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Saturday, February 6, 2010

2-10 storm

2-9 12z runs all have low nicely tucked under long island. Difference in timing remains, but most have strength of at least 980

12z NAM precip is at 1.25 - 1.5 for most of CT - hi res has 1.5-1.7

12z GFS precips at .75 - 1 with still the bulk falling around PHL and then out by the cape

Its 2pm and getting cloudy! Looks like a footer is coming!

0z Euro has 978 low just south of li wed eve, starts tues night/wed morn
0z UKmet has 976 low just south of li wed eve, starts wed morn
0z cmc has 968 low off nj and moves it southeast?? starts wed morn
0z gfs has 976 low s of li wed morn, .75, 6z looks weird that it splits the storm and rephases off cape cod, delaying snow and only .2
0z wrf has 976 low off east li .75, 6z off ack at 976, .75 but both don't start until wed afternoon
12z Euro has 1000mb low off delmarva, moving out to sea but with enough moisture to affect us then bombs to 970 out at sea
12z cmc has 992 low off delmarva, not moving to sea, but deepening to 976 and then 968 off the NJ coast, just north enough for us to get some snow, but pounds nj, phila and dc
12z ukmet takes a 996 low off delmarva to 976 low south of long island and out to sea, gets ct snow, but pounds s nj
12z nam - takes 996 low off delmarva into nyc to 984 then east to 976. Nails S. New England with danbury getting .75 liquid
12z gfs - takes 996 low off delmarva to 976 off nj, then 970 se of long island, only gives us .5 liquid

18z GFS and NAM focus shifts to precip amounts as we will be in the all snow sector.
NAm now shows .25 to .5, GFS has .5

Storm remains a NY-PHL storm, with perhaps some large amounts in far se new england
500 mb low is now tracking over s nj, not as stacked, but still keeping the surface low from escaping.

2-7 Above is 18z gfs precip run

0z Euro has 992 low double stacked from ohio to ct. 12 z NOLA to off DE at 1000mb
0z CMC - dubl barrelled oh/ga storm consolidates east of nj at 980, grazes CT. 12z goes further east of nj but bombs from 980 to 968 stationary south of LI. CT gets snow
0z ukmet - dubl barrel but phase way east of NC as 988 low - nothing. 12z phases closer to DE but still not far enough north for meaningful snow.
12z Wrf - OBX to CCOD, but somehow produces ton of snow. 18z slower - hangs storm out around ack and clobbers us. .75 inches of precip.
6z GFS - phases off DE, moves SE of bmark, grazes CT
12z GFS - phases off NJ, sits under LI -nails CT up to MA
18z - phases off nj goes to 976 S of LI- major storm on map, but oddly only puts 4 inches on snowmap. Precip has .25 Philly gets over 2 feet again.
GFS ENS passes low just south of bmark at 976 gets us with .5 precip

2-6 12z runs. Euro still dead on. Gfs dead on. DGEX, CAN and UKMET, now south of us.

2-6 - OK this one looks pretty solid.
DGEX - brings 986 low right over us along with stacked upper low
Euro is a little earlier (starts tues nite) and brings 984 low right over us, with stacked upper low
CMC brings a 976 low off S Jersey, stacked and goes right out to sea. Still shows snow for CT, but not further north.
Nogaps has upper low going over nyc, but surface low out to sea. Still has snow for CT
GFS 6z and 0z phase two storms over us at 988 with stacked upper. Lots of snow.
GFS ENs take it just south of the benchmark
UKMET - parks 984 low just south of LI. Stacked as well, then bombs to 966 out at sea

This looks a lot more serious than the 30% chance NWS is giving us. JB already calling it a blizzard.
So which will it be this time, moving north and turning to rain (the usual situation we have seen less of this year) or moving south and out to sea (which has happened several times, but is not usual)
Its gotta be the rain.

1 comment:

SW CT WX said...

results - 3 inches in danbury, 9 in White plains and Greenwich. 12-14 in NYC area and N Jersey. None in NH where we were. 10 in central park and 10.5 in DC. Entire east coast closed. Schools in Boston closed where no snow accumulated at all. Our offices closed in PHL, DC, NJ, NY, LI

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