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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

2-18

2-19  Ended up with 6" here.  Most areas in the PHL to BOS received between 4-6" with NE NJ getting a 9" report.  Ridgefield also reported 8" NWS Upton snow totals

Out of Mt Holly there was a report in Hunterdon Cty of 9", with many other reports in Morris, Warren and Northampton of 8".  Still the average would be around 6.

Areas of S NJ, LI, NYC received anywhere from 1-4", mixing was an issue on the island along the coasts. 

Overall pretty good call.


2-16 - no time today. I like 3-6 inches widespread PHL to BOS - mixing will make it interesting near the coast though.

2-15  Snow mounds on the property just about gone...will be overnight.

Pretty high confidence in a 3-6 inch snow here in N Fairfield Cty.  Really for most of CT.  Details as to whether its 3 or 6 still being ironed out.  Its fast moving, not too much qpf involved.

GFS is useless with this one.  Each run is something different.

Latest shows this for snow - the least of the models
Not to be outdone by the CMC and its snow trend, but at least its linear.
Icon is also showing less snow as the day progressed.
But at least it jives with its trend of bringing the low pressure flatter, more south
On the other hand is the NAM/Euro combo (ukmet too, but no maps) showing a bit stronger and further north.
And euro

NAVGEM back to normal


So there's really not much more to add here.  Systems are coming through a split stream, timing is everything.  All models showing snow for our area.


2-14 As the last post suggested, there is a snow threat for SNE south to VA for the 18th.

This is the basic setup - split stream coming together and heading east.  Now will the two vort maxes phase, line up or will the #2 speed up and kick #1 out.  Lately, the trailing northern stream energy has trended slower and deeper, so I'm aboard the storm wagon now.

Temps - surface temps aren't that great. Though the contrast is.  These temps cool in SNJ as the snow falls.  Not so  much in LI though.

But the 850 temps look great
As do 925.  
Leads to the following snow map
Thats all the euro.  UKIE is pretty far north 


as is NAVGEM which is a red flag

CMC is also on board.
as is icon which is also a little more north


Thursday, February 8, 2018

2/8 to 2/15 - Warm and Wet

2-10  still not much in next 10 days.  Watching the 15-18th period.  EPS has the 18th.

 Euro operational is further south

 and GFS says no snow for almost the entire country next 10 days




2-8  The next period of weather is warmer and stormy.  We had a period as mentioned in prior posts that a number of systems will come through - 5 during the next week.  They are mostly weak, strung out and sideswipers.
But they also make it fairly miserable.  When I lead with warm, its warm enough not to snow.  Wet means this.
GFS precip 8th to 15th

As the storm on the 15th passes to our north, it sets up for what might be our next snowstorm.  Nice high coming in behind it, over the advancing storm.  We'll see where the cold front ends up, but until then it should be either wet or just a few flakes.  

Monday, February 5, 2018

2-7


2-7
Snow moved in around 8am in WCT, 8:30 here - check
Sleet mixed in around 11am - check
Freezing rain took over around 1pm - checkish.
Rain took over at 4pm - check
Will it make it to 47 by 7pm?
Nope - Made it to 34 at 0z. 13 degrees less than what the Nam and GEM had, 11 degrees less than the RGEM and 10 degrees less than the SREF/Nam3k.  GFS had 36 and Euro 35. 
What didn't happen were the snow totals - it just didn't thump like many thought.


2-6  Looking for the following to happen.

Precip moves into W CT around 7-8am. Its snow.  Temp should be in the lower 20's.  A lot with this storm will depend on where we start with temps.
 Around 11 snow transitions to sleet starting from the coast moving north. 
Around noon sleet becomes freezing rain for the coast, then moving north.
Around 2pm its freezing rain in Newtown, and most areas north of the Merrit.

What happens next depends on the surface temps.  Modeling has temps at 6pm anywhere from 34 degrees to 47 degrees in Northern Fairfield County.  If the cold air leaves early, we could go to rain by 3pm.  If it hangs around, 34 may be too high until precip lightens up.  If things go right, the 7-8 rush hour should be ok in almost all the state, with snow just starting. Then the afternoon rush 4 onward should also be alright with plain rain.

 I like 1-3 inches south of I84 with 3-6 inches as you move further north in the state. This includes most of Westchester/NNE NJ.  Maybe a coating in NYC.  Sussex County maybe 4-6.  Rest of NNJ 2-4. 

Here is Uptons forecast.  I'm a little less snow and more ice than they are.

The variables again are:  how fast does the precip come in?  Is the column saturated when it does or does it snow aloft for hours first?  When does the cold air become dislodged at the surface?  Is the precip basically over by the time temps rise?  Light winds from the east won't do it - have to wait for strong southerlies. This is from 9am.
This is from 1pm
And this is the temp. 
Doesn't look right. Particularly if the wet bulb is 24
This is the snow map with Kuchera from pivotal
vs others







2-5

Started this one late, but have been watching.  Situation is marginal in the tri state.  Would like to see it colder to start.  This storm is a bit different than the last one, as winds will be starting from the north, to northeast, to east as the system approaches.  This will keep the colder air in inland sections longer than if they were southerly for 24 hours before like this past storm.

Track has been narrowed down to heading right over us.  This typically brings a mix, and the amount of snow depends on how long the temps cooperate.  Many times, the precip runs ahead of what is modeled, cools the column more, and results in front loaded snow, an hour or two of transition, then some drizzle.   This is what the 18z NAM 3k is showing.
The reason for the mix isn't surface temps, but temps aloft.  Follow the 0c line and see where the temp crosses it. Its not by much, but enough.  This looks more like sleet but Pivotal shows the ice.

And the snow ex sleet map from pivotal
Why focus on the 3k?  Its the most interesting.  All other models also have the idea of front end snow, mostly resulting in 2" for N Fairfield County and more as you go north.  Here is a sample:
GFS


Icon



CMC

There hasn't been much movement in tracks today either.  All LPs seem to pass between Pou and ISP.  So its a nice cluster.  Energy is ashore now.  0z run will have samples.  If there is a change, it will show up soon.