front enhance precip.

0z gfs has frontal passage with enhancement tues nite. LP develops over NOLA tues nite and slides off S\NC coast wed nite
12z GFS has storm hitting bm wed nite
0z GGEM brings low from NOLA up the TN Valley and off the NJ coast
12z GGEM flopped to a glc with some front end snow turning to rain
6z dgex has front with weak low on tues, stronger 998 low going from NOLA, up the TN valley off NJ and inside bm.

1-26

Brief rundown on next week.
GFS, except for the 18z run which shows a storm on the 3rd, is quiet
CMC, has major storm on the first.
Euro showing a Great Lakes Cutter, but the 12 z also had a huge WAA event for us. Not seeing the cold air damming though.
Nogaps has storm on Wed
DGEX has storm on Tuesday, not a major one though
I think the UKMET is brewing up a storm post 144hr that starts in the Gulf and cuts to the lakes or apps - we'll see tomorrow.

Post 1-26 storm

Perhaps a two clippers will come through. Models go back and forth as to strength and amount of precip, but wouldn't be surprised if we got 1-2 inches from Fri nite into Sat and 2-4 Sat nite into Sun. Nothing major.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Jan 26th

1-27 - total of 13" from both segments. 10 overnite, 1 between 2-8 and 2.5 before.
Other totals were amazing. Reports of 25" in Woodstock. All reports East of the River, in the northern counties were over 12", with Staffordsville officially at 19". In southern ct, most towns got 12" or more, with a few right along the coast with 9.

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
NEW CANAAN 18.0 530 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST NORWALK 17.0 110 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 14.5 530 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORWALK 14.0 543 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BRIDGEPORT 13.0 600 AM 1/27 COOP OBSERVER
DANBURY 13.0 215 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SHELTON 13.0 215 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
DARIEN 12.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
MIDDLETOWN 15.0 535 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
OLD SAYBROOK 13.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
HADDAM 12.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NORTH HAVEN 18.5 605 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
MILFORD 15.0 300 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
BRANFORD 15.0 554 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
NEW HAVEN 13.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
SOUTHBURY 12.5 440 AM 1/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WATERBURY 10.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
BEACON FALLS 9.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
MERIDEN 9.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
LISBON 17.5 702 AM 1/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLCHESTER 15.0 200 AM 1/27 CT DOT
NORTH FRANKLIN 13.5 625 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
GROTON 12.0 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
UNCASVILLE 9.0 320 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
NORWICH 8.5 400 AM 1/27 CT DOT
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...
   THOMASTON             10.5   600 AM  1/27  CT DOT
THOMASTON DAM 10.5 700 AM 1/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
WOODBURY 10.0 800 AM 1/27 WOODBURY SKI AREA
NEW MILFORD 7.5 946 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
WINSTED 7.5 824 AM 1/27 SPOTTER
LITCHFIELD 7.0 600 AM 1/27 CT DOT
TORRINGTON 7.0 346 AM 1/27 PUBLIC
CORNWALL 7.0 714 AM 1/27 MOHAWK MTN SKI AREA
BAKERSVILLE 6.5 730 AM 1/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
WINCHESTER CENTER 6.0 600 AM 1/27 CT DOT
2 N SOUTH CANAAN 6.0 600 AM 1/27 CT DOT
COLEBROOK LAKE 5.5 700 AM 1/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
NORFOLK 4.9 800 AM 1/27 CO-OP OBSERVER

HARTFORD COUNTY...
SOUTH WINDSOR 15.0 825 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
MANCHESTER 14.8 806 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
SUFFIELD 14.2 601 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
ENFIELD 13.5 809 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
WETHERSFIELD 13.0 801 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
ROCKY HILL 12.5 544 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
EAST WINDSOR 12.0 813 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
WINDSOR LOCKS 12.0 700 AM 1/27 BR5ADLEY AIRPORT
BRISTOL 12.0 730 AM 1/27
AVON 9.5 614 AM 1/27
BURLINGTON 9.0 603 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
EAST FARMINGTON HEIG 9.0 554 AM 1/27 SPOTTER
NORTH GRANBY 6.5 700 AM 1/27
GRANBY 6.0 803 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO

...TOLLAND COUNTY...
STAFFORDVILLE 19.0 757 AM 1/27 CO-OP
STAFFORD 18.0 611 AM 1/27
TOLLAND 16.0 616 AM 1/27
ELLINGTON 13.0 807 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
VERNON 13.0 600 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
ELLLINGTON 13.0 607 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
SOMERS 8.5 411 AM 1/27 SPOTTER

...WINDHAM COUNTY...
MOOSUP 17.5 901 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
EAST KILLINGLY 16.5 640 AM 1/27
DANIELSON 15.0 903 AM 1/27 HAM RADIO
SCOTLAND 13.0 730 AM 1/27

1-26


10pm - reality
Snow started around 9:30 or so. Came down on and off all day, accumulated 2 inches this morning between 11 and 1. Then was light and didn't accumulate as the sun peaked through the clouds. Odd mix of mist/snow showed up around 6pm, then changed over to snow and came down heavy as a remnant thunderstorm which worked its way up the NJ coast, over NY, triggered special marine warnings, hit at 8:30. Two inches fell during the period of 8-10, with most between 8:30 and 9:30.

Other areas around NY Metro are mixing with sleet often, which may end up keeping their totals down. Areas around baltimore and dc have over 10 inches. DC has 160,000 people without power. Rain hit the Jersey coast until about 9:30 and continues out on LI.

NAM was awful for this storm - it and the arw and nmm completely missed the northern extent of the daytime snow. Knew once that happened that we were headed to at least 6" and the nws put up a winter storm warning too. Their call is 9-13 right now for Danbury. There is a lot of thunderstorms over the atlantic heading this way. If we got two more bands of 2 inches, we'll make the 9" total. But the backside approaches Scranton and it may end up pushing it out before we can get those two bands.


6:30am Trenton on south reporting snow - early dismissal from school
0z runs missed last nite
NMM = .25 qpf
ARW = .1 qpf
Euro = .5-.75qpf
SREF still has .5-1 with 1 at SE of NJTurnpike
GFS ens still have .5 - 1
6z runs
nam = .5
gfs = .25








Precip maps on the right
GFS 18z
Euro 12z
NAM 12z
CMC/GGEM 12z
JMA 12z

1-25 afternoon - ratios 12:1 or 10:1
NAM results today - all snow. 0z=8-12; 6z= 1-2", 12z=6-8" 18z=2-4"
GFS all snow 0z=6-8" (real sharp cutoff), 6z= 3-6" 12z= 4-6" 18z= 8-10"
Euro - all snow, barely at first 0z= 12-18" 12z=8-12"
CMC - 0z 6-8", 8-12" 18z RGEM over a foot
JMA - Foot
ARW and NMM - between 0 and 2" they bring the storm up to NJ then make a hard right as the High builds from the West
All tracks near the BM (except avn and nmm)

Really want the NAM to come on board, or the ARW or NMM before making a call. If you throw those out, its a 6-10" storm with a chance of 12-18"




1-25
0z Euro - 1.4 precip, all below freezing at 925 and 850. Surface temps at 33f, but north, ne wind makes that not look right. 980 low hits bm at hr 60
0z cmc - .5-.75, all below freezing surface and aloft. Odd looking elongated 990mb lp passing se the benchmark at hr54.
0z gfs ens passes 984 low just se of bm at hr 51, all snow
6z gfs only puts out .45, all snow
6z nam - .1 ots bizarre double low set up (see image at right)
ARW supports Euro, NMM supports NAM at hr 48. Would really like the nam to come back at 12z
03z sref has low over bm with over .5 precip











1-24 evening

Some maps of precip and 850 lines from the warmest time frame are above. From bottome to top: NAM precip (850 line unnecessary as its south of NYC), Euro precip and 850 line (with RH), 12z gfs precip and 850, 12z cmc precip and 850


0z Nam as now also fallen in line - but it looks fishy as two lows come up - I think its having difficulty placing the surface low with a strong upper low behind it. Looks like its trying to constantly reform the low, and thus keeps the low from really bombing. Its only 1000mb off the coast of NJ, then moves East south of the BM at 996mb. 850 temps and surface temps remain below freezing during the entire event for dxr as well as most of the nw suburbs. As noted below - once nam is on board, time to use short range models.

1-24 afternoon

GGEM gives at 12z, puts low off ACY and brings to BM. All globals on board with solution off coast to over BM. Precip around 1" with 850 temp at freezing for the warmest 3 hrs.
NAM is still OTS - by a lot.
Euro - 12z output is 1.13 for DXR - all of it below freezing at the 850, with .6 at the surface which is likely overdone - will have to look at winds when the graphic comes out.
GFS 12z output - all under freezing, .95 qpf

Based on consensus of global models - a 6" minimum snowfall should be coming with potential of 12" or greater. Once the NAM gets on board, will look at the shorter range models to narrow the range.

1-23

GGEM continues to drive the storm west. At this point, its lost all support, even its own ensembles are taking this off the coast.

GFS 0z looked ok with .5 precip as it headed east of BM, but the 6z and 12z runs brought nada as it was out to sea.
Euro was consistent in its hitting the BM or going just inside. The precip ranged from .75 at 0z to 1.75 at 12z - not a difference from track, but dynamics
UKMEt started off this morning just off the coast, this afternoons went a bit farther east.
Nam 84hr is out to sea, way out.

CMC ens, GFS ens (12z) and Euro Ens and Euro Op are all at the BM at some point. SREF is also making it there.

Conclusion: look for storm to go to benchmark, with marginal warmth along the coast bringing mix but snow inland. See if GFS and NAM agree on Monday.

1-22 -brief summary due to skiing and getting in late

0z Euro - direct hit, maybe just to the east of us. Lots of snow, over a foot, with over an inch of rain as well. 12z - brushes us with 3-6 inches.
0z CMC - takes low to coast, then inland over NC,VA then up the Del river. RGEM shows it hitting us though with a nice front end snow event.
12z is a more typical apps runner and goes right over us. Either way, lots of rain.
UKMET 0z goes from SC coast to 988 low just east of the BM. Can't tell with the time frames for the 12z - looks like it goes from inland NC to the BM
GFS - 0z and 6z drop northern branch to NC coast and goes out to sea. 12z takes gulf storm parallel to SCNC coast and keeps it going NE, missing us. 18z same as 12, but a little further west to begin, but still goes well east of CCod.
18z dgex puts 988 low right off nj, then moves it east off CCod, but with a sharp cutoff to the west of the precip so that NYC west gets nothing. 6z brings a 988 low to OBX, then right turns it out to sea.

conclusion - still too early. Like the position of the latest euro and gfs as they will probably shift west. Concerned with steadfastness of cmc this time, which usually flops around. Canadian ens are way east, with the cluster over the BM. Euro ens are to the east of the operational as well, but spread west.





Euro winds above, Euro precip below
GFS precip below





1-21

CMC puts down 2" of precip, but takes low over Del river or Hudson river depending on the run. Pressure falls to 972 - 859 winds over 70kts
UKMEt is set up to follow the CMC
Euro is further east, running over Richmond, then out to off the NJ coast and inside the BM. Its putting out over 2.5" and up to 3 in some places. Most widespread winter precip map I've ever seen. Pressure down to 984, but winds up to 70kt hitting LI. Widespread 40kt winds interior. Euro runs today put Dxr on the snow side of the border, but barely. Its surface temps are 1c but the rest of the thermal profile is under 0c.
GFS is off the coast, and not deepening - winds up to 40kts.
DGEX - out to sea, then 18z brings a 984 up over Chesapeke and then turns it out ene, brushing dxr, but hammering NJ.
JMA is a complete miss ots
Euro ens are slightly east of operational, but with a western spread
- would keep us snow,
GFS ens are close to the operational, perhaps a bit west.
Timing varies - GFS is on Tuesday, the rest are Tues nite into Wed into Thurs.
No call yet - but I think its safe to say something interesting is going to happen.

1-20

Euro 0z has it tracking up from obx to ack, but its a warm storm. dxr right on the r/s line with 850 temps at 0 and thickness at 540. 12z much colder, but less dynamic - low right into New Haven, but thickness lines running right through low. Looks like we dryslot on that one. But the precip stretches over three days on the print out with .85 output and temps real cold.

dgex - ots
gfs 0z has LP going ots, but inverted trough hitting PHL 12z snow makes it to richmond, but hr 180 is brewing a monster.

cmc - runs it further west from obx to pvd. But its colder aloft. 12z run misses completely, snow only as far north as BWI.

ukmet has nothing
JMA 990 low over Monticello on the 27th, with almost 2" of precip = rain from the catskills east.

1-19

Euro 0z has storm coming up from the south, headed right over nyc at 1000mb. R/s line near us, then moving north, so good front end situation, but also looks to be wet after the transition, then back to frozen. Thickness lines up N/S along the hudson river in the main part of the storm.

Euro 12z - way warmer.

GFS - -0z has southern slider, goes off OBX and never comes back
12z - hits us pretty hard, low over BM. But like the 20th storm, doesn't produce a lot of qpf, only .5 for now.

JMA slides off NC
0z CMC runs it up the Del River. 12z loses it
Dgex 6 and 18z slide it off south.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Next up - 21st or 24th


1-20


We will get snow - its how much. Here are the qpfs

NAM 0z= .1-.25; 6z = .25-.5 12z= .5-.75 (with .75 NE of the river) actual .6

GFS all runs .25-.5 12z=.37

NMM 0z= .1 12z=.5 12z= .5 - .75 (but real close to.75)

ARW 0z=.1 12x= .25 - .5 (but real close to .5)

CMC 0z= .25-.5

Euro 0z= .25-.5 12z= .37


Looking at the 850 temps - All models have it around-8, but the gfs and nam warm it to -5.8, which indicates some coastal air getting mixed in. 528 thickness lines are right over dxr - these combined with high verticals at 700mb should cause 20:1 or greater snow ratios. Based on these factors, I am upping from 3-6 to 5-8 inches. Timing - begins around 1am, lasts through the commute with the heaviest from 6-8 am. Could be inch/hour rates then.




1-19
GFS, GGEM, EURO, UKMET all have storm at or inside BM. Euro is down to .2 qpf at 12z, gfs at .24, NAm is .32. Nam has shifted south - arw and nmm seem to be supporting that. GGEM also has .25 - .5 output. SREF has also trended south, but still hits the bm. GFS ens hits bm, Euro ens hit bm, all with spread to the west. Tracks are very similar and are in the prime spot for a major snowstorm, but the precip amounts just aren't that impressive. JMA is in and weaker than yesterday as well. There seems to be some energy escaping at the 500mb level, trailing sw, along with a shortwave progged to move S? Odd, to me at least.

Call: 4-6 inches. We should be around the arctic boundary and 850 temps should be around -8 or even colder. So using 20:1 ratios - Euro is 4", Nam is 6".





1-18
NAM, GGEM, Nogaps, UKMET, JMA all lined up at 0z and 12z for major northeast storm. GFS showing more of a nuisance storm. Euro also showing 2-5 inch range. GFS and Euro don't have storm phasing, slowing down, but they do have it all snow and passing near the BM. Storm track this time not up the coast, but across the Ohio valley and off NJ where the prior set of models bomb it and the latter just take it out over the BM. 12z euro out and has .19 of precip. 12z GFS is .23. NAM is .91

0z NAM lost it. Gone. Under .25 precip. Not sure why, its still a good track. SREF and GFS ens also still have this hitting the BM. See above





1-15 -
0z Euro backs off 21st, focuses on 24
0z cmc scoots one storm off on the 22nd, weak storm hits on the 25th
0z gfs has storm on 21st, just to our south, with the 24th developing way ots.
12z Euro compromises - nothing on the 21st or 24th, but overnite the 22nd into 23rd
12z cmc brings back the 21st, brushing us. nothing on the 24th
12z gfs brings us some on late 21st. nothing on the 24th.
6z dgex has both :)



1-14 - models saying second round coming thurs/fri.

Monday, January 10, 2011

Jan 19th next?

1-18 reality. No school. At least 2 inches of snow, followed by 6hrs of sleet and a few hrs of freezing rain.

1-17 - late day skiing - problem is temps were 10deg higher than forecast overnite. Todays high though was 22. At 9pm, its 21, so not much dropoff. Getting to 32 from 21 with a se wind is fairly easy. Complicating that is a dew point of 5, so the precip approaching in S NJ now, should lower the temp more. Further complicating is that the LP is forecast to be a bit stronger and further east, just inside BM, which should change the surface winds to ne and n and keep the remaining cold air in. There is a decent probability that we end up with 6 inches before it changes to freezing rain. I do think surface temps make it to 34 on Tuesday, later in the afternoon, but by then the precip is mostly over. It looks like the precip is already early as it is. My concern with WAA events always is that the precip arrives early and the temps rise late. Prediction is 3-6, maybe even 8 if the precip gets in early enough, with 4- 6hrs of freezing rain

1-16 Wintry mix still expected, with possible front loaded frozen N and NW of NYC

Solutions trending colder at 12z
Euro 0z 850 line is further south, at it highest in vt, than the 12z yesterday. Todays 12z run maxes out the 850 temp over dxr at 1.6. Surface temps still way high for euro, probably due to its insistance on se winds compared to other models. Track looks like obx to ack on the 12z run today. This is shifted east. It also doesn't develop the coastal as much or as fast as the gfs

CMC -both runs drive the low up the coast right over us, which explains its warmth

0z ukmet brings coastal inside obx to inside bm. pushes 850 line into mass. 12 z can't figure out if it wants the clipper or the coastal to win and blasts warm air north.

GFS - 12z run does pump 850 temps over 5 at 0z wed, with surface temps staying under 35. Over .5 of its .91 will fall with surface temps under 32. Its storm track is from inside obx to inside ack. Weak, 1004 area of LP. Over an inch qpf, but more over eastern mass.
6z run has 1004 lp at inside delmarva going to 996 over cape cod bay. Over 1" qpf
0z has over an inch of liquid - inland low dominant, 1004, until a 1004 low forms just s of LI. This means south/east winds, warmer.

Nam - 0z nam forms low well off coast and that doesn't dominate until it reaches here, bringing warmer winds. Drier with only .5 precip
6 z develops low inland in VA, much quicker dev and coastal dominates, should be colder at surface. Bulk of precip to our west? NJ gets 1.75, we get 1.
12z - surface temps make it to 33. 850 goes to 4.2 but only after it stops preciping - supports front end frozen. Drier again, bulk of precip to the east, only .5 falling in dxr. Interesting that it keeps the two storms separate, with the coastal developing, moving out and then the inland instead of moving ne, moves e over our area bringing rain.











1-15

GFS in each run has shifted east and colder, with more energy in the coastal than the primary. Latest 18z run shows it barely making it above freezing at the surface in DXR, and not making it above freezing for two weeks at POU. This looks like a classic front loaded cold storm. Question is whether its snow, sleet or freezing rain.

NAM is way warm, with nearly all precip falling as rain as surface temps stay around 35 and 850 temps go above 5c

Euro 12z has much of the precip falling aloft as frozen, but its surface temps are way too warm. Note this morning it was off by over 10F. Its also drier with .54 falling, with .15 as frozen. Its 0z run brings L through PA to coast, then north. 12z goes up west, with only a weak surface reflection.

With accupro models having issues, the ukmet only goes to 72, looks similar to gfs and colder.

12 cmc has the 850 line all the way into canada, despite taking the low from obx to BM. This is opposite of the 0z which had the low right over us, but the 850 line in only as far n as the ma/vt border

1-14 Still questions on this storm

GFS for last few days has been sending the storm to the lakes, with a warm front extending over us bringing warm air advection snow and changing it to rain, or more likely, drizzle. While it has a surface reflection low, it doesn't do much with it. The 6z run today actually keeps the temps right around freezing aloft and at the surface and the concern with that would be that its underdoing the aloft temps and overdoing the surface, leading to an icing situation. Total qpf under .5 for most of the runs. This solution is least likely, but most favorable since it limits the precip.

Euro has been bullish on the northern storm transferring to a coastal. Yesterdays 12 run brought the low from inside Cape Hatteras up through Rhode Island at 984mb. Normally, this is a monster snowstorm for Western CT and the Hudson Valley, NNJ and rain NYC east and along the shore. This solution too would have front end snow and back end snow, but wouldn't dry slot like the gfs, and its QPF is 1.5 inches, which is enough to cause some problems. The 0z run today still has the northern branch going through the lakes, like the gfs. But it brings a lot of moisture up from GA and the GOM and forms the Low in NC and brings it up the coastal plain right over NYC at 1000mb - so its weaker as it doesn't phase until northern new england. Still has front snow, but less on the backside. Temps would be near 40 both aloft and the surface. Precip is further west, with E PA getting the bulk, and its less, 1.5 with 1 inch by us. I think its moving to the GFS solution and will pull a bit further west this afternoon.

Other models:
UKMET - two systems, one goes to the south, one to the north
DGEX 6z has no real organized system. most of the energy to our south. Yesterdays 18z run was similar to the euro in that a coastal plain storm forms going just to our SE and bringing a lot of rain.
0z CMC has a central APPs runner with some front end snow, but mostly rain. Similar to Euro with 2 inches over PA, but 1.5 in our area. Yesterdays 12z run had a look similar to todays GFS - but stronger southern low, sliding south of us, bringing almost all snow.



1-12

Wide range of solutions for this event.
0z euro cold and out to sea, 12 z had major storm hitting, OBX to ACK, but had temp issues with DXR on the 0 line at 850.
Long range cmc was out to sea
DGEX 6z had the main low going obx to ack, but was even warmer than euro
0z gfs had split north and south branch storms, one going north of us bringing the warmth up and the southern going south of us, looking like a fropa. 6z ditto. 12z is really odd and will ignore.


Watching the gfs around the 19th - its 228 hrs out, but showing storm in the area.
Euro is more surpressed, for now, and has a fropa instead, with temps warming prior, bringing some rain? Looks odd.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Jan 12-13

Results - 24 inches in Danbury, officially, but most of my measurements maxed at 20, with some at 17 and 15. Newtown had 29, N Fairfield 28, Ridgefield 26. Woodbury 29. North Haven coming in at 29.5, and still snowing, likely breaks 30 inches.




1-11 - no

No changes to below, despite some models going nuts. NAM went nuts with over 2 inches qpf in central ct, with danbury getting 1.5-1.75. However, that just can't be as there doesn't seem to be that much moisture. As of this evening, snow is about to move in, dc barely got a few inches. Baltimore a little better. One thing of note is that the LP was located by me on satellite and using the winds at the nc buoys through the day, and it was not far, perhaps 20 miles off the coast. However, the mets were saying it was 130 miles se of obx. Later, at least Mt Holly and Albany admitted the low was actually right on the coast, and way west of what the gfs, euro and ukmet had. It verified the Nam, which is frightening. The RGEM came with the low hitting central long island. The NNM and AVR are major hits as well. So it became the GFS, UKMET and Nogaps v the others. Euro split the diff, which is what my forecast is based on 8-12 inches for DXR (closer to 12" and possibly more), 6-8 for N Jersey, 8-10 for NYC 12-18 Waterbury to Hartford. I am, if the low is on the coast, worried about mixing at the coast, which will cut down the amounts.


1-10
0z NAM still on it with 1.15 QPF in the 0z run - likely a 15:1 ratio (temps a little warmer than gfs and euro) should be about 16-18 inches. Takes a 1004 low at 6z wed, to 990 at 12z, over ACK and the cape as a 98o low.

I also added some timing down to show its a progressive storm, no stalling and rapidly deepening from 1004 to as low as 980 in 12 hrs. Challenge remains - is it slower to evolve and barely further east?

1-10 - Sticking with 8-12, with possibly over 12 -16 inches. GFS now in that range, NAM seems overdone. Big fear is too much moisture/energy escapes southern system ots by the time the northern system arrives to re-energize. Will also note that the majority of precip on the Euro falls with the the 850 temps right around -7.5 to -9.8 - making it a high ratio. Based on the Euro alone, its a 16 inch storm. GFS, CMC, NAM, EURO, JMA are all at or inside the BM, which with cold air present, is the historic marker for a major snowstorm.

0z eur o - .87
12z nam - 1.2
0z cmc .25
0z ngaps - ots
ukmet - ots
6z gfs .49
12z gfs .71 - hits BM as 996 low, doesn't deepen fast
12z ukmet - ots, but still throws back some, probably 4-6
12z euro .81 1004 6z wed, 988 12z wed to 984 just NE of ACK by 18z
12z cmc .25 - hits BM as 996 low, so doesn't deepen as fast, and goes well east of CCOD, but the experimental graphic hits at 991, just to the nw of bm.
12z jma - .75-1
Suny MM5 has it going from a 1006 Low, 6z on Wed to 994 by 12z passing inside the BM as a 986 low







1-9
1z Euro came in with a big storm, over 1" qpf for nyc area, meaning 12-18 inches, easily.
18z Nam and gfs really aren't doing much with the storm, keeping it very weak. see above




12z nam above

1-9 0z Euro has .81 for a 8-12 inch storm
0z nam .5, 6z.nam .5-.7; 12z nam explodes the storm right over us with huge dynamics aloft. 1.5 -1.75 here with bullseye over new haven for 1.75-2
0z gfs .5; 6z gfs a bit further east and weaker, still with .5; 12z gfs is more dynamic, closer t0 .75, with much more wind
jma put low east, with .5
UKMET - can't tell exactly what happens between 72 and 96, but it looks like its heading to phase right over us, or just a little late
GEM - looks a more east and weaker than previous runs with only .25
Nogaps, which had consistently hit us, is now out to sea
Euro ens agree with coastal storm
6z gfsens take it over the bm,with spread to the ne, but not as much as before, and this is east of the 0z ens by a little.
CMC ens seem to cluster evenly around the bm









1-8 0z runs this morning all had a storm hitting, in one shape or another.
0z gfs has .5-.7 inches, 6 z closer to .5
0z euro has .8 inches over bm
Dgex had 1.7 inches inside bm
UKMET doesn't have precip, but comes close
CMC has up top .5 - takes it over bm - backed down on precip though
NAM is almost in range and looking good at 84hr
Nogaps has had the storm for 8 runs now.
JMA hits, but with only .5- .75 snow
GFS Ens have the low inside the bm, with spread to the west (rain?)
EUro ens have a coastal hugger
SREF ens have double barrel (as to many of the others) with the coastal being right on the coast





1-5 - most afternoon models surpess the storm, but not by much. Morning euro out to sea, but afternoon came in just east of BM. Ukmet doesn't go out far enough, but looks like its heading ots. GGEM, posted above, nails us. Dgex in the morn and afternoon just misses, but gives us snow. 0z gfs goes out off SC, 6z is direct hit, 12z heads ne after obx, 18z goes just east of BM


1-4 -
Still looking good for this storm. 0z Euro and cmc have weaker systems moving through quickly, but still bringing snow. 12 and 18z gfs puts 992 low just off nj and south of li. 6z is out to sea. Dgex goes nuts. JMA has .5qpf , but more north than the others. 12z euro just misses south






1-3 This is a little far out, but a nice looking storm has popped up for the middle of next week.

Jan 6-8

Results: 9 inches in danbury, 15 inches in Southbury, 12 in N Fairfield. I 84 closed from exits 11 into Putnam Cty. NYC had 1.7 inches, parts of NJ had 4-6 and LI had rain.



1/5 - This is impossible to predict. Norlon Trough http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf
Basically, the GFS is showing 2-4 inches, Euro from 6 inches at 0z to 2-4 at 12z. Nam pic is above. Higher resolution models will be better able to predict, but the nam is warmer and has way more precip. So as you can see from the pic, its a 50 mile wide swath of snow, which every run on every model, changes position. But theres always something there, and almost everyone gets at least an inch.










1/4 - Everything remains discombobulated. Multiple lows everywhere. NAM is on board with the inverted trough, somewhere between phl and RI. Most recent runs have us getting at least 6 inches. GFS has same location, but lesser amt - 3-6 Euro still puts in .3 qpf for Danbury area. Still most likely 3-6 with chance for 6-8, worth watching.




1/3 - 0z Euro caught my attention this morning. Complex system coming through, primarily northern stream, over next weekend. Euro ends up stacking the lows and 976 pressures just off the coast of NJ, stalling for 24 hrs. The precip output for danbury was 1.7 qpf, however, the temps at the surface were just above freezing.


GFS and other models also hinting at a storm, but not developing it until its further out to sea, or further north.


12z Euro just in and it has the precip down to a more reasonable 6 inch storm.


Call for now, based on GFS, Euro combo is for a 3-6 inch storm around Saturday.