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Saturday, July 7, 2018

Hurricane Chris

7-12  Afternoon:  Landfall has either occurred or is imminent near St. Pierre.

Morning: Chris back to TS with 70mph winds.  Heaviest precip has transferred to the northwest portion of the storm, with winds on the northeast, which is typical for storms north of 40N.  As it converts to post tropical/extra tropical, winds will expand.  Newfoundland looks to be be taking a strong hit.  Even if the eye doesn't pass over land (which it looks like it will to me) the bulk of the damage is caused ahead of the eye and the precip will be to the NW putting the island in the direct path.

7-11  Chris made it to cat 2, with max sustained winds of 105mph overnight.  Lowest pressure was 970mb.  Chris is speeding away this evening with a chance that it hits Newfoundland tomorrow evening as a TS.  Still looks strong on the satellite this evening and is currently at 90mph winds moving northeast at 25mph.  Wind field should expand as it transitions to extra tropical.

Latest Dropsonde with surface reading at 83mph

Afternoon -waiting for upgrade.  HDOB with 984mb low and 84mph winds.  Dropsonde with near surface winds of over 95mph.


Morning update - still a TS with winds of 70mph.  The dry air is almost mixed out on the WV loop and the radar, while at a distance, briefly showed a complete eyewall.  Would need recon to provide a radar image to confirm.

Still predicted to be a cat one at max 90 mph and no threat to land until Newfoundland (but there is time for that to change).  Wouldn't be surprised if this reached 100 mph briefly either.   Would be surprised if it went higher, or didn't exceed 75 mph.

7-9  Will the eye reform?

Evening satellite prior to nightfall.

 Chris was named in the 5am advisory yesterday.  Its expected to hang around awhile, then head northeast.  Some advisories have gotten he max winds up to 90mph 11 pm disco but the opportunity to advance is limited by the upwelling going on underneath as it stays stationary.  If it can get into warmer water, then the structure would allow it to strengthen, possibly rapidly and get to 90mph.  However, NHC has tuned it down a notch since last night.   It is coming into radar though.

A look at the satellite

7-7  This hasn't made it to official TS status yet, but recon did show smfr winds at 50mph.

Here's how it looks mid day.  Its not going anywhere for now as its stalled under  a front.  Guidance and sense says that it should stay fairly close to where it is, then move northeast. However, since its so close to land, and since guidance has changed a few times in the last day, we should still watch this.  It is currently forecast to be a hurricane and pass 40N at 65W

Thursday, July 5, 2018

Hurricane Beryl/TS Beryl

7-13  Crazy Beryl remnants firing up off the coast today. Its moving away and has little moisture to work with as its entire western half is quite dry air.

7-7 Crazy Beryl got knocked around overnight and is now exposed with no convection around its center.  They've downgraded to TS and winds of 60.

7-6  Quite the overachiever Beryl is.  NHC initial guidance was 40mph max winds in their intial disco at 11am yesterday.  In the 5pm update it was at 50mph with max winds predicted at 75mph.  An eye appeared for the 11pm update and the 5am update has it as a hurricane, 75mph with it expected to peak at 85mph.
It should track to the islands and open up afterwards.  Its strength at the time of hitting the islands is questionable at this time, but the track is pretty straightforward at least through Monday. 

Maybe a bit north or south of this but completely reasonable.  Its a very small storm, eye is 5 miles wide.  Hurricane force winds extend 10 miles from the center and TS force winds 35 miles per 5 am update.

After Monday, its expected that the storm is dissipated - some global and hurricane models show it recurving, others bring it over Jamaica.
  And if this isn't enough, there's a disturbance off the coast of the Carolinas that bears watching as this front passes. 

7-5  Tropical Depression 2 formed today.  Here's a brief look at it and the surrounding environment
Its currently very tiny, with good vorticity, low shear, but little divergence aloft and surrounded by dry air.

Low shear
Dry air
 NHC also noted that the water temps aren't favorable   Cooler than normal in Hurricane Alley

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Tropical dump page

John and Ileana

GFS Temps