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Friday, May 20, 2016

Tropical Season opener

5-23 update.  ECMWF and EPS still have trouble brewing, except todays version has it moving NE rather than west.   0z GFS looks like it stirs it up on the 30th, sits it off FL/GA for a few days and heads NE, similar to Euro.  6z crashes it into GA.  12z into SC  Both models are rather weak.   CMC also has several LPs that are not cold core. 


5-20  Interesting run on the GFS this morning.  These are winds from a system forming in the Atlantic. June 1,2 and 4. Euro EPS has the feature much weaker and moving due west.

GFS 6-1

GFS 6-2

GFS 6-4
EPS 5-28

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Spring snows

4-4  An inch for Sunday morning and light snow today, maybe we'll get an inch.  Ground already covered.

3-31  Euro and GFS onto waking up to a coating of snow on Sunday.  Warming the wave coming through on Tuesday and drying.  Still chance for 1-3 on the grass.

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            12Z MAR30
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.5    -7.3     996      88      80    0.17     518     521   
SUN 18Z 03-APR   3.7    -9.5    1007      29      95    0.01     527     522   
MON18Z 04-APR   5.9    -3.0    1014      60      99    0.02     552     540   
TUE 00Z 05-APR   6.2     3.1    1009      76      82    0.00     551     544   
TUE 06Z 05-APR   1.8     0.1    1010      95      98    0.08     548     541   
TUE 12Z 05-APR  -1.1    -6.9    1015      78      59    0.12     543     532   
TUE 18Z 05-APR   1.8    -9.3    1019      49      80    0.01     540     525
   

Euro 0Z


At least the 0z GFS is on board with something.  6z is warmer like the CMC

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            00Z MAR31   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SUN 00Z 03-APR   7.3    -0.5     995      76      86    0.07     531     535   
SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.7    -3.7     989      86      96    0.09     518     527   
SUN 12Z 03-APR  -3.5   -13.4    1000      78      88    0.14     514     514   
SUN 18Z 03-APR  -1.8   -15.0    1010      51      32    0.01     530     523
  
  
MON 18Z 04-APR   2.3    -3.4    1013      86      99    0.13     548     537   
TUE 00Z 05-APR   2.8     0.9    1008      99      99    0.26     547     540   
TUE 06Z 05-APR   1.0    -3.4    1008      95      46    0.02     541     535   


GFS 0z
CMC is steady with its forecast of brining the low over us from the NW, with snow turning to rain. 
JMA is further south
NAVGEM is pretty far north, which is a red flag for snow.

3-30  0z Euro with 9-12 inches most of ct.  But falling later on Tuesday now, so possibly much less accumulation.  0z GFS with .44qpf but mixed.  6z run with .06qpf, snow.  UKMET has low over VA.  CMC runs the low right over us, with light mix.

    

3-29  0z Euro was on board, 12z says southern slider.  Snow shower threat stronger for Sat/Sun.
0z gfs= light snow event; 6z has storm coming up from FL staying off the coast with a light snow event.  Getting those two together would be major.  12z GFS says hello to Euro solution of last night and yesterday, a 3-9 inches in New England. 18z GFS disappears altogether.


3-28  Snow showers on Sunday with most models.  Possible storm on Tues Morn.
Snow map for the 6th on the Euro - right now its the only one showing this.
And it comes from this minor set up with .81 qpf
and these temps


Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Spring? Snow? 21st?

result 3.5"  of snow, gone by end of day

3-19
Evening
Nam still inching back
And GFS is on board with snow!
RGEM goes just outside benchmark
GEFS has a pretty far east track still, but is more abundant with moisture.





Afternoon.  GFS/NAM/Euro/CMC Models inching westward, putting flakes back in forecast, GGEM with bigger storm, warning criteria

 Euro coming a bit west.
12z


0z
 GFS coming west

12z

0z
NAM coming west
12z

0z
0z
12z




3-18  Evening.  NAM/GFS with misses.  Euro brushing us. UKMET still on board. CMC very strange solution - goes to two lows, first out to sea, W to E, then the second comes up from F, weak, and takes sharp right off DE/MD and heads ENE but does bring a good snow. JMA still has it

Euro ens still goes over BM. GFS ens aren't that far off either.  Still enough to watch.


morning.  Euro caved to GFS, grazes us with a few inches.  GFS 0z run nearly a complete miss.  UKIE, JMA still on board.  But even a greater difference between the euro 12z and 0z run is the Nam 0z to 6z run. Wild. We can't figure out the cause.  NAM and Euro just sped up the surface low to the GFS timing.  GFS timing is usually too fast, so this is odd.  I suppose its right for the first time this year?
NAM 0z

NAM 6z

NAM 6z

NAm 0z



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3-17 afternoon  -GFS coming west, again like yesterday, but still doesn't put it all together.  Its faster and likely jumping energy out ahead. CMC is west again.  UK still scores us, still beyond 72 hrs so no details, but path is favorable for major storm.



3-17  Ingredients there for major storm - its how the pieces come together.

 Euro is impressive this morning.  LP goes by us at 980mb with plenty of cold air at 700/850/925mb levels.  It starts off OBX at 1000mb at 0z, 992mb due south of Newtown, off Cape May at 6z, to 980mb just south of Marthas Vineyard at 12z (Bombing) to 972mb approaching Portland.  Tropical force sustained winds briefly along NJ coast, more extensive over Cape Cod, with gusts to hurricane strength.  Inland winds are less, as usual, but get gusty as the storm passes with some gusts in the 40kt range. Ensemble supports. 


UKMET has it, perhaps a bit further west.  JMA has it a little east.NAVGEM is a little east - both develop it later than UK and EC.  

GFS is almost completely out to sea again, despite its pulling it back into our area, alarming me, yesterday.  Its much weaker, no phasing. Should note the ensemble is further west, a red flag.
0z gfs

6z gfs
CMC has reversed itself from the 966 low off Cape Cod on the 12z run yesterday to a 996 low going out to sea tomorrow.


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3-16 Halfway through  March, DXR is +6.7 temp and has .3" of snow with .6" qpf of normal 4.43.  As we go into a pattern change, look for more precip, cooler temps and yes, a chance of snow.  Below are the forecast maps for early 3-21.  GFS moving towards an overnight, early morning snowstorm, Euro a bit offshore and GGEM moving it to our south, but delivering 1-3"

0z Euro

0z GEM/CMC

0z GFS

6z GFS

12z GFS
Shifting this further west makes sense given further amplification, but just how far west is the question.  I could see this turn out as a wet snow/sleet/rain storm.  Keeping an eye out for now.