11/26 - Thanksgiving result - snow sleet and rain fell - temps started at 42 and dropped to 37 on way to NJ. But there was definitely snow while we were in westchester, despite the airport not reporting it. West of Roseland reported grounds being covered and up to 3" in E PA.
11/23 - A tongue of subzero at 850 exists for thursday over PA, NJ, NY and W CT. If the precip arrives early, it could be as snow as temps are to be in the lower 20's the night before. More likely, and not discussed, is that the tongue appearing is more from evaporational cooling, so will likely take place as the precip is drying out.
11/19 - as of 7 days out, the storm originally going to our south and out to sea, is now cutting to the lakes. Should have a cold rain for Thanksgiving.
The Euro has actually gone more towards a weak low coming through wed night, just to our west, and then a double barrel low, one in the lakes, the other through the TN valley for Thurs-Fri. It just keeps the cold air at bay.
GFS 0z has a very weak front runner like the Euro, but it never makes it here. Instead it evolves into a single low going from W. PA to Northern New England.
Future- GFS has it staying cold. Euro hints at a warm up.
The snow on the map for 11/20 just came through now, a few flurries, but mostly cold rain in the form of lake effect.
Its ten days out, but the GFS is putting down a blanket of snow on Thanksgiving day. Euro is close as well. Whether is snows or rains, its going to be ugly. This is has been consistent for a few days.
Will have to look at 7 days out again.