|ukmet 12z mslp 850|
GFS printouts 12z
12Z NOV24 * - APPROXIMATED
2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR
TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ
(C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN)
WED 12Z 26-NOV 2.9 1.1 130 5212 03008 SN 0.00 0.00
WED 18Z 26-NOV 0.8 -3.0 129 801 01010 SN 0.55 0.40
THU 00Z 27-NOV 0.7 -3.7 129 801 35012 SN 0.31 0.63
THU 06Z 27-NOV 0.1 -4.7 129 500 32008 SN 0.07 0.69
THU 12Z 27-NOV -0.7 -6.4 129 278 30005 SN 0.01 0.69
THU 18Z 27-NOV 0.5 -7.1 128 634 31008 SN 0.00 0.69
PRESS LEVEL SFC 1000 925 850 700 600 500 400 300 200
WED 12Z 26-NOV 4 3 -1 1 -9 -8 -12 -22 -36 -60
WED 18Z 26-NOV 3 1 -2 -3 -8 -6 -12 -22 -34 -58
THU 00Z 27-NOV 2 1 -2 -4 -8 -11 -20 -24 -34 -54
THU 06Z 27-NOV 2 0 -2 -5 -12 -19 -25 -33 -39 -50
THU 12Z 27-NOV 1 0 -3 -6 -14 -22 -30 -40 -43 -47
THU 18Z 27-NOV 3 0 -4 -7 -15 -23 -32 -43 -45 -47
11-24 morning - Winter Storm Watch in effect for 4-8 inches. GFS runs cold and with over .9" qpf. Euro has mostly snow, with a mix at 0z thurs with total qpf of 1.26. GFS all snow, accumulations iffy as surface is above freezing for some of it, but it should come down hard enough for 5:1 ratios then 10:1 ratios as colder air enters the column. NAM is still east of the benchmark, but has all the temps at or below freezing for DXR through the event. Nam precip in CT goes from .5-.75 to 1-1.25" west to east, but the snow maps only showing 3-6 inches.
Euro moves east 100 miles. LP now passing east of LI, still within the Benchmark
Euro printout looks like its mostly snow, though surface temps are a little warm. I don't always believe the surface temps on the Euro as whenever there is a heavier precip event, the temps usually get to 32-33 and it accumulates. Total qpf 1.26. Looking at temps in the 850-500mb layers, there is one time at 0z that the 700mb temps are over 0. So there could be a good amount of sleet during that time period.
2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR
TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ
(C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES
WED 12Z 26-NOV 3.7 -1.2 130 1702 0300 0.02
WED 18Z 26-NOV 1.7 -2.6 130 713 04010 0.34
THU 00Z 27-NOV 1.2 -2.7 129 11049 0201 0.48
THU 06Z 27-NOV 0.4 -6.4 128 404 34013 0.32
THU 12Z 27-NOV -1.9 -5.3 128 197 30009 0.10
GFS 0z shows nice storm at 72 hrs. Its printout is colder at the surface and at 850mb. Total qpf for dxr of .96. Snow map with 8-10 inches.
|18z GFS at 06z Thurs|
12z Euro starts off SC at 7am with 1008 low, looks like it goes inside OBX, off Delmarva as 1000mb low at 7pm, crosses ISP as 992 low at 1am. 988 low off Portsmouth at 7am. So only 20mb drop for the Euro. Euro still puts out 12-18 inches though, which based on the track does not seem right as the 850s are too warm. Meanwhile the Euro ens control is a benchmark storm with 10-12" legit. Euro ens mean is in between.
|Euro at 6z Thurs. Center over LI -warm 850s|
12z CMC still way offshore, brushing the coast with snow, RGEM has rain south of NYC with some snow N of NYC, but little. 12z JMA still way offshore. GFS.25 parallel is way offshore. NAM way off shore, but brushes us.
NWS has an interesting approach - their forecast
- Wednesday Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
- Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE REGION THIS STORM WILL TRACK. A COMBINATION OF SNOW...RAIN...AND WIND ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW AND RAIN AMOUNTS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO AREA BY THE TIME THE STORM WINDS DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON POTENTIAL STORM RELATED HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
0z gfs forms 1012 low off SC 12z Wed, light precip enters NY metro 15z, 1008 lp goes off OBX 125 miles east or so by 18z and snow is falling moderately. 0z Thurs storm center is just south of BM east of NJ, 6z and still 1008 225 miles east of Cape Cod, snow is tapering off in NY metro. QPF below - most is snow as surface temps inland are under 0c and very close until the immediate coast. 3-6 inches generally in the areas shown getting qpf below.
Euro meanwhile shifts further west, with the low going inside OBX, right off ACY and 992 over eastern LI and 984 into Gulf of ME. 850 line backs for some of the storm to about Rt 8 in CT and Cross ISL Pky in NY. Brings rain to most of CT, MA and all of RI for some of the heaviest parts of the storm. Also interesting is that the 700mb 0 degree line is actually further north/west than the 850 and 925 lines, indicating sleet. Surface temps are above freezing for most of the area, but the Euro snow map still lays down 12-16"
18z DGEX brushes CT East and Jersey shore
18z GFS moves further west. GFS.25 is not buying it yet. The parallel gfs keeps the GL low strong and separate from the coastal. It does bring some snow to the Cape.
|18z GFS mslp 850|
|18z gfs snow|
12z Euro seems to have moved a bit further west, but same result as 0z. Ensembles are a bit east, but close enough to support the idea of a storm.
0z Euro and UKMEt showing a solid storm for the EC. 850 and 925 temps are cold. Surface temps still marginal, but with values seen on the 700mb Vert velocity, there should be heavy enough snow to convert the surface to at or below freezing.
|Vertical Velocity showing heavy snow|
|Snow accumulation on Thanksgiving|
|mslp and 850 Wed evening|
|UKMET at hr 120|
CMC and JMA still not showing anything close to the coast. NAVGEM is between 12z GFS and Euro, brushing us.
0z GFS brushes us with some snow, but is further off the coast. 6z is offshore and is less enthusiastic about forming a low. Same with 12z. GFS ensembles showing some love for the Euro. GFS .25 a little stronger of a low, but still offshore.
So, in summary Euro/UKMET (strong storm) vs. GFS/CMC/JMA (offshore) with DGEX/NAVGEM in between.
11-21 evening . 18z GFS is close to this mornings Euro solution. Hmmm..
18z DGEX still has nothin, JMA has a little snow along the coast at hr 144.
11-21 Models all over the place, most have had a front come through Wednesday. Once in a while a wave would be seen either coming through the Lakes or off the coast. Todays Euro is interesting though. Morning run had snow Wed into Thurs. Waiting for 12z graphics, but that run has a cut off upper low, stacked over a 995 surface low on Thurs nite/Fri Morn with it bombing to 980 offshore. GFS .25 also has storm, but OP GFS does not. Still too early to look at ensembles. GGEM is offshore, GFS offshore, DGEX offshore.
12z run has a weaker storm Wed into Thurs, more offshore. Focus on that run has an upper low meet a surface low off OBX, which then meanders a while in that area before heading ENE to a 40/65 position E of the benchmark as a 970 low.