11-7 Had some wet snow mix in from time to time but not enough to call it first flakes. More like first splotches on the windshield.
Pattern looks to have shifted with more zonal or troughy look to it rather than being under a ridge. This is second or third run in a row with this on the Euro. GFS still has it get warmer as we get closer to Thanksgiving. Euro EPS control however puts snow down. First real snow map of the season.
Friday, November 3, 2017
Below is the statement from the NWS ending the growing season with our first freeze
We got down to 30.9 here and it stayed below freezing for about 2 hours, but did not end the growing season as all our plants are alive and doing fine.
00 NOUS41 KOKX 011248 PNSOKX CTZ005>008-NJZ002-103-NYZ068-081-012000- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 848 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 ...The growing season has come to an end... Widespread freezing temperatures occurred overnight and early this morning across Western Passaic and Western Bergen Counties of New Jersey, interior southern Connecticut and southeastern Suffolk County in New York bringing an end to the growing season. Since the growing season has come to an end, it means that Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings will not be issued again until the start of the growing season during Spring of 2018. $$
Friday, October 27, 2017
10-28 Not too much in the way of changes. Track is narrowed between E.PA and E CT. What exactly happens with the tropical system needs to be worked on. Does it remain an entity and hit the Cape and Islands, or does it lose its energy to the low going up NJ into PA/NY . Some precip maps.
10-27 Been watching this one develop for a week now, with fairly consistent big picture trends but details still a bit off. Idea behind this one is a tropical system start developing off Central America and quickly moves north, crossing Cuba/FL. Whether this is named or not doesn't matter. Even if its just an amorphous blob of moisture, it will do its job. At the same time this entity moves NNE, an energetic upper low drops out of the upper plains into the TN valley area and spawns a low pressure system which merges with the unnamed tropical system. The position of the ULL draws that system up the coast. The Euro has it as a 980 low going parallel to NJ and up the Hudson Valley. The NAM a 976 low over LI/CT and the GFS targets SE Mass with a weaker 992mb low.
The differences in track, though not off by much for a fall storm, brings much different scenarios to areas. GFS focuses most of the precip east, euro west, nam down the middle. Winds are east on NAM and GFS, over CT on the Euro.
So big picture, a fairly potent storm coming to the northeast.