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Friday, February 26, 2010

March 3- 4th storm

3-4 -results: 2 inches, which did not last. only .2 in liquid. Snow coatings both on thurs and fri following from same storm.





3-2 GFS leading the charge north


Nam is bopping around, GFS now has CT in the .5-.75 range for precip. Question is how much is rain and how much is snow. With temps in the 40's - unless it falls at night and the ground gets cold enough, the only accumulation may be on grassy surfaces and existing snow.




BTW - our 7 inches from Friday's storm melted yesterday


3-1 - all models have the storm going well offshore. Question is how much moisture gets back.
Eur0 has 93/87 (850/700mb) RH Wed morn. GFS has the same and puts out an inch of snow, but with "warm" temps around 32, might be hard to stick. NAM has no output and lower RH

So for now, no big analysis as the models continue mostly offshore.






2/27 - models bring the storm up to delmarva and then send ene. Looks like a near miss
0z runs
CMC looks best, but is just se of benchmark, but puts down a few inches - see above
EURO grazes us, but throws enough moisture back to make it interesting
GFS - mostly out to sea, but throws a lot of moisture back for a couple inches
UMKET - way out
Nogaps - way out
JMA - SE of benchmark but like the Euro and GFS, still gives some snow
DGEX - sends it due east off SC.


Interesting developments for the fourth. It was longranged on the GFS, then completely disappeared and is back again

0z runs
Euro - off OBX on the 4th (hits dc) and out to sea
UKMET - way out to sea
CMC - grazes us as it goes off obx on the 4th and out to sea
DGEX - way out to sea
GFS - off obx on the 3rd and out to sea

12z runs pushed north
Euro - obx on the 3rd, heads ne just se of bm. Grazes us
UKMET - still out to sea
CMC - pulls from obx north to bm, giving coastal areas snow - I think the pressure was 968
GFS - 984 off obx on the 3rd. Up to NJ 0z on the 4th and then hooks right, but gives the tristate a good snow fall. 980 pressure
JMA - 984 well se of bm, but would have some snow, mostly coastal.

Lots of talk about it coming north though with some gfs support

Prelim results for 25-26 retro storm

Storm tracked from off the NC coast up to south of CCod, over CT (New Haven had lowest pressure of 972 (28.72) and here was down to 975, so I think it went right over NH.

We received 2.72 inches of rain, had serious flooding as rain ran down icepak in back yard, over wall creating waterfall and streamed up against the sunroom. Then going down the wall in the basement and flowing out the garage.

We reached 32 around 2am, just in time to be dryslotted. At 4:30pm temps were 38, but wind shifted around 5-5:30 to the nw and temps dropped to 33. From there it took until 2am to reach freezing and we were dryslotted at the time.

Woke up with an inch of snow on the ground, and pavement with temps around 28. Gained 3-4 inches through the morning as we were in northern bands as low hung over NYC. Low then faded SSE and started to weaken by noon with snow squalls following.

Serious storm anywhere west or south of here. Greenwhich had about a foot as did White plains. Serious tree damage throughout the tristate. Ridgefield, 5 miles away had about 8 inches. Armonk over a foot. Ossning 18 inches. Across the Hudson, was brutal. 25-35 inches were common in Orange/Rockland. Even NJ had spots over 24"

Ski areas reported 60 inches at Belleayre 40 inches at Hunter (plus previous 22 brough them to 62 in three days), Loon - 39, Okemo - 30.

Winds - DXR had 35mph gust, but none at the house over 14. Most of the time the trees did not move. Different story in Maine, NH where gusts of 90mph occurred at buoys and 132mph on MT Washington Massive power outages to over 200,000 in ME/NH

And as of 2:30 on the 26th, its still squalling.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

result for 23rd

Started snowing late mon nite, not sticking, at 34 degrees. Woke up to two inches, no school. Snowed til noon before drizzling, rain, sleet and snow all mixed. Stayed 33-34 all day. Posting at 10pm and still 33.1 with rain and snow mixed, but mostly rain attm. Total snow today was 4in

Monday, February 22, 2010

beyond the 23-24 - into the 25th 26th

2-25

Its late for a prediction, but for danbury, 4 inches of wrap around on friday, early morn. NYC will get mostly rain until 9pm -6 inches for them. Depends on if and when cold air arrives. We get dry slotted once cold air arrives.

2-24
Delayed opening today. The bad news is that while the GFS was making progress going toward the euro, thd 0z runs of the euro, ukmet and cmc moved toward the gfs and the 6 z run of the gfs and nam moved further west with the r/s line. So unless there is a correction, this looks to be the last post as it will be a rain storm.

2-23

Well, the models are consistent run to run, but there are two camps. The US models take the low up the coast, close to NY and it sits somewhere to our west, keeping us rain until the cold air arrives, at which point we are dry slotted (nam). This looks the same as last nites post, so they are consistent. NAM puts out close to 10 inches of snow in spite of the call for rain. GFS also calls for some snow, but after rain. GFS has trended further west and a bit more weak with a 980 low now over or west of NY. Earlier (6z run) had it at 976. NWS in NY and Bos have commented that the GFS is feeding back convection and making the storm too strong, thus pulling it north and west. NAM is usually a bit north and west for the same reason. Accuweather is leaning more towards gfs, and JB is defending it.

The CMC, UKMET and EURO all have the storm further out, over the gulf stream, and bring it in over mass (as described last nite as well, so there is no change there). This keeps w ct and further west and south in the cold portion and will amount to a lot of snow. These models have it a bit weaker (980) than the nam and gfs. 12z Euro track is closer to gfs, although by the time its over nyc at 980, its actually north of nyc, the thickness line is way out to sea. CMC and UKMEt are both similar in strength but bring it around NYC through RI and Mass, keeping the thickness line out east of us.








0z nam
precip
18z gfs
12z gfs



2-22 12/18z

What was the third system, now is the main storm on most models.
While the ukmet tries to bury us on wed, it shows a stacked, 988 off Ccod on Friday morn, deepening further on Sat morning, still just a bit too far east for a major storm for us
Euro goes the same off ccod at 980 but brings it back into New England, resulting in snow fri into sat. Euro also keeps us cold the entire week.
WRF - all over the place. 12z run brings storm into E CT with us getting some snow and rain. 18z goes further east, around boston and into NH. 0z run for 2/23 goes bonkers with 970 low over NYC. Its rain at 72 hrs, but snow the other hours. See above as it moves NW into NNJ and spins for 18 hrs.
GFS - 12z moves a 984 over boston and to springfield(Fri) , to danbury (sat) and alb on Sunday where it weakens. This would clobber CT. 18z moves low from Providence to Springfield, still clobbering CT. see precip and other shots.

Friday, February 19, 2010

It goes beyond the 23rd...

2/22 - ok its 10pm and snowing at 34 degrees and 87rh. Not much more room for cooling although obs in Trenton are below freezing. I'm still doubtful it gets cold enough or snows hard enough to stick to the streets.

12z Looks like NAm is too late (no precip til 7am), UKMET gets it right, cmc too slow, gfs right. euro doesnt have the resolution to tell

So it looks like wet snow, light amounts overnight. UK met keeps it cold, nam warms it. CMC keeps us on the line through 72 hrs. Euro has right thicknesses (under 540) and keeps us under freezing, but barely, for the next week. GFS has right thicknesses, but goes to .8 at 850 for 6hrs on Wed. Its amazing the different timing, strengths and tracks being taken.

Beyond Wed is going into another thread.



2-21


12z
Euro - still keeps it cold enough at 850 to be all snow, so long as boundary layer is under 35.
UKMET - up to 72 hrs, looks like snow starts 6-12z tuesday and comes down hard later that day. Again, 850 line south of LI, so only real warm boundary layer should be causing rain
CMC - keeps 850 line on CT coast until 12z wed when its 992 low tracks up to nyc. from there it heads to buffalo, keeping us warm. But then the third low comes up and tracks around montauk, to Springfield, to Albany to Scranton to N NJ. Thickness lines after wed are clearly snow, but BL temps are in the 30's
WRF - secondary goes se, minor snow, then another forms and pushes 850 line and thickness line just on the coast. Keeps dxr mostly around .5 - (1.5) so its right on the r/s line. Wednesday is the real start and the phasing with the third system not until later thurs. If that happens, should be snow as the 540 thickness line runs from obx to ack. The 12z was much warmer in the beginning though.
GFS -18z - this just doesnt happen. The secondary stays south enough that the 850 line mostly stays south of us, except at 6z wed. Thickness stays south of us. It precips for a long time. The third storm phases well out to sea, then loops around into boston and sits there for friday and saturday, at 976! Snow reaching all the way to DXR from this! nuts.
12z - similar to 18z, but does not stick in bos as long. Both runs have dxr very close to r/s line and it depends on BL temps.
GFS ENS - using dominant precip type, only rain for them is at 18z on wed. rest is snow on 18z run. SREF is mostly rain though.


Precip amounts. Wrf has over 2 inches and thats just tues and weds. Gfs looks similar. The max it can do is 60 hours and this event will be much longer. The accuweather gfs has most of CT getting at least 2.5 inches of precip this week, with eastern parts closer to 3 and parts of Mass at 4. snowfall map has parts of vt, ma and ny with over 24 inches while ct has some... see above.


2-21 0z/6z



UKMET - holds off snow until tuesday night as first one goes to lakes and peters out. Second comes up coast for Tues nite and sits over us wed-fri

Euro - Moisture comes in mon nite as snow. 1000 low reforms off delmarva on tues nite, with dxr staying under freezing at 850. Low moves due north over BDL on Wed nite, then due East on Thurs nite when the third impulse catches up with it and it bombs out to 988 around the BM. Then it retros back into Mass on Fri nite. to Alb Sat nite. Model output for 850 temps all under 850 for dxr and RH from tues nite onward is in the upper 80's to 90's.

CMC - snow moves in Tues morn as secondary forms, secondary goes right up over NYC and hudson on Wed, putting us in the warmer sector. then it cuts off, and cold air pours in, putting us in the cold sector by wed nite. Then it just spins around NY/W New england for a few days with impulses coming in and going out, all under 0 at 850.

wrf - 6z - now has first storm dying with second forming to our south and heading ne, missing us for tuesday, but retrograding on wednesday, with us in the under 0 at 850 sector.
0z was similar non event as it did not retrograde

gfs -6zz holds off snow until tues afternoon, runs secondary out around li into RI. keeps weak until third system catches it over Bm, then pivots into CCOD area on Friday at 988. we are below 0 at 850 through the week, but surface temps are around 30-35.
0z run brings snow in tues morn, with secondary running to BDL, wed morn at 992, spinning and petering out, with third system coming in, but further east over BM and east of CCod and doing a loop over Ccod. see precip output for 6z above

















2-20 - models still a mess, with some putting nothing down for the first, but loading the second, some snow, some rain. the 0z run 2-21 has a huge amount of precip 3 inches in CT. see above. Its not all snow, maybe even very little. The dgex 18z also had a lot of snow on the ground in the hills NW CT. like over 24 inches. Problem remains too much warm air to start and low is too close (actually on top of us)

2-19 The afternoons runs for today show that the 23rd storm is trouble to forecast. This will be difficult to describe in words but I'll try
Euro - takes low in IL (1002), splits it primary into the lakes and secondary over NC/VA on Tues. Secondary takes over somewhere off NJ, but weak (1006) on Weds. Sits around the BM on Thurs and moves NW from RI to Ontario (996) on Fri. It keeps us right on the cold side of the 850 line and 540 line, but barely and I can see how it sleets or rains instead.

UKMET goes from MO on Monday, north into lakes Tuesday, but reforms off NC/SC. Goes north to Delmarva on Wednesday and to LI/CT on Thursday(992). Would guess this is snow to rain, but can't tell how much and when the change occurs.

GFS - 18z run is facinating. Over KY,IN and IL on Monday morn. Up to the lakes as a 1000mb with snow moving in Monday night here. Secondary forms Tuesday morn off OBX with steady snow continuing. Lakes low dissapates and secondary moves just southeast of BM, with still snow on Wed morn, but lightening up, at 998. Thursday it moves NW and dissapates while another storm is forming off NC. The old storm pushes the 850 line west with it, while the new one comes up the coast and centers (992) over C May Thurs morn. Thurs afternoon it goes to Scranton (988) and sits until Saturday as it moves over New England. The deepening on Thurs afternoon brings more cold air into it, pushing the 850 line east, with precip finally ending on Saturday. So it goes from snow, to rain, to snow. However, surface temps over most of S NY, CT, MA, NJ are all above 32 for most of the time.

DGEX - keeps with the primary to lakes, secondary off coast, keeps it all snow for us on Tuesday. Breaks the weather Wed Afternoon until Thurs afternoon when another low forms over SC, never makes it to the water?? and goes to philly pushing the 540 line all the way west to PIT.

CMC - Low monday over S. IL. Primary goes to N IN on Tues, with secondary forming over delmarva as snow begins tues morn over us. Wed - Old low weakens, secondary sits off NJ by NYC and spins for a day as old low kicks it out. After moving past BM, new low and old low (still over NYC) move almost due west back to Ontario and CCOD. just as weird as GFS, but results in all snow.

GFS ENs - 18z run has low over IN on mon. fades to the lakes and secondaries on tuesday over obx. Moves over BM on Wed 1000. East of CCod, barely on thurs. Weaker low develops thurs and moves east of here friday to about portsmouth. Only has rain for 6 hrs on wednesday.

whew
So the american models see the system coming up from the south, the CMC, UKMET and Euro don't. fun!

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Possible 2-23

2-18
12zs
gfs - low from WV to OBX with secondary over SC, consolidates East of Cape May, passes se of bm and hangs around CCod . Some snow, not alot. 18z is really bizarre as it goes well SE of BM but still brings in lots of snow, then it turns around and heads NW over CCOD. As it heads over CCOd another low forms off NC and follows NE to E of BM where it turns NW and heads right over CCOD on Friday. Gotta throw both of these out!
Euro - From Cape May to CCod, then NW into ME/NH border. Could have rain from it, especially near the coast. Most normal scenario
CMC - brings low to IN hen secondaries over VA and it sits over DC bringing us snow. Also odd
DGEX - sends low up to Buffalo, secondaries (?) over SC and heads due east. Just some WAA snow to rain. Very, very different from the 6z run.
UKMEt has broad area of low pressure off East coast.
gfsens bring low from OBX to se of bm, close enough for 3-5 inches

0z runs
gfs - over nc and out to sea - nada. 6z brings up coast to NJ. r/s line close
euro - primary to lakes, secondary off nj, then stalls at 1004. r/s line very close
CMC - gets just to BM and swings NNW stalling at 992 - all snow
UKMEt - same as euro, down to 1004
DGEX - primary to PA, then secondary off nj - stalls over BM has snow from Mon nite to Friday. puts down over 18 inches!!!
GFS Ens - just south of BM





2-17


12z
Euro - tn valley, dubl barrel w. pa and nj = "warm advection" snow - trended way north though - 1004 low
CMA - same look as Euro - trend north with dubl barrel to lakes and nj. keeps snow in though 992 low
GFS - still just south of bmark - 1000 low
UKMET - tn valley to delmarva - 992 low
GFS Ens shown above


So - Euro and CMC started flat W to E, now going Northeast. UKMEt used to go from FL to NC, now is flat. GFS the same. Way too much difference, but it looks like it will do something.




0z runs
Euro - off out over OBX - nothing - 988 low
JMA - off out over OBX - nothing
GFS - off delmarva over bmark and hangs around - nice storm
CMA - same as GFS - sticks around a little more
DGEX - goes to our north - rain
UKMet - looks promising, doesn't go that far out.

Euro puts 1000 mb over the benchmark with all snow event for us on the 23rd.
CMC and GFS also have it, a little further south. GFS switches from too south to a lakes runner every other run. UKMET starts one, but loses altogether. JMA pushes off OBX

Sunday, February 14, 2010

2-16

Finally a clipper coming through... 3-5 inches likely Monday nite into Tuesday. NWS concerned about mixing at shore. I'm more worried about dry slot. Potential is there for 6+, but not likely as storms have been tracking south this year. NAM and GFS have .25 to .5 for precip output, which concurs with 3-5 inches.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

2-10 storm



2-9 12z runs all have low nicely tucked under long island. Difference in timing remains, but most have strength of at least 980

12z NAM precip is at 1.25 - 1.5 for most of CT - hi res has 1.5-1.7

12z GFS precips at .75 - 1 with still the bulk falling around PHL and then out by the cape

Its 2pm and getting cloudy! Looks like a footer is coming!










2-8
0z Euro has 978 low just south of li wed eve, starts tues night/wed morn
0z UKmet has 976 low just south of li wed eve, starts wed morn
0z cmc has 968 low off nj and moves it southeast?? starts wed morn
0z gfs has 976 low s of li wed morn, .75, 6z looks weird that it splits the storm and rephases off cape cod, delaying snow and only .2
0z wrf has 976 low off east li .75, 6z off ack at 976, .75 but both don't start until wed afternoon
12z Euro has 1000mb low off delmarva, moving out to sea but with enough moisture to affect us then bombs to 970 out at sea
12z cmc has 992 low off delmarva, not moving to sea, but deepening to 976 and then 968 off the NJ coast, just north enough for us to get some snow, but pounds nj, phila and dc
12z ukmet takes a 996 low off delmarva to 976 low south of long island and out to sea, gets ct snow, but pounds s nj
12z nam - takes 996 low off delmarva into nyc to 984 then east to 976. Nails S. New England with danbury getting .75 liquid
12z gfs - takes 996 low off delmarva to 976 off nj, then 970 se of long island, only gives us .5 liquid

18z GFS and NAM focus shifts to precip amounts as we will be in the all snow sector.
NAm now shows .25 to .5, GFS has .5

Storm remains a NY-PHL storm, with perhaps some large amounts in far se new england
500 mb low is now tracking over s nj, not as stacked, but still keeping the surface low from escaping.





2-7 Above is 18z gfs precip run

0z Euro has 992 low double stacked from ohio to ct. 12 z NOLA to off DE at 1000mb
0z CMC - dubl barrelled oh/ga storm consolidates east of nj at 980, grazes CT. 12z goes further east of nj but bombs from 980 to 968 stationary south of LI. CT gets snow
0z ukmet - dubl barrel but phase way east of NC as 988 low - nothing. 12z phases closer to DE but still not far enough north for meaningful snow.
12z Wrf - OBX to CCOD, but somehow produces ton of snow. 18z slower - hangs storm out around ack and clobbers us. .75 inches of precip.
6z GFS - phases off DE, moves SE of bmark, grazes CT
12z GFS - phases off NJ, sits under LI -nails CT up to MA
18z - phases off nj goes to 976 S of LI- major storm on map, but oddly only puts 4 inches on snowmap. Precip has .25 Philly gets over 2 feet again.
GFS ENS passes low just south of bmark at 976 gets us with .5 precip

2-6 12z runs. Euro still dead on. Gfs dead on. DGEX, CAN and UKMET, now south of us.





2-6 - OK this one looks pretty solid.
DGEX - brings 986 low right over us along with stacked upper low
Euro is a little earlier (starts tues nite) and brings 984 low right over us, with stacked upper low
CMC brings a 976 low off S Jersey, stacked and goes right out to sea. Still shows snow for CT, but not further north.
Nogaps has upper low going over nyc, but surface low out to sea. Still has snow for CT
GFS 6z and 0z phase two storms over us at 988 with stacked upper. Lots of snow.
GFS ENs take it just south of the benchmark
UKMET - parks 984 low just south of LI. Stacked as well, then bombs to 966 out at sea

This looks a lot more serious than the 30% chance NWS is giving us. JB already calling it a blizzard.
So which will it be this time, moving north and turning to rain (the usual situation we have seen less of this year) or moving south and out to sea (which has happened several times, but is not usual)
Its gotta be the rain.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

2-6 storm

2/6 - not a flake of snow, RH 47 at dxr, dp 4, 21f

2/5 - precip for ct
0z gfs - .01, 6z - .01, 12z - .01, 18z 0-.01 to .25
all nam runs 0
EURO, CMC and UKMET all get the precip to the coast, but not past.
Its 6:30, 31 degrees, 60% humidity (at dxr) with 18 dewpoint. Calm wind. Radar has snow over us









Two models shows any precip for CT. GFS and JMA. Here are the shots at their most northern extent.


JB has 4-8 for nyc. HM has CT in 1-6, nyc in 6-12. EA 1-3.NWS has 40% chance of snow.
Water vapor is streaming out of the gulf and cloud cover is extensive in the middle of the country.