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Friday, April 24, 2015

The end...

The never ending winter going out with a few flurries yesterday and today, remarkably in the middle of the day.  Just briefly, but yesterday at 45 degrees, today at 39.  Euro control has last gasp on May 2 when the last of the blocking kicks down an upper level low over us, with thickness lines south of the area.  Nothing much, just a possible sprinkle, flurry.  The euro operational has a few close calls with nor'easters up until that point.  0z GFS also has this blocking and upper feature.  It keeps us near the 540 thickness line until May 5th.  6z keeps us cool until May 9th.

0z gfs
6z gfs

Monday, March 30, 2015

Late March Early April

Then there is this surprise for Easter night, via the Euro.  The snow over PA includes todays snow.

Storm for Easter Saturday is coming together on the models.  GFS has pulled back west of us, Euro is pushing east, but still west of us.  UKIE looks to track just west.  CMC is just west.  I don't expect a southerly shift, but it may not take much.  Still a possibility it ends as snow.

This mornings GFS snow map . RGEM is with it. NAM is drier. Euro kills the precip before it gets here

HRRR has more precip, but not as snow

HRRR precip


3-30   Still stuck with this trough in the east.  Brought snow each of the last three days, all melted by noon.  Still another opportunity exists for tomorrow afternoon, but being during daylight with temps over 32, shouldn't accumulate.  Path of clipper headed further south today, but they will have even warmer temps.  Easter weekend still looks interesting - Euro still having the low pass well to our NW bringing rain, GFS is flatter with it being very close to snowing, though temps ahead of front are in the 50's.   I'll go with a rain ending as wet snow for Easter Saturday.

After that, the Euro weekly has -10c temps at 850 as late as 4/22, with another trough coming in for the end of the month with 850 temps under 0c.  The good news is that its not locked in completely.  But no 70's or 80's on that run for the NE.  

Monday, March 16, 2015

Spring Snow

3-20 -  Didn't get to update yesterday.  NAM held steady with .17 qpf for DXR.  GFS and Euro backed down the heaviest 6hr period from .4 to .25.  Though totals went down a little, they spread out .05 to .1" qpf over several 6hr periods.  That shouldn't accumulate.  This mornings HRRR and RAP still suggested 4-5", until the 13z run which has 3".  Temps slightly higher than forecast.  They were not forecast by any model to go above freezing, current temp is 33.2.  DP and WB temps still quite low, teens and lower 20's. 

3-18  Afternoon - GFS is now onboard

3-18  Euro still onboard with 3" of snow for the Danbury area.  QPF is .46 but looking at .39 for the 10:1 ratio time frame.  Temps do support snow.  No holes in any layer, just a matter of where the precip goes now.

Euro snow 3-18 0z run

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            00Z MAR18
                               2 M     850     6 HR
                              TMP    TMP    QPF 
                               (C)      (C)     (IN)   
FRI 12Z 20-MAR  -6.2    -4.7      0.00    
FRI 18Z 20-MAR  -1.1    -7.3      0.05 
SAT 00Z 21-MAR  -2.2    -3.5    0.30    
SAT 06Z 21-MAR  -2.2    -1.9    0.09    
SAT 12Z 21-MAR  -1.9    -4.5    0.02    

GFS still at .1 qpf, for an inch of snow, but temps support snow as well.  0z and 6z NAM is also further south with QPF, but 12z may see some changes.

3-17  Euro continues on a 3-4" snow for the morning of the 21st for NYC/LI north. 850s well below 0 with surface temps at or below 0, so snow is supported.   .52 liquid qpf is currently forecast - snow ratio likely under 10:1, but it may be close.  1000-500 thickness in the 535 range, also supporting all snow.
                 2 M     850     6 HR    
                 TMP     TMP     QPF     
                 (C)     (C)    (IN)      
FRI 18Z 20-MAR   0.2    -6.9    .12         
SAT 00Z 21-MAR  -0.4    -2.9    .34         
SAT 06Z 21-MAR  -0.8    -4.6    06        
SAT 12Z 21-MAR  -1.7    -2.8    0.00      

0z GFS is less robust, with colder temps.  Only snow showers. CMC and UKMET more like Euro


DGEX brushes us with 1", but reloads and makes it look like we will get hit on the 25th.
Early NAM looks south - complete miss.
JMA from 12z yesterday has a nice deepening storm off New England 12z 3-21 after spreading .5 qpf.

3-16  First weekend of spring.... snow/rain.

Friday night into Saturday, Euro calls for 2-4 inches throughout Tristate.  This is coming from a southern storm, fairly weak, sliding to our south that will pull some cold air down and change from rain to snow.
850s and 925s support snow on this one, really most of the time. 
12z euro mslp

12z euro snow map
Then Sunday, some snow showers and perhaps another inch or two?? Scenarios where the precip chase the front don't usually work out, but there should at least be snow showers.  850s are warm ahead though.
Then a little flurries/snow showers as a warm front moves through on the 25th
3-25 warm front action
GFS supports Euro

12z GFS snow  6" for tristate