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Sunday, September 25, 2016

Tropics 1st week of October

Still at the end of their runs, but the EPS and GFS are showing a hurricane in the Carribean/Gulf during the 1st week of October.  Last four runs of GFS all put Jamaica in play.
12z yesterday - brushes S coast of Jamaica the 4th, hits Yucatan on the 6th then goes south of TX
18z yesterday - hits W Jamaica on the 2nd, W Cuba on the 4th, Fl Panhandle on the 7th
0z today - brushes SW Jamaica on the 3rd W tip of Cuba the 5th, FL Panhandle the 8th
6z today  hits W Jamaica on the 2nd, central Cuba the 4th, Keys on the 5th, rides up the W coast of FL the 5th to 7th.

EPS Control
12z yesterday  - skirts northern S AMerica, rides up Central america coast, hits Yucatan and Mexico
0z today hits E Jamaica the 5th, E Cuba 6th, Bahamas 7th and rides up E Coast brushing OBX the 8th and ACK the 9th.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

September winter forecast update

9-14

Scrap what I predicted earlier.  La Nina is no longer forecast and instead a negative neutral signal is.  The only strong Nino to neutral winter we had in the last 50 years was 1983.  The good news is that the 83-84 winter produced fairly average amt of snow with most of CT and HV getting 40-50 inches.  Specifically - BDL at 44; DXR at 47; POU at 43.  The winter started off wild with 9 inches of rain in Danbury and 7 inches of snow.  All stations had a colder than normal December with DXR having a low of -2 and high of 55.  January was also cold, with BDL reporting a -21 but POU only -6. All stations had double digit snow. February warmed up and lacked snow - New Haven and NYC got 5", which is more than the inland stations.  Temps were 4-5 above normal. Lastly March swung back hard with temps 6-7 below normal across the area and DXR with 19" and POU reporting around 26".

Based on this analog, the current trend of warmer temps and our current drought, I'm going to go with temps cooler than normal for 3 of the 4 months, with one month -4-6 and one month +5-7 and two close to normal.  Precip 10-15%below normal (as opposed to the 35% defecit we are at now) - this factors in the moisture content.  I believe we will be in the 35-45 inch range for snow, but will also struggle with precip types more often.

Next step - I want to check ocean temps compared to 83 and the teleconnections.  See if those are far off.  Then october storm tracks and snow cover.

Teleconnections - '83 JAS period was positive NAO JA, neg S.  1.19 1.61 -1.12.  We have been negative overall so far  -1.76 -1.65.    NAO went neutral + OND 0.65 -0.98 0.29 and positive JFM 
1.66   0.72  -0.37.
AO spent most of its time in + territory except deep neg in March. 
0.131  1.098  0.167  1.369 -0.688  0.186/ 0.905 -0.303 -2.386
 
 

Friday, September 2, 2016

Hermine round two

9-8 - Hermine finally exited the area in a small swirl of clouds and sprinkles northeast over Cape Cod.  Most winds were gusts into the 30's here in CT, with some 40mph+ gusts over the islands, montauk, etc.  It did rain, but nothing notable. It did end up cloudy and breezy for the most part.  Just a fascinating storm to watch swirling off just south of LI for days. 

9-5  Hermine ended up more east than any model predicted, sparing NJ from its worst, but moving tropical storm warnings up to SNE.  Sunday was a beautiful day, which wasn't unexpected here, but was unexpected along the NJ shore.  Today is more milky blue sky to overcast.  Cloudy at the shore per   Ocean City NJ Beach cams, Seaside heights beach cam.  Beaches look in pretty good shape at Ship bottom and Beach Haven, though the jetties are showing again.  beach haven cam

Storm should meander as predicted in the area, though not as strong as it never regained tropical characteristics.  The persistent E to NE fetch should still trouble NJ and the areas along the sound, but no longer be devastating.  The worst part should have been last night into this morning. 

9-2

Hermine should emerge over water in the next 24 hrs.  Once the trough in front lifts out, the high sets in overhead, the storm will be trapped.  There will also be a trough cutting off to its west, drawing it closer into shore.  Here are some depictions as to what may happen.

NAM gusts
UKMET 12z
JMA 6z
Euro
IMHO the Euro is the worst case scenario. These are 70-90 mph gusts hitting the NJ shore.  The next frame has 110mph gusts over the water.  Here's the surface map for hr 60 - slp is at 988mb which is high for these winds.
GFS is more realistic with its winds - up to 70mph along the immediate shore.  Keep in minds these are showing in knots.
Wrf-nmm at 48hrs.
wrf-arw 48hrs

 Then theres the crazy cmc
The GFDL at its worst time with sustained 64kt (hurricane level) winds on NJ coast.
GFDL
Lastly the Hwrf, which is the safest solution for the most people, even though it too goes to a 79kt max wind.
Wavewatch...24-27 foot swells near shore, 12 onshore.