Trends trends trends.
of course the 18z gfs breaks the trend.
The Upper Level Low circled over SE Canada is what will dictate if we get precip. Even the latest NAM takes the storm to our south and doesn't develop it much, due to the influence of that ULL. IF that ULL moves out and the two other circled areas phase (past hr 84) then game on for a strong noreaster. If the ULL stays, then it goes south. If the ULL moves out but the pieces remain separate, there would be some snow from CT to DE, perhaps VA.
3/15 Strong signals that something will happen next week, just exactly what is tbd. All models have something moving through, but is it over us, south of us and out to sea? Here's the NAVGEM from 12z today. Typically the NAVGEM is east or southeast of where the storm ends up. We use it as a guide to compare with other more dynamic models, so when the other models are south or east of the NAVGEM there is confusion. NAVGEM rarely gives a storm 3 days of life.
Monday, March 5, 2018
17" wiped on table, 13" on deck, 14" on grass. Lost power for 36 hours at 5pm. From 6 - 7 pm we had 4" of snow. Lots of thundersnow, mostly NYC south during the above radar loop
|4" between 6 and 7pm|
|48 New Lebbon|
|22 new lebbon|
3-6 Will grab the 12z snow maps for later analysis. First wanted to post something that the NAM does at 850 with temps that I rarely see in our area.
NAM Precip trend. 0z was a little weaker and the upper low came into play 3-6 hours later. Not much of an affect.
Here's a 10:1 ratio picture with JFK getting 29"
Have a surface low going up west, spitting out a secondary and a cut off deepening upper low capturing the primary. The whole setup looks under done.
GFS upper low trend
The Euro snow looks pretty good.