Tropical Dump page
Thursday, March 9, 2017
3-15 NAM had the storm further west than any model once at 84hrs. This was not unusual. The NAM continued to trend west though, as the GFS hung east until the last day. UKIE was first to go west, then CMC, then Euro, and the GFS even on the day of the storm took it to benchmark.
Here is a graphic of the result:
Here was Uptons snow map from 6 hours before the snow began (10:30pm for here)
Lastly, I came in second for the Accuweather forecast challenge of 2017
Afternoon runs. CMC goes nuts.
Morning runs. Euro goes nuts. Gusts near 100mph over the ocean
So far, I like the idea of widepread 8-16 inches, with 10-14 for here.
3-11 Afternoon runs
Options from the morning runs are:
3-10 GFS furthest west at this point. Track doesn't concern me too much, but the 87kt winds and 3+" of precip don't come from a low that bottoms out at 990mb. Something doesn't add up.
3-9 GEFS members.
Euro version with 850 line.
Wider Euro version
CMC, Euro and GFS all on board with similar runs to what you see above. All bring significant snows up the east coast. Differences persist with the strength of the low, and I think qpf may be underdone. There is still room for it to come closer to the coast and I'd be surprised if we don't see a few trends in that direction over the next 3 days. That doesn't necessarily mean it rains, except at the coast. Here are a few of the latest snow maps. Note these include the 3" from tomorrows storm.