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Monday, October 24, 2016

First Flakes

10/27 - Virga did its dirty work.  Radar showed snow returns for hours before flakes finally fell around 745 or so.  Snow also reported in Danbury.


GFS and NAM wavering on precip amounts.  Latest 6z NAM is back up to an inch.  The GFS went from .8 to .6 to .48 at 0z back to .8 at 6z.  Euro has gone from .77 to .9 to 1.0    This morning is lower than modeled.  Example:  Euro 10-26 0z run has the low temp at DXR at 36.9, GFS at 32.6 NAM 33.8 with actual low at 27. 950-700 temps are below 0 until 18z.   Biggest preventer of flakes is the time of the arrival of the moisture and if virga eats away at it. 
 Below is Euro snow map still showing accumulation.

10/25   Eye issues today, not a lot of computer work going on.  Overnights Euro snow map

10/24 afternoon

Euro now moved us south with the snow map

10/24   First flakes for CT showing up on the 0 and 6z gfs runs this morning.  Just mood snow, shouldn't be any accumulation, despite depiction below. If any, on grassy surfaces, but lets watch how cold it gets Wed night. 

Euro has a rainier solution for the Danbury area. As does CMC.
NAM has flakes though.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Winter update and the "Blob"


I just stumbled upon an additional factor for the winter forecast, which may contradict/influence parts of my forecast.  Below is a close up of the blob.
The blob is formed by a persistent area of high pressure off the Pac NW.  This ridging keeps storms from mixing the water and as a result, the water warms.  The warm water, it is speculated, reinforces the ridge.  Below is a wider view of the Pacific.  The two areas of persistent warm SSTs would suggest that high pressure dominates over those areas, placing the trough between them.  The blue line is not the actual trough, but for discussion sake only. 

Where that blue line ends up influences where the ridge/trough set up over North America. It could end up like this...
...putting the NE in the trough, which would be colder than normal and snowier. Or it could end up like this...
...putting the NE on the ridge side (where we currently are) and it would be warm and dry.

The blob was coined in 2013 when it made an appearance in the fall, broke down and regenerated, staying all winter.  The winter of 2013-14 for the NE was cold and snowy, relentlessly so.  Or that line may go right over us, meaning that sometimes cold, sometimes warm, but a lot of precip. 

What did the SST anomaly look like in 2013 versus today?

In the Atlantic, the 2013 has a cold spot NE of Iceland and warmth S of Iceland.  2016, those spots shifted SW.   And you can see clearly in 2013 there was no blob as of this week in Oct.  But that warmth S of the Aleutians makes its way over by the end of the month. The atlantic seems warmer, which may aid in ridging.  A stronger Atl ridge means that we either do a cold/warm pattern with storms or a dry warm pattern (as we are currently in).   You can also see its a bit cooler along the equator this year than in 2013.   The weak La Nina and warmer Atlantic are still weighing more heavily than the blob for me.  But its something to watch.

For more on the blob:

Monday, October 3, 2016

trend forecast dump page


1-23 nam precip trend dfg

1-20 gfs trend

1-8 12-29 gfs trend

Add caption

112-29 NAM track

12-29 gfs trends

12-17 storm

Otto Vis

OTTO Landfall

GFS forecast 12z 11-5

gfs trend for snow 10/28

99l toward maine/nova scotia

10-15 12z gfs

10-15 12z eur0

12z 4knam

6z gfs

12z gfs 850 vort

12z hwrf 500 mb

12z jma 10-5

12z trend for 0z sat

12z gfs trend for 0z friday

12z gfs trend for 0z thursday