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Tuesday, November 7, 2017

First snow map

11-7  Had some wet snow mix in from time to time but not enough to call it first flakes.  More like first splotches on the windshield.

Pattern looks to have shifted with more zonal or troughy look to it rather than being under a ridge. This is second or third run in a row with this on the Euro.  GFS still has it get warmer as we get closer to Thanksgiving.  Euro EPS control however puts snow down.  First real snow map of the season.

Its from a cut off upper level low with another low coming into it from the Atlantic, so take it lightly. Westward moving lows don't usually cause snow.

Friday, November 3, 2017

Official end of growing season 11/1


Below is the statement from the NWS ending the growing season with our first freeze
We got down to 30.9 here and it stayed below freezing for about 2 hours, but did not end the growing season as all our plants are alive and doing fine.


 
 
00
NOUS41 KOKX 011248
PNSOKX
CTZ005>008-NJZ002-103-NYZ068-081-012000-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
848 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017

...The growing season has come to an end...

Widespread freezing temperatures occurred overnight and early this
morning across Western Passaic and Western Bergen Counties of New
Jersey, interior southern Connecticut and southeastern Suffolk
County in New York bringing an end to the growing season.

Since the growing season has come to an end, it means that Frost
Advisories and/or Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings will not be
issued again until the start of the growing season during Spring
of 2018.

$$ 
 
 

Friday, October 27, 2017

October 30th


10-28  afternoon.  12z Euro gusts are out of control. Has to be something wrong with the output.




10-28  Not too much in the way of changes.  Track is narrowed between E.PA and E CT.  What exactly happens with the tropical system needs to be worked on. Does it remain an entity and hit the Cape and Islands, or does it lose its energy to the low going up NJ into PA/NY .  Some precip maps.
Euro precip

GFS precip

Nam precip


Nam 3k
 Winds still a concern, particularly east of the CT river, but that could bleed to the NY/CT border.  LI is also vulnerable.



A closer look at winds in Southern new england

Euro gusts

Nam gusts


10-27  Been watching this one develop for a week now, with fairly consistent big picture trends but details still a bit off.   Idea behind this one is a tropical system start developing off Central America and quickly moves north, crossing Cuba/FL.  Whether this is named or not doesn't matter.  Even if its just an amorphous blob of moisture, it will do its job.  At the same time this entity moves NNE, an energetic upper low drops out of the upper plains into the TN valley area and spawns a low pressure system which merges with the unnamed tropical system.  The position of the ULL draws that system up the coast.  The Euro has it as a 980 low going parallel to NJ and up the Hudson Valley. The NAM a 976 low over LI/CT and the GFS targets SE Mass with a weaker 992mb low.

The differences in track, though not off by much for a fall storm, brings much different scenarios to areas.  GFS focuses most of the precip east, euro west, nam down the middle. Winds are east on NAM and GFS, over CT on the Euro.

Euro gusts

Euro Precip

GFS gusts

GFS pecip

Nam Gusts

Nam Precip
Other models:  JMA looking similar to Euro precip wise.  CMC I'm tossing as it develops the tropical system (as usual) and has it hit ACK as a hurricane.  NAVGEM on the other hand doesn't develop the tropical system until later, missing the interaction, but the lp spawns anyway and precip looks like GFS, though a completely different set up. UKMET hard to tell with 24 hr gaps, but has low off NJ similar to Euro but looks like its going more of a NAM track.

So big picture, a fairly potent storm coming to the northeast.