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Saturday, January 15, 2011

Next up - 21st or 24th


We will get snow - its how much. Here are the qpfs

NAM 0z= .1-.25; 6z = .25-.5 12z= .5-.75 (with .75 NE of the river) actual .6

GFS all runs .25-.5 12z=.37

NMM 0z= .1 12z=.5 12z= .5 - .75 (but real close to.75)

ARW 0z=.1 12x= .25 - .5 (but real close to .5)

CMC 0z= .25-.5

Euro 0z= .25-.5 12z= .37

Looking at the 850 temps - All models have it around-8, but the gfs and nam warm it to -5.8, which indicates some coastal air getting mixed in. 528 thickness lines are right over dxr - these combined with high verticals at 700mb should cause 20:1 or greater snow ratios. Based on these factors, I am upping from 3-6 to 5-8 inches. Timing - begins around 1am, lasts through the commute with the heaviest from 6-8 am. Could be inch/hour rates then.

GFS, GGEM, EURO, UKMET all have storm at or inside BM. Euro is down to .2 qpf at 12z, gfs at .24, NAm is .32. Nam has shifted south - arw and nmm seem to be supporting that. GGEM also has .25 - .5 output. SREF has also trended south, but still hits the bm. GFS ens hits bm, Euro ens hit bm, all with spread to the west. Tracks are very similar and are in the prime spot for a major snowstorm, but the precip amounts just aren't that impressive. JMA is in and weaker than yesterday as well. There seems to be some energy escaping at the 500mb level, trailing sw, along with a shortwave progged to move S? Odd, to me at least.

Call: 4-6 inches. We should be around the arctic boundary and 850 temps should be around -8 or even colder. So using 20:1 ratios - Euro is 4", Nam is 6".

NAM, GGEM, Nogaps, UKMET, JMA all lined up at 0z and 12z for major northeast storm. GFS showing more of a nuisance storm. Euro also showing 2-5 inch range. GFS and Euro don't have storm phasing, slowing down, but they do have it all snow and passing near the BM. Storm track this time not up the coast, but across the Ohio valley and off NJ where the prior set of models bomb it and the latter just take it out over the BM. 12z euro out and has .19 of precip. 12z GFS is .23. NAM is .91

0z NAM lost it. Gone. Under .25 precip. Not sure why, its still a good track. SREF and GFS ens also still have this hitting the BM. See above

1-15 -
0z Euro backs off 21st, focuses on 24
0z cmc scoots one storm off on the 22nd, weak storm hits on the 25th
0z gfs has storm on 21st, just to our south, with the 24th developing way ots.
12z Euro compromises - nothing on the 21st or 24th, but overnite the 22nd into 23rd
12z cmc brings back the 21st, brushing us. nothing on the 24th
12z gfs brings us some on late 21st. nothing on the 24th.
6z dgex has both :)

1-14 - models saying second round coming thurs/fri.

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