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Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Jan 27-30

1-18  Long range models have had a change of air mass pegged for this time period, preceded with a big "warmer" storm.  Time to take a closer look now that we're ten days out.

12z Euro
6z GFS para
0z gfs para
12z gfs
18z gfs
GFS ens


So the Euro is a Miller A, big storm coming up from the Gulf.  The GFS has a cutter on the 25th to 27th which leads to a clipper or Miller B as portrayed above.   Prior to today's runs, the Euro and GFS had all kinds of kooky solutions with storms going northwest, swirling around, stalling.  It looked really odd.  Today its straightening out.  Some of the storms going through the lakes are coming east.   I like the Euro run better than the gfs, though the ensemble doesn't support the idea of a Miller A.



Monday, January 9, 2017

Jan 15-16

1-14 -
 Ended up with an inch!


Afternoon Smells and feels like snow.  Could get a dusting based on radar but the HRRR has it all heading SE and missing


1-12  Euro still has very little north of PHL.  GFS as well.  NAM is further north, which is usual.  GFS Parallel is similar to the NAM which is odd.  UKMET is just rolling in.  CMC is still south of the area, but north of where the previous run was.







1-11   Euro showing the front sagging to VA and the waves moving along there. The EPS spreads some precip our way, but not enough to cover the ground again.  Long range EPS has no snow through the 28th.

GFS 0z and 6z shows similar to Euro - waves moving south of the R/S line over VA with a bit of precip nicking the tristate.  No other snow through the 27th. 

Canadian shows no snow through 10 days.

GFS para is the only model with snow for us.  JMA does hint at it.


1-9  This mornings low was around -4.  Coldest of the year. For this week coming up, we have a warm front coming through which may provide some snow or ice, but not a lot.  We have a Great Lakes cutter providing that warm front, followed by a clipper that meets some energy from the south and heads up west of NY which provides another warm front, then a cold front after it passes.  That cold front hangs and where that happens determines what happens next as waves progress along the front.

Canadian showing a moderate snow event.  Precip map shows what has fallen prior to the 850 temp map below it.  So for most of the tristate north of Trenton we should see 2-4 inches of snow.

Euro operational is a tad warmer, but heavier precip, so roughly the same result, perhaps closer to 4".  Surface temps are near or below freezing during this time.  Euro ensembles are a bit colder and drier.

GFS is colder and drier with the front a bit south

Friday, December 30, 2016

Jan 6-9

1-8  We ended up with 6.5" wiped, just outside the range.  The western extent was a bit back from I95 but the overall idea was correct. VA Beach and Raleigh had rain/sleet which kept their numbers down, but overall a fairly accurate forecast relative to what was publicized. 



1-7 Most models overnight stayed to course.  NAM decreased a bit on the 6z run but bumped back up at 12z.  Euro had .31 up from .23 at 12z.  GFS had .19 up from its  12z forecast of .06.   NAM 40k has .4 for OXC which should be 6".
Should note that Raleigh and VA Beach busted due to mixing.

Here is the nam 4k with 10:1 ratios.  We should be in the 15 or 17:1 ratios though.
HRRR is showing a westward juicier trend though
Here is the 10am sounding from the NAM -huge snow growth zone


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 1-6 - First wave surprised with 2" of snow here.
Saturday's storm still isn't resolved.  Euro shifted west with the precip at 0z
12z 1-5

0z 1-6
NAM after shifting west all day yesterday,


 went east at 6z.
Heck one run of the 3knam was bezonkers yesterday.
RGEM and CMC continued west overnight, with the RGEM losing some precip in the first wave on its 6z run.
SREF plume yesterday  for Oxford was 3 at 3z, 4 at 9z, 5.5 at 15z and 9 at 21z.  These are totals between the two waves with an inch falling on the first.  The 3z today  was 8" and 9z was down to 4".
GFS remains the only model showing no snow for Northern Fairfield County.
12z GFS shifts west
12z CMC shifts west

12z GFS ens now bring precip into area as well

12z Euro further west


I like 0-3 inches north or west of I95 from DC to Bridgeport, 3 inches closer to 95. 3-6 inches I95 to the coast in NJ, LI, SE CT. 6-10 RI, SE Mass/CCod, Delmarva (maybe 3 further NW in DE). 8-12 Raleigh back to Greensboro and Charlotte, as well as most of VA west of Richmond and east of 81. 8-12 and maybe some higher amts in the Tidewater. NAM trended east today after pushing west yesterday and unloading up to a foot here. GFS, which gave my area nada for all its runs, now is giving 2-3". Euro, CMC and UKIE trended west today. Almost all in alignment. If they hold like this through tonite, my guess here should be about right. But we all know these can still shift east again.

18z GFS even further west.


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1-5 NAM comes to bat
GFS ignores it for our area - the only precip is from tonites flurry.



1-4 - Euro still more nw
12z 1-3
0z 1-4


EPS showing nice trend
 GFS is stubborn, but minutely improving




1-3  Early morning - still two wave system along front.
Euro took good move northwest
 Ukie came in with both waves hitting benchmark
 Closer look at UKMEts second wave off VA/NC

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

1-2  Not going to over think this one.  Just going to look at precip map trends - Euro 0z and 12z
Euro 0z

Euro 12z
 GFS 0z and 12z.  We are going the wrong way.

GFS 0z

GFS 12z
The 0z run would have looked like this, but more likely higher ratios up by CT

Instead the 12z is astonishing
A closer look via Pivotal Weather  - 41" in the bright orange on the VA/NC border




1-1
Some scenes from todays models....Euro continues its message of a front stalling to our south and some waves moving up.  But seems to no longer hold that energy back.  Result is a couple inches of snow.


GFS..I'm not really sure what to think.  Coastal nearby to start
 Then nothing
 Back to coastal slider
 Then a clipper
 Then a clipper and coastal secondary
 and throw a subtropical storm or two on top of it.
The GFS Para 6z Run has a clipper coming through on the 8th and the 0z run has a clipper on the 10th.
CMC has two coastals brushing us on the 6th and 7th, then what looks to be a cutter on the 12th.
UKMET has nothing.
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12-30  As noted in the 12-29 post, there is a front stalling with some waves moving along.  12z runs of the GFS and Euro both had storms but evolving differently.  GFS had a two wave strung out storm on Jan 6. 

Euro holds back energy in the SW and concentrates it into the second wave.


CMC demonstrates the two waves the best.

So its something to watch.  I don't see a huge press from the north to make this go out to sea, at this point.  And I don't see why it wouldn't trend north with the SE ridge being persistent this year.    The timing of the waves and how the two pieces of energy at 500mb will likely determine.  They meet earlier, its a cutter, they separate, one may go NW of us, the other out to sea.