2-21 Thought I'd try to jinx this, but right now it looks as if the next 10 days are warm with a little rain. There will be some cold air from time to time and perhaps one of the storms cutting to the lakes will bring some front end snow if timed right. But overall its a fairly snowless
Highs for this week peak at near 70. Then again over the weekend in the 60s and mid week in the 60's
Saturday, February 11, 2017
2-11 A little more concerned with this one as the hrrr/rap are trending colder. Currently under WWA for 3-6, sleet and ZR. Concern is the cold doesn't leave. Bigger concern to me is the opportunity for some heavier snow coming through before it changes. Here are the vertical velocity at 700mb showing intense upward motion which leads to heavier precip. This is all during the snow phase for areas north of the Merrit.
Monday, February 6, 2017
28 - Evening. NAM Comeback - almost all models have now gone to the 1+ qpf for the area. This is a trend of the NAM - it keeps on strengthening. Upping totals to 8-12. On the record for 9. But really can see us getting up to 15". Above that would be surprising. In complete agreement with NWS on this one. Blizzard conditions likely along shore, possible inland. 2-3"/hr rates fall between 7am and 11am. The reasoning is tons of upward motion as shown on the 700VV Chart. This is for 7am. Literally off the scale.
Meanwhile, heres todays trend for the Nam - slower, stronger.
Most recent snow maps...
I've never seen the RAP put out this much before. Its hard to see but when you mouse over the map it shows N Fairfield with 17"
2-8 The ever shrinking NAM storm.... fears that it weakens and goes flatter still around. But its moving to the Euro solution, which still brings warning level snow. So all is ok. Just not getting over a foot.
2-7 Freezing rain this morning with 2h delay
Thursdays storm is supported by all models, and its snow for the Tristate. Just a matter of how much. NAM continues its furthest NW track, GFS and Euro are outside the BM. Euro had .42 qpf at 0z and .72 at 12z. GFS had .08 at 0z but .57 for 6z and 1.15 for 12z .
|6z NAM (includes some from today in NNE)|
2-6 - A little late in posting what is happening this week.
Tuesday - should it get cold enough tonite, we are looking at some ice/sleet coming in. Temps aloft should not be conducive to snow until you get close to the mass border, and even there it won't be more than an inch or two. However, if we get into the 20s overnight, much of the area will have a hard time raising those ground temps until later, which could lead to some delays.
Wednesday - temps up to 60 in NYC early on. But I'm skeptical on how warm it gets in Newtown and for how long that warmth lasts.
|6z gfs 24hr snow|
|12z NAM has prev snow in MA/NH/VT/ME|
|0z Euro - includes prev snow in NNE|