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Thursday, January 26, 2017

2-5

2-6  Got snow showers yesterday

2-2 Euro backed off yesterdays changes. Only model which is interesting now is the NAM which takes the energy to SC.  Still going to follow this until the energy hits shore on Saturday, but may not update posts unless something dramatic changes.

2-1  Euro has some changes, which should be more favorable than what's showing up on the surface.  So not writing this off yet.   Note ridging out west. 


0z 2-1


12z 1-31


1-31  Euro still not on board after getting close on yesterdays 12z run.  Meanwhile the GFS has lost it as well. UKMET showing nothing.  DGEX even nothing. 




1/30  Euro not cooperating.  Last two days showing a slider.  Meanwhile, the GFS, CMC, JMA all show a decent storm.  NAVGEM which is usually the furthest east, is similar as well, leaving the Euro an outlier. 

0z NAVGEM
12z 1-29 JMA

0z CMC

6z gfs


Loading Maps...
0z Euro



1-26   There is some chance of light snow the 30th to 2nd with passing clippers.  The bigger chance comes around the 5th to 6th time frame as a storm travels across the country.  Some runs are showing a cutter through the lakes, some an app runner.  These two are similar - yesterdays eps and todays 12z gfs. R/S line likely i80 north.


Early thoughts are either this solution or a cutter.  Watching the high overhead.  But its still over 10 days out. 



Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Jan 27-30 (and some on the 23rd)

1-22  Complicated system for tomorrow, with models all over.  There is no real cold air, though some seasonal air is moving down New England.  Thats enough to bring the surface to 850 layer below freezing for far west NJ and North of the Merrit.  So we could see a 3-6 hr period of sleet, but the precip amt forecasts are all wacky.  Also during that time frame, there isn't that much precip.    Winds will be the worst part - these gusts are in kts, so multiple by 1.15.  Yes that is 60-70kts over the ocean.
NAM Winds
GFS winds


12z Euro printout
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z JAN22
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    TOTAL    500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN 12Z 22-JAN   4.7     6.5    1007      99      46    0.00     555     550    
SUN 18Z 22-JAN   9.0     5.2    1007      85      55    0.01     555     549    
MON 00Z 23-JAN   6.8     4.9    1009      87      75    0.05     554     547    
MON 06Z 23-JAN   4.1     2.7    1011      86      70    0.05     554     545    
MON 12Z 23-JAN   3.1     2.1    1012      78      70    0.05     555     545    
MON 18Z 23-JAN   2.9     0.9    1009      71      78    0.05     555     547    
TUE 00Z 24-JAN   1.4    -0.7    1007      96      98    0.15     553     547    
TUE 06Z 24-JAN   1.9     0.0    1000      97      90    0.69     549     549    
TUE 12Z 24-JAN   3.4     5.1     997      90      95    0.85     548     551    
TUE 18Z 24-JAN   3.6     6.9     995      81      92    0.88     547     551    
WED 00Z 25-JAN   0.7     5.6     999      92      94    0.99     548     549    
WED 06Z 25-JAN   1.4     4.2    1001      80      84    1.03     549     548    

Which is different from the 0z

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            00Z JAN22
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    TOTAL    500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN 00Z 22-JAN   6.4     4.8    1009      94      14             562     554    
SUN 06Z 22-JAN   4.5     5.7    1008      99      18    0.00     558     551    
SUN 12Z 22-JAN   4.7     6.0    1007      99      60    0.00     555     549    
SUN 18Z 22-JAN   8.5     5.3    1007      86      64    0.00     555     549    
MON 00Z 23-JAN   6.6     5.3    1009      86      67    0.00     555     547    
MON 06Z 23-JAN   3.6     2.4    1012      84      68    0.00     555     545    
MON 12Z 23-JAN   2.5     2.9    1011      80      82    0.01     555     547    
MON 18Z 23-JAN   2.9     0.0    1006      73      84    0.02     554     549    
TUE 00Z 24-JAN   2.0     1.1    1004      94      98    0.14     551     548    
TUE 06Z 24-JAN   2.2     1.7     997      98      98    0.81     547     549    
TUE 12Z 24-JAN   3.3     7.3     993      95      98    1.13     545     551    
TUE 18Z 24-JAN   4.0     6.0     992      95      53    1.39     541     548    
WED 00Z 25-JAN   1.5     1.4     998      92      82    1.47     541     543    
WED 06Z 25-JAN   1.1     0.9    1001      78      77    1.49     545     544 
 
vs the GFS
 
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z JAN22   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    TOTAL    500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN 12Z 22-JAN   3.0     6.1    1007      98      45             556     550    
SUN 18Z 22-JAN   9.9     4.9    1008      86      57    0.00     555     549    
MON 00Z 23-JAN   6.2     4.3    1010      91      70    0.02     554     547    
MON 06Z 23-JAN   4.7     0.5    1012      88      80    0.02     554     545    
MON 12Z 23-JAN   2.9     2.0    1012      84      95    0.03     555     545    
MON 18Z 23-JAN   3.4     2.2    1011      75      81    0.04     555     547    
TUE 00Z 24-JAN   2.0    -0.9    1007      87      85    0.12     554     548    
TUE 06Z 24-JAN   4.0     1.7     999      93      96    0.47     549     551    
TUE 12Z 24-JAN   4.7     4.5     996      94      93    0.77     547     550    
TUE 18Z 24-JAN   5.4     4.8     996      93      81    0.78     546     549    
WED 00Z 25-JAN   3.1     5.3    1000      91      99    0.81     549     549     
 
VS the colder 18z with less precip (.65 now)
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            18Z JAN22   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN 18Z 22-JAN   9.6     5.1    1007      88      56             555     549    
MON 00Z 23-JAN   6.3     4.8    1009      90      74    0.01     554     546    
MON 06Z 23-JAN   4.8     0.9    1011      87      69    0.01     554     545    
MON 12Z 23-JAN   2.9     2.1    1012      84      98    0.01     555     546    
MON 18Z 23-JAN   3.2    -1.0    1010      78      92    0.01     554     545    
TUE 00Z 24-JAN   2.2    -3.3    1006      88      91    0.06     552     547    
TUE 06Z 24-JAN   4.2     2.6     998      92      99    0.33     549     551    
TUE 12Z 24-JAN   4.1     4.6     996      92      95    0.19     546     550    
TUE 18Z 24-JAN   4.4     4.7     996      92      99    0.03     545     549    
WED 00Z 25-JAN   3.0     3.7     999      90      84    0.04     546     547    

Lastly the NAM wih 1.21

NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                             1P JAN22
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN  1P 22-JAN  10.9     5.3    1007      86      54             554     549    
SUN  7P 22-JAN   7.7     4.6    1008      86      57    0.01     554     547    
MON  1A 23-JAN   4.2     3.1    1010      90      63    0.01     554     545    
MON  7A 23-JAN   2.3     1.5    1012      89      79    0.00     554     545    
MON  1P 23-JAN   1.7     2.8    1010      84      85    0.01     555     547    
MON  7P 23-JAN   1.4     0.6    1007      88      97    0.22     553     548    
TUE  1A 24-JAN   1.4     1.6    1000      87      98    0.39     550     550    
TUE  7A 24-JAN   1.6     2.8     998      89      92    0.47     547     549    
TUE  1P 24-JAN   2.3     7.3     998      89      94    0.05     549     551    
TUE  7P 24-JAN   1.3     6.9    1002      88      94    0.08     551     549    


@############$@#$@#$@#$@#$@#$@#$@#$@#$@#$@#$@#$@#$@#$@###############

1-20  This time frame remains fairly unremarkable today and yesterday.  Still some hints of a storm popping off the coast, as well as some light snow disturbances, but the cold air charge seems to suppress the storms for the most part.   Meanwhile on the 23rd-24th we have what should have been the pattern changing storm and its a doozy.  979 LP on the NAM over the SE, but mostly rain in our area with some change to wet snow later to our N and in higher elevations. No real major accumulations right now, but trend is colder. 

1-18  Long range models have had a change of air mass pegged for this time period, preceded with a big "warmer" storm.  Time to take a closer look now that we're ten days out.

12z Euro
6z GFS para
0z gfs para
12z gfs
18z gfs
GFS ens


So the Euro is a Miller A, big storm coming up from the Gulf.  The GFS has a cutter on the 25th to 27th which leads to a clipper or Miller B as portrayed above.   Prior to today's runs, the Euro and GFS had all kinds of kooky solutions with storms going northwest, swirling around, stalling.  It looked really odd.  Today its straightening out.  Some of the storms going through the lakes are coming east.   I like the Euro run better than the gfs, though the ensemble doesn't support the idea of a Miller A.



Monday, January 9, 2017

Jan 15-16

1-14 -
 Ended up with an inch!


Afternoon Smells and feels like snow.  Could get a dusting based on radar but the HRRR has it all heading SE and missing


1-12  Euro still has very little north of PHL.  GFS as well.  NAM is further north, which is usual.  GFS Parallel is similar to the NAM which is odd.  UKMET is just rolling in.  CMC is still south of the area, but north of where the previous run was.







1-11   Euro showing the front sagging to VA and the waves moving along there. The EPS spreads some precip our way, but not enough to cover the ground again.  Long range EPS has no snow through the 28th.

GFS 0z and 6z shows similar to Euro - waves moving south of the R/S line over VA with a bit of precip nicking the tristate.  No other snow through the 27th. 

Canadian shows no snow through 10 days.

GFS para is the only model with snow for us.  JMA does hint at it.


1-9  This mornings low was around -4.  Coldest of the year. For this week coming up, we have a warm front coming through which may provide some snow or ice, but not a lot.  We have a Great Lakes cutter providing that warm front, followed by a clipper that meets some energy from the south and heads up west of NY which provides another warm front, then a cold front after it passes.  That cold front hangs and where that happens determines what happens next as waves progress along the front.

Canadian showing a moderate snow event.  Precip map shows what has fallen prior to the 850 temp map below it.  So for most of the tristate north of Trenton we should see 2-4 inches of snow.

Euro operational is a tad warmer, but heavier precip, so roughly the same result, perhaps closer to 4".  Surface temps are near or below freezing during this time.  Euro ensembles are a bit colder and drier.

GFS is colder and drier with the front a bit south