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Saturday, September 16, 2017


9-18  Maria was a 90mph 972mb hurricane at the 2am advisory today.  As I type she is hitting Dominica at 160mph and 924mb.
Courtesy of MJ!

After Dominca, its off to Puerto Rico.  NHS and GFS Ensembles have it just passing to the north, but others have it hitting dead on, including the current forecast

GFS has it nearly hitting NC
Euro has a strange dance.

9-16  Starting coverage on what should be Maria.  Lee should fizzle out in the central atlantic. Maria could form any moment.

Here are some early landfall forecasts from the models that go that far out.


CMC 12z
CMC 0z
GFS 12z
GFS 0z

Sunday, September 10, 2017



Jose continues offshore

some WU stations in the area of Jose (sustain/gust)

Peconic Bay winds 30mph gusting to 40
Block Island with winds of 40mph gusting to 45
Reeves Beach (LI) 39w, 40g
Montauk Lighthouse 45w, 51g (ignore other winds, not likely)
Lagoon Pond Vineyard Haven 47s/53g
Siasconset (ACK) 32s/44g
ACK Airport 33s/42g
Nobska Point Woods Hole 38s/42g

Buoy 44008 33kts/47kts 17ft waves
My closest station to work Crisculo park is blowing between 25mph and 30mph

Jose's coordinates at 8am were 36.3/71.6.  8pm was 37.5/71.2.  75 nautical miles in 12 hours.  Same pace as previous 12 hours.  We got .23 inches of rain.
Some WU observations as of 11am.

FFire Island Pines with 31mph winds and 39mph gust

Montauk Lighthouse with 39mph winds and 43mph gust

Gilgo Beach, LI 38mph winds, gust to 44

Sedge Island (IBSP/LBI) 37mph with 41mph gusts

Beach Haven with 47mph winds, 58mph gusts. I don't remember seeing the GFS coming in with gusts that high.

Wildwood witn 41mph wind 47gusts

Steelman Bay Brigantine 47mph with 52mph gusts

Lewes Beach 31mph with 39mph gusts

From 5pm to 5am, center of Jose went from 34.8N/71.1W to 36N/71.3W, which is 73 Nautical miles, at an average speed of 6kts.

9-18  All models have it as an out to sea storm.  Some still looping back into land, but others just spin out.  Either way, Jose is barely surviving.  Here is tonight's satellite - lost the circulation at sunset.

9-16  GFS continues to trend east since 12z yesterday.

 Euro also went east, but had winds a bit stronger near the coast

9-15  Max winds show the path, and let us know it won't be too serious.

6z GFS

0z GFS
12z 9-14

0z 9-15

Navgem, typically the furthest east  model continues to hit NJ

Even the GFS ensemble mean is hitting NJ.

9-14  Some trends, towards the west - GEFS ensembles and Hurricane models both went well west today.  Gonna want to keep an eye on this.

9-13  Interesting runs.  GFS started with a hit
0z GFS
But then went offshore for the rest of the day
18z gfs
Euro got nasty in the NYC area - here's a look at the winds.

The UKMET and JMA which had insisted on a FL landfall have shifted in our direction
JMA comes pretty close to the SNE before heading east.
And the NAVGEM is still troubling.
The bottom line is that a semi tropical hybrid noreaster will be nearby. Timing and exact track still need to be ironed out.  Euro is super concerning, as is NAVGEM being so close.  UKMET is shifting, but will it shift all the way out to sea?  JMA shifted north before the eastern kick(yesterday was at OBX, today in the pocket).

Note I didn't bother with the CMC today. It spins it off ACK, hitting it 0z run and missing east for the 12z.

But I can't say there is a trend when the euro came west and the NAVGEM hasn't budged.

9-12  0z and 6z gfs runs showed just off the coast, close enough to watch.  The 12z is straightforward out to sea.

Euro still has out to sea
But the UKMET still showing a FL hit

18z run has it hit Newfoundland twice....

And then there is the crazy canadian

9-11  0z runs.  Not captured is the remnants of Irma pump the ridge over Jose trapping it. Then a ridge builds in Irmas upper low as it departs.  Euro less bullish, but GFS has solid ridge with a H blocking to the NE.
0z Euro

0z GFS

Didn't really want to open a post with news of another hurricane, but Jose doesn't seem to want to go away and landfall is within 10 days now. 

Todays 18z GFS run

And 12z run

vs Euro 0z

and the JMA,which did the best with IRMA

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Irma part two... and a bit of Jose

9-10 Landfall

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
910 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017


The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the
lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT.  A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h)
was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.

LOCATION...24.7N 81.5W


9-9Irma settled in along the coast of Cuba and lost a lot of juice.  Latest recon only showing 80kt winds.  But she does appear to be firing back up, so we'll have to see .  Pressure is already down two since the 2pm update.

Models have continued to the west

 with the Euro now scraping along the west coast of FL.  Some maps of the wind effect. 
Gusts near Sarasota

Gusts near landfall

Total gusts

Winds near landfall

9-8  Nam back to normal, not sure what that was about.  Irma "struggles" now with a 155mph ranking a few mph away from Cat 5.  Its heading west to Cuba as you can see in the satellite.  Its waxed and waned on the satelite, victim of Cuba, dry air and ERC.

New tracks targeting W. FL now.  Keep in mind hurricane force winds are likely on both coasts unless this stays offshore of either.
Dynamical models still showing signficant strenghening while intesnity models show weakening.  Irma has lost some oomph today now with winds of 155mph, down from its 185mph peak.  Pressures have remained fairly steady throughout the day.

9-7 post 0z nam run.  NAM showing it going up to NC and interacting with a cut off low.  really weird.  Could hit Delmarva, NJ or LI on this run.

Collection of photos from the Atlantic Photos from St Martin - the Atlantic

A quick note on Jose - its up to 150mph, likely going to cat 5.  Official forecast is to weaken, which is what they kept doing with Irma.No threat to US as of yet.
The leewards are at risk with this one.  The PM there said they would literally remove every person from Barbuda if this looked like it would go there.  Right now, it looks like a close call, but a miss.  As we've seen with Irma, that can easily change.

And Katia is spinning in Campeche at 105mph, and expected to strengthen before landfall.  We could have 3 major hurricanes in the basis at the same time.

9-7  Busy day at work so some catch up...

Irma still a 175mph hurricane, 8pm report at 919mb.  Recon since not finding much wind and pressures are up, but very likely an eyewall replacement happening as seen on the mimic. The

Models have come to an agreement, and its not good.  Keys and the S or SE tip of Fl will get landfall first.  Currently forecast as a cat 5.  Only "good news" is for SC/GA which should see a weakened Irma with these paths.
source Trop Atlantic 

Some landfall winds

And max winds to the hour

Hoping tomorrow brings a weaker Irma, or the models shift east.  Better to have a cat 4 storm hit GA/SC than cat 5 hit Miami.  No offense to GA/SC

Meanwhile Josie and Katia are out there.  Katia should get to 90mph and hit Mexico.  Jose is currently at 120mph and may interact with the northern Leewards, where Irma just hit.