1-7 First snowstorm

 1-6 - Well it's snowing out.  Pretty much the way described below too.  Had a business conference 1-2 to 1-5 so didn't keep this up but really nothing changed.  There was some movement of the rain snow line and some differences in QPF but we did get our first snowfall.

1-1 - Starting coverage on this developing system that will affect the MA/NE (mid atl/northeast) around the 7th. We started seeing this on the 29th over at Wxsphere.com and it became more serious when we had 3 runs of the GFS in a row AND the Euro AND the Canadian all showing snow in the area on the 30th.

The setup is actually pretty straightforward.  Low crashes into California on the 3rd, exits out NJ on the 7th.  There's a confluence zone to our north which will keep it from cutting. The main concern would be that the storm gets suppressed. The confluence does break right as it goes by, but that would be a major shift.  I'm putting this at a 10% chance it tracks too far north for snow, 60% that it brings snow to the Boston to DC and 30% that it only affects NY south.  

 

Latest run of the Euro does demonstrate why there's still 10% chance that it goes too far north for the MA. Confluence to the north is a little too far ahead and there is some energy behind that can dig in.

Still a little concerned on the track of the low and the cold air which is not around.  It's cold enough for now though. The purple area next to the green is mix.  The purple areas surrounded by blue is heavy snow.

Even with the track being close and the slightly further north jog in the 500mb, we still get a decent amount of snow in the area.