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Saturday, August 23, 2014

Cristobal (TD4)

8-28 -moving harmlessly away - except for rips and swells.



8-24  0z and 6z runs showing no landfall threat, except for Bermuda on the GFS and Newfoundland on the ECMFW.  Euro ens still show FL in play, but not much in way of support. No real respect for this system as the HWRF has it going to a minimal hurricane, but only once it reaches 40/60.   However, as the center keeps being relocated (this morning to the NE) and until there is a solid movement and consistent location of center, still monitor for EC.

12z runs - CMC heads it NE, then N, then NW then NE - deepens nicely.  Misses Bermuda on the jog NW.  Has another cyclone forming near the Bahamas at the end of the run
Euro operational heads it NW day one NE day two, N day three and NE day four
GFDL similar - never makes it more than a TS. Day four to the N of Bermuda
GFS much slower, brushes Bermuda hr 114
HWRF like GFS, but a bit further north at 114, also develops into H2 and develops 2nd cyclone like CMC
NAVGEM brushes Bermuda to the north at hr 108 - deepens nicely

One more run should eliminate our threat on the EC, but still watching out for Bermuda.


8-23  Most recent runs... off FSU site

CMC - no longer into Gulf, now heading NNE once into Bahamas, skirting Newfoundland
Euro ens mean - wnw out of Bahamas across central FL.  Nothing very strong.
Euro operational - wnw for a day, then slowly due north until hr 120  when it kicks due east as it approaches OBX (doesn't get too close though)
GFDL - the 18z, well, its a little messed up.  The surface map has it similar to Euro, but striking near NC/SC border at 126hr.  The centered map has it going SW of Haiti. 12 run has it skirting the FL coast to hr 120.
GFS 12z has it looking like GFDL, too close for comfort, but staying offshore, then once it makes a NE turn it explodes sub 980.
Hwrf also has it off shore, parallel to the coast through 120 - 966 lowest pressure.

So, we wait while the system gets more organized. We know for sure its missing this weekends trough and the next one as it slowly meanders nnw.  It should catch the next one on Thurs/Fri though, but there are some signs of that slowing.  Definitely keep an eye on this - all of east coast. 



Tuesday, April 1, 2014

DEC-MAR Summary


 
4-1 Summarizing the winter - it was cold! Nearly 5 below normal. Below is the climate data map from
Accupro, for DEC-MAR. 6 days reached 0 or below. 10 was the lowest high. We have not broken 60 degrees in 2014, but reached 58 in January, and 59 in March.  This is unusual, but 2013 had a similar lack of warmth.
We also ended up with about 75% of the precip we normally do, with Feb being slightly over 100%. March was very dry, until the last three days when half the months rain fell. The airport recorded only
a trace of snow for March. The 62" of snow recorded at the airport is half the record amount, but 50%
greater than average.

These stats, particularly the cold, are remarkable since the teleconnections did not cooperate, or add up to this pattern. Nothing terribly cold on the AO, almost entirely positive NAO, and a PNA that split its time. EPO also was nothing steady







 
Temp departures Dec-Mar
 December 
 
TOTALS FOR DXR   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   68         TOTAL PRECIP        3.03
LOWEST TEMPERATURE     3         TOTAL SNOWFALL      13.2
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 31.6         NORMAL PRECIP       4.16
DEPARTURE FROM NORM -0.6         % OF NORMAL PRECIP    73
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1026
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS  1015
January
 
TOTALS FOR DXR   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   58         TOTAL PRECIP        2.47
LOWEST TEMPERATURE    -7         TOTAL SNOWFALL      14.4
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 23.0         NORMAL PRECIP       3.76
DEPARTURE FROM NORM -4.4         % OF NORMAL PRECIP    66
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1295
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS  1167
 
February
  
TOTALS FOR DXR   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   50         TOTAL PRECIP        3.25
LOWEST TEMPERATURE    -5         TOTAL SNOWFALL      34.8
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 23.7         NORMAL PRECIP       3.18
DEPARTURE FROM NORM -7.0         % OF NORMAL PRECIP   102
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1148
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS   961
 
March 
 
TOTALS FOR DXR   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   59         TOTAL PRECIP        3.12
LOWEST TEMPERATURE     2         TOTAL SNOWFALL     trace
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 31.0         NORMAL PRECIP       4.43
DEPARTURE FROM NORM -7.6         % OF NORMAL PRECIP    70
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1047
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS   818

More possibilities...

4-1  No april fools.

NWS has snow in the forecast thurs night into friday.  Models don't really support this as a low cuts up to our west, tries to secondary, but its too warm by then.  They are focused on a piece of energy coming out ahead of that, but with 850s freezing line moving further north, can't see how we get snow.  Freezing rain, if surface temps warrant, but nothing to worry about.

4/8 to 4/10

CMC has snow, at least higher up.
Euro has a lesser system, borderline snow, but brings a big storm up at the end of the run
GFS has storm, but a bit warmer and stronger, shoots the low at hr 240 out to sea.

DGEX has storm at 980 moving right over NYC and bouncing east.  850's support start and end as snow.