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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

First plowable snow

11-26 0z run of euro at 232 does show snow on the ground for 12/5. Looks like a waa event, again.
6z gfs shows the same storm sliding south of us, then getting blocked out at sea and coming west, to give us up to 10" on the 6th, but I gotta say that looks weird. The first plowable snow is on the 9th-10th. Looks major and more likely than the prior solution. 0z shows the storm on the 5th sliding under us and out to sea, but does give us measurable snow. My guess is that becomes a cutter to the lakes.

12z Euro took weak low out under us on 12/5, missing us. 12z and 18z runs of gfs show weak low, but giving us a few inches. Then, the storm loops and comes sw from maine bringing more, but not much.

11-23 the side caption still has a map similar to today's gfs for 12/2 - 12/3 as being the first real covering of snow. But plowable (over 2") snow has not shown up yet as the pattern is going from trough to ridge, cold to warm and back again. Eventually we will get to a point where it is a warm advection snow set up, but until then its kinda dull. Although the mets are getting real excited for December.

There is a hint of a storm on the 5th, and again on the 8th which may bring snow, but its not showing up on the snow map.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Thanksgiving

11/26 - Thanksgiving result - snow sleet and rain fell - temps started at 42 and dropped to 37 on way to NJ. But there was definitely snow while we were in westchester, despite the airport not reporting it. West of Roseland reported grounds being covered and up to 3" in E PA.

11/23 - A tongue of subzero at 850 exists for thursday over PA, NJ, NY and W CT. If the precip arrives early, it could be as snow as temps are to be in the lower 20's the night before. More likely, and not discussed, is that the tongue appearing is more from evaporational cooling, so will likely take place as the precip is drying out.

11/19 - as of 7 days out, the storm originally going to our south and out to sea, is now cutting to the lakes. Should have a cold rain for Thanksgiving.

The Euro has actually gone more towards a weak low coming through wed night, just to our west, and then a double barrel low, one in the lakes, the other through the TN valley for Thurs-Fri. It just keeps the cold air at bay.

GFS 0z has a very weak front runner like the Euro, but it never makes it here. Instead it evolves into a single low going from W. PA to Northern New England.

Future- GFS has it staying cold. Euro hints at a warm up.

The snow on the map for 11/20 just came through now, a few flurries, but mostly cold rain in the form of lake effect.




Its ten days out, but the GFS is putting down a blanket of snow on Thanksgiving day. Euro is close as well. Whether is snows or rains, its going to be ugly. This is has been consistent for a few days.
Will have to look at 7 days out again.

Monday, November 8, 2010

First snow (non accum)

Danbury had its first snow - fell as mix of snow, sleet and rain this morning, Nov 8. Also had wind gust of 28mph during the day. Sleet and snow accumulated on grassy surfaces, along with roofs, cars, patio and patio furniture. Police reported 161 accidents across CT as a result of the wintry weather. Snow came down heavy when I left for Philly around 10am, lightened up around Katonah, but continued on and off even as I crossed the GW bridge.

And with that, the winter blog starts

I don't expect another snow event til around Thanksgiving week, which may have our first 1" accum. I am thinking more along the line of the Dec7-10 for the first plowable snow in excess of 1"

Also of interest, we had our first frost on Nov 1, but it wasn't a killer frost. That happened the next night as temps were in the 20's. It is the latest I could find for Danbury getting below 32.