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Monday, November 28, 2016

Hello Winter!

12-1 The battle to end fall and start winter is on.  The 5th through 7th have multiple opportunities but models keep fighting.  Looks like it will be cold enough, so any over running moisture that makes it in should start as snow, but how much makes it is a big question.   Then the 8th and 9th a BIG storm moves through the lakes and COLD follows behind it.  We get rain, possibly ending as snow as the front comes through.   Then both GFS and EURO show trailers coming behind bringing some snow.   So its a good time to start following winter weather. 

11-30 evening   12z EPS Control with most of the country covered, 12-18" covering large portion of Northeast


11-30  Today's 0z run is in between the two.


11-29  Todays 12z run a bit less ambitious


11-28  Hello Mr Winter!  Below is the 10 day snow on ground map from the 12z Euro today.  Yes, its just one run and its 10 days out, but its rather impressive.  Almost every state in the Continental US has some snow (LA,MS, AL DE and FL don't).

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Holy boring weather....drought


11/27  On the drought - below is todays 18z gfs run with just under 2" through 11/30 which gets us close to normal.
After that it looks like we will be seeing more activity.   12z run has the following opps
12/7 
12/9
12/12
With euro showing 12/5
If you split the difference on the 12/5-6 storm, there is something to watch.



11/23 - looking at some light precip for the 24th to 26th period.  Less than .25". Temps are hovering around freezing at most layers, though recent trends have been to warm the surface.  Nothing of note in the long range either.  Storms appear to want to cut to the lakes, but they do bring some much needed rain.  Below is the EPS control for precip in the next 15 days.  Its all rain, but a noreaster on the 5th is close.
GFS from 6z today is also showing a few inches of rain in the next two weeks.  Mostly from moisture ahead of a cutter on the 30th/1st.
I'd like to get 4" of rain into the ground before it freezes.




11/20 - we did get a cold front through with some gusty winds and .55" of rain overnight.  Cloudy, with flurries and sprinkles throughout the day today.  Looking ahead, still rather boring, though below normal temps for the next few days.  I hesitate to call a pattern change, but in looking forward, temps are more below normal than above.   Keep in mind normal highs for late November are in the mid 40's.  DXR is reporting 2.18" of rain for November so far, or 48%.  Things look a little brighter at the end of the month for some rain, and ultimately a pattern change as storms run at us, with a bit more juice. 

11/15 - todays mini coastal overperfomed bigly. Just over 1" of rain imby.  Monday-Tuesday next week still looking messy - euro only with .2" precip, but cold enough to snow aloft.  GFS 18z showing similar precip and pattern.  However GFS also shows a nice snowstorm on Thanksgiving
12z euro precip


11/13   Mini coastal still on track.  Will get some rain on Tues, but is it .1 or .5"?  Does it really matter? We need 2" by tomorrow to be normal for the month.  GFS has interesting set up for the 21st-23rd, not on Euro.

11/12    Little coastal storm brushes coast per Euro, brings a little rain, but nowhere near what we need.  So far we've had .04 inches of rain for November at Danbury.  Normal is over 4".  This map brings us to the 22nd.
Euro operational
This one goes out to the 27th...even worse.

Euro ensemble control
GFS is only slightly better, still would end the month with less than an inch of rain.
At least it cools off per GFS Ensembles 5 day anomaly



11/9  18z gfs precip to the 25th. 


11/7 - Then there is this.... 5-6 inches of rain in CT.  Mostly from a storm that is still ongoing at hr 240.

vs. the GFS



11/5 Drought continues, some colder air comes in and out.  Still waiting for that cold air to lock in, but models keep pushing it off.  Until we get some storms, its booorrring precip wise and average temp wise.

12z Euro

sources:  Accuweather pro and www.tropicaltidbits.com


12z gfs

Monday, October 24, 2016

First Flakes

10/27 - Virga did its dirty work.  Radar showed snow returns for hours before flakes finally fell around 745 or so.  Snow also reported in Danbury.



10/26

GFS and NAM wavering on precip amounts.  Latest 6z NAM is back up to an inch.  The GFS went from .8 to .6 to .48 at 0z back to .8 at 6z.  Euro has gone from .77 to .9 to 1.0    This morning is lower than modeled.  Example:  Euro 10-26 0z run has the low temp at DXR at 36.9, GFS at 32.6 NAM 33.8 with actual low at 27. 950-700 temps are below 0 until 18z.   Biggest preventer of flakes is the time of the arrival of the moisture and if virga eats away at it. 
 Below is Euro snow map still showing accumulation.


10/25   Eye issues today, not a lot of computer work going on.  Overnights Euro snow map


10/24 afternoon

Euro now moved us south with the snow map



10/24   First flakes for CT showing up on the 0 and 6z gfs runs this morning.  Just mood snow, shouldn't be any accumulation, despite depiction below. If any, on grassy surfaces, but lets watch how cold it gets Wed night. 




Euro has a rainier solution for the Danbury area. As does CMC.
NAM has flakes though.