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Saturday, June 11, 2016

Watch SE Coast June 18th-26th

6-21  LP did form, but it looks like its also with an upper low.  NWS has it at 1008mb as of this morning, but it looked better last night.  Its currently between a ridge and approaching cold front.

Meanwhile TD 4 did actually form and made it to TS Danielle, the earliest 4th storm in history.  It moved WSW over Mexico. Danielle peaked at 45mph and 1007mb.  12 inches of rain was expected.
The N Caribbean remains juicy though and there is another cold front moving into the area today/tomorrow. 

6-17 - still there, a little weaker on the euro today.  The GFS has a lot of potential in days 8-15including Gulf Action near NOLA.

6-16  Different position, still out there though. Low heads off the coast, probably becomes warm core as its cut off from baroclinic forces, then heads briefly NW before heading out to sea - per Euro.  Here are peak gusts.  Surface, 925 and 850 are warmer around the storm, indicating warm core as well. 

6-11  Todays EPS run shows the SE coast getting juiced up around the 18th with an odd LP descending into that area.   As weak HP also descends, almost as a back door, the cold front moves off producing some spin in that juicy area on the 19th. 
It lingers, not strengthening much through the 21st.  You can see a cold front heading over the lakes at this time as well.  Position of the ridge is favorable

As the cold front approaches, the storm gains some incentive.
As it passes, it starts to bomb.
Definitely warm core by the 25th and heading up the coast.
Resulting in this image....
Thats a 980 LP, winds 50mph.
So this is early, 10 days out.  Pattern favors in close development and cold fronts are likely to spin up storms.  So I think there will be at least eyes on this area through the third week in June.  Its track is up for grabs - it could just spin up and head east.

0z GFS also has the initial LP descend into the Mid Atlantic, where it reforms off the coast and heads east.






Wednesday, June 8, 2016

La Nina and winter

Some free time while eating lunch showed that the El Nino of 15/16 is over. 
La Nina is likely (>75%) to be driving this winter's weather.   Looks like its heading to -1 or so which is not as great a dip as 1998-1999, 2010-2011 or 2007-2008, which were -1.3 to -1.4. 
 
98-99 is intriguing as it came off a record Nino.  It dropped quickly with only  a few months in neutral.  It stayed as a Nina from JJA 98 to FMA of 01.  Not sure this Nina will be as sticky.  07-08 pre Nina had 6 months of neutral.  2010 pre Nina had 2 months of neutral, which is more likely.  1995-96 is also interesting as the nina only went down to .09 and .1 but didn't have a strong Nino before it.  

95-96 was the most brutal winter in my life with record 120+ inches of snow in Danbury. Due to the lack of a strong nino ahead of it, and my belief that Nina will be a little deeper, I'm going weigh that the least, thought its on the board.  I'm also not going to go back much further in history due to the current global temps being so high. Temp dept was about -2.

98-98 BDL DJFM temp departures were  +5, -.3, +2, +.6.  Snow total was nearly 10" FOR THE SEASON.   

2007-2008 DXR DJFM temps were -2, +2.7, -1.3, -1.4 with 27 inches of snow.
2010-2011 DXR DJFM temps were -5, -6, -3 and -1.6 with 75+" of snow.

So there are inconsistent La Nina winters.  Sticking with last four weighing at 10%, 25%, 25% and 40% chronologically, the snowfalls are 12"+3"+7"+30" for a total 52" during DJFM.  Temps shouldn't be long term brutal, but average 2-3 below normal.

Here is what the typical Jan-March looks like with La Nina





Thursday, June 2, 2016

Gulf development first week of June

6-7 TS Colin peaked at 50mph before landfall in the big bend of FL around 11pm 6/6.  Pressure at landfall 1002.  Not very impressive circulation and winds may have been generous.  Winds were mainly to the SE and widespread out to 230 miles.  Winds picked up as it moved out along the SC/NC coasts, to 60mph and it lost its tropical characteristics.  NHC discontinued coverage at 5pm 6/7.

6-5  TS Colin has formed - looks pretty straightforward.   Fast moving, NE direction over N FL.  GFDL looks suspicious in its strength, considering its speed.  This is after it passes FL.   Otherwise, its a moderate TS to Cat one hurricane.




TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

6-2  GFS and Euro onto gulf system developing, heading across FL on the 7th and out to sea.

 https://i.imgur.com/8T1Lkr5.png
Euro



GFS
NHC hasn't put any blobs out on the map for formation yet, but Beven has mentioned potential in his tropical outlook today.



6-1  Potential for Gulf development seen on GFS.   Euro conditions are ripe, but doesn't have anything substantial yet.