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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Noise in the Carribean

5-25 -Beryl named 11pm. Very odd track, particularly on Euro, where it heads southwest into and across FL, into Gulf, then turns around back NE right along the coast up to OBX before it heads out.

5-23 GFS and NAM have that Caribbean impulse forming a tropical low off the SE coast and pulling back into Fl. Euro still shows impulse but no formation. GFS still has another one going up the coast and out to sea around the June 1/2 time frame. Two storms in May off the US is unheard of. NHC not on this one yet, but Henry posted an alert. http://ow.ly/b68MJ . JB is on it as well, actually got on it yesterday too.http://t.co/vJytff7o. Evening: NHc puts out circle of concern, finally. But put chances at near zero.

5-22 GFS and Euro making some noise out of the garbage forming in the W. Caribbean for later this week. GFS brings an impulse out into the W Atlantic over the weekend, but then heads it west into FL. Euro forms a 1008 low, but it dissipates. GFS brings another impulse up a front, which needs to be watched as well, but it looks more barometrically formed than tropically formed.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Early trop storm?


5/19 - Alberto forms right off the coast today

5/16

Euro still has disorganized low pressures over the gulfsteam from 5/18-5/22, with some consolidation over nyc on the 22nd. GFS 0z has nothing. 6z run has a disorganized 1012 low spinning off a front to the nw of Bermuda. Nogaps is similar to euro with disorganized, but low pressures, consolidating on the 22nd but off the delmarva. Ukmet has a 1010 low spinning over the gulfstream at 35N from the 19th to 21st. JMA forms a 1010 off the OBX on the 22nd and shows that the impulses are coming up from the gulf and tropics that are forming this.


5/14

GFS still has on the 24th. Euro doesn't, but leaves a lot of energy for the fronts to spin up a storm. Just to clarify yesterdays statement - storm would be off the coast.


5/13

Keeping eye on SE coast for the 22-26th. Looked more impressive this mornings Euro, but still a weak trop storm on the 12z.