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Thursday, February 11, 2016

2-15 to 2-19

2-12  0.3 degrees this morning at 7:20

GFS bullseyes us with the low pressure on Tuesday evening. Warm air well in front is suspicious. 

 Euro shifted east, but is still west of the GFS, with the LP running PHL to ALB
Both have temps in the 50's during this event, which would be nice, but I think a little high
CMC runs it right over us.  JMA from 12z 2-11 runs it east of us but is also warm. NAVGEM just to our west, similar to GFS.  UKMET goes GA to ALB.  
Will continue to monitor, in case it shifts east or shows more of a front end snow.



2-11 As we start submitting to old man winter, polar front should bring some squalls for a dusting on the 12th/13th.  Then below 0 weather with highs in single digits should be in play Sat/Sun.  Then a storm forms in LA, swings through AL on Monday with warm air surging ahead.   Monday night should have snow, but all indications are an inland track of the storm.  This means a snow to rain event.  It is shocking to see how fast the cold leaves the area on Monday, almost unbelievable, to near 50 on Tuesday.  We would have to see some front end snow, but the high slides offshore bringing in SE winds, so at this point, its more of a 1-3 or 2-4 quick hit then a lull as it warms and rain.

At this point 12z GFS is east of 12z Euro, which is not unusual.  The jump west on the Euro from 0z (over us) to 12z (over State College to Buffalo) is a little dramatic, but I'm not going to be surprised if this moves further west on the GFS. GFS is jucier with the warm front, Euro pretty dry.  I believe the GFS on that.   NAVGEM rule in effect - it has the storm Harrisburg to Albany.  Watch for GFS to shift west.

Previous runs had a system trailing the one on the 15th/16th , which has disappeared from 12z runs.

Warms afterwards.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

One more storm? Mid Feb

2-2  Still differences in how the time period goes, but still active and with opportunities.  Here is the euro 12z snow map as an example.


Vs GFS

vs CMC

JMA is on board
CMC ensembles a little earlier




2-1  There's something happening here...what it is ain't exactly clear...

GFS has been pretty set on bringing one up the coast around the 9th, along with a clipper in the lakes. It keeps the two separated for our area
Euro operational is more bullish on a phased system, but to our west.  It pulls so much warmth ahead that there is no front end snow, which is unusual.
EPS is weaker on this system, like the GFS, but has a follow up on the 10th.


GFS ens looks more like just a clipper, as does CMC ens.
CMC operational looks like the GFS, with a two part system with the one from the south moving over us.  Should be a snow/rain setup. 





1-30  Time frame is still interesting.  There is also a chance of a coastal forming post frontal passage on the 6th.

1-27  With the storm going off to the east, all is pretty quiet.  Northern branch storms need to be watched for changes, but most are pulling to the lakes, which is what I expected to happen. Problem is no cold air so no front end snow/ice.   This changes around the 3rd or so as a potent storm moves through the lakes and brings down a new air mass significantly colder.  There may be one or two clippers within that airmass, but no major storm until the 10-12th time frame, as shown below.

While I wouldn't take this solution as gospel, I mean its 372 hrs out (62 more runs of the GFS!), but it does show the potential and the pattern. 

Sunday, January 24, 2016

1-29

1-27  So why do I still follow this one?  Check the gfs progression of precip through todays runs.
0z

6z

12z

18z
The 18z gfs has the low crossing 40N around 65W as a 984 low.  The 0z is at 62W as a 996 low.  That's a 160 mile shift west.


The NAM moved this way too, bringing this to the cape (which may have rain mixed in)
12 z Euro also moved west to dust the cape.
As did the UKMET

So the westward trend today, along with the strengthening, keeps me interested, even if its only flurries (from the northern system that is) that hit us.  I think it may back up a little more, so that Montauk and RI get in on a dusting.

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1-26  Still out to sea, still watching, not likely going to snow.

1-25
Models are just offshore with this - close enough to still watch.  Afternoon update - most still out to sea. 
GFS
NAVGEM

Euro

CMC
UKMET

1-24
Watching for something to hit or pass us out to sea on Friday the 29th.  JMA had this yesterday, UKMET is close, Euro is in a great spot, down to 978, and the NAVGEM is also on board, just to the east, where it belongs.  GFS nowhere to be found as is the DGEX.  CMC is close enough to watch.

Euro

Navgem

CMC