12-18 wind rain storm

 Setup for this next storm is very interesting and involves 4, sometimes 5 parts. 

1 is a weird tropical like system. 3 will drop into 2 and merge.  3/2 will then grab 1. 4 is the steering mechanism. We've been waiting to see where 4 will be or if it further combines with the now 321 storm.

At this time, 4 seems to be separate. Maybe that forms another low once the cold air is in place and we can see a little snow. Surfacewise, it looks like this.

With a semi tropical system coming from the Gulf getting enhanced by another upper level system, there will be a lot of moisture and wind. 

Rainfall totals in the tristate likely exceed 3" and may get to 5"

6z GFS

6Z NAM

6z Euro on NY

Wind is also going to be a concern.  The last storm did produce 50+ mph gusts, though it was not widespread and focused on coastal locations. Due to different wind alignments, more mixing down of the winds may happen this storm and wind advisories and high wind warnings are up for the tristate and New England. Winds will be the highest from the Jersey Shore and Hudson river on east. NAM/GFS/Euro all in agreement with gusts in the 50kt range.

Euro gusts CT/LI/RI

NAM Gusts SNE

GFS gusts

This is the official map from Upton, but only goes to 7am Monday.

Coastal flooding is also an issue, though the moon was a crescent last night. This is a busy page from the NWS but at 3' above flood stage, it's pretty serious.  12-16' breakers on oceanfacing beaches. 3-6' breakers on the CT coast. Surge of 3.5 to 5ft possible. A lot depends on timing of the windshift either before or after low tide.  In addition, there's a lot of rain coming down the rivers still from last week, plus another 3+" of rain before the high tide will really bear watching along rivers.

HRRR trying to pinpoint those higher gusts. 75mph over central LI and 65mph over Newtown.

Officially widespread 50+ gusts reported 

with some 60's in RI/SEMA and unofficially in LI/CT on Wunderground stations

Plenty of 60s reported by the NWS including Stamford, Fairfield, Robbins Reef (66mph), Larchmont Harbor (64mph), Northport, Tappan Zee Light 14 had 65mph. 

Locally I had 2.8" of rain as of 8am, but it is still raining, and Oxford airport reported gusts in the 50s. Two trees uprooted, no power outage.  Danbury had 4.43, Oakland NJ had 5.24, Verona had 4.83, Ringwood had 5.1", Cornwall on the Hudson had 5.03".It was still raining at all these sites. 

Power outages were widespread with 83k in CT, 148k in Mass and over 100k in Maine so far. NH also has 40k but didn't make the top five.  Other states in the mid atlantic saw 10-20k in outages. 

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12-10/12-11 storm - no snow for us but rain/wind

12/12 Outcome:  Here's a map of the snow from the storm. As expected, mostly Catskills, ADKS, VT/NH with some in the Berks.  As not expected, some snow in VA, MD, SPA and SNJ on the back side did coat the ground.

Winds in the NYC area

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider

...Connecticut...

...Middlesex County...
3 ENE Moodus                 56 MPH    1040 PM 12/10   Mesonet

...New Haven County...
Stony Creek                  42 MPH    1037 PM 12/10   CWOP
Hammonasset                  41 MPH    1038 PM 12/10   WXFLOW

...New London County...
2 E Mystic                   45 MPH    1140 PM 12/10   Mesonet
4 ESE Mystic                 43 MPH    0615 PM 12/10   Mesonet

...New York...

...Nassau County...
Bayville                     47 MPH    0821 PM 12/10   WXFLOW

...Queens County...
Kew Garden Hills             48 MPH    0820 PM 12/10   NYSM
NYC/JFK Airport              41 MPH    0849 PM 12/10   ASOS

...Suffolk County...
2 ENE Shoreham               57 MPH    0220 AM 12/11   Mesonet
Great Gull Island            54 MPH    0156 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
1 WNW Northport              51 MPH    1019 PM 12/10   Mesonet
1 NW Montauk                 51 MPH    0130 AM 12/11   Mesonet

From Boston NWS

West Falmouth                57 MPH    0310 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
Chapin                       53 MPH    0422 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
Woods Hole                   52 MPH    0430 AM 12/11   CWOP
Hatch Beach                  51 MPH    1253 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
...Bristol County...
New Bedford AP               49 MPH    0436 AM 12/11   ASOS
Taunton AP                   46 MPH    0345 AM 12/11   ASOS
...Nantucket County...
Nantucket AP                 51 MPH    0754 AM 12/11   ASOS
Nantucket Harbor             49 MPH    0819 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
...Plymouth County...
Marshfield AP                52 MPH    0415 AM 12/11   AWOS
Hull YC                      52 MPH    0319 AM 12/11   WXFLOW
...Kent County...
RI TF Green AP               49 MPH    0331 AM 12/11   ASOS
...Washington County...
3 ESE Westerly AP            51 MPH    0635 AM 12/11   Trained Spotter

Rain did focus on CT with central and eastern CT getting the most

12/9.  This storm is from a potent low going through the lakes and a strong southerly jet 

being out in front of the front.  We'll see strong southerlies on Sunday, with possible gusts

 in CT of 35-60mph depending on where you are, higher out east and along the coast.  

NAM currently has the highest (12z Sat) but GFS and Euro had their moments of 50-60kts 

as far west as Oxford/Bridgeport.  The southerlies will provide for some coastal flooding 

as it's a new moon. 

The rain is also pretty impressive on the NAM.  Now this is overdone likely but is in line with where the heaviest rain will fall.  

The more sane and smoothed out NBS ensemble has it more of a widespread 2-3" event with some 4+ in areas though.  That's still pretty impressive. 

To our far North and West, (Catskills, ADK,  Berks, VT) the wind won't be as bad but there will be some snow coming in as the low redevelops and the cold air rushes in.  Normally I don't believe this one, but winter storm watches and warnings are out.  I'm going to go with the NBM look more than the NAM since storms with post frontal snows are pretty commonly modeled, but don't usually pan out, at least in the TriState.  But I could see snow accumulations in N PA, and possibly NW CT (outside of the areas already mentioned). 

Storm tracker

 Keeping a list of results of storm tracks starting Dec 1.

1-19 storm went to our south

1-16 storm went to our south

1-9 4" rain and high wind event

This storm was notable for gusts up to 75mph in WNY/PA and eastern New England. CT was spared power outages, but close to if not more than 500,000 were without power, including over 200k in PA and near 200k in NC and NY.

1-7 First snow storm. Sorta Miller A track

Dec 28th storm formed as a secondary from a storm that went through the plains and cut off.  Went up the coast and dumped 2.26" of rain imby, bringing December rain totals to 9" and reigniting floods, but otherwise was unnoteworthy.

Dec 18th storm tracked just a bit to our west.

Dec 9 storm well to our west, with front blowing through and low reforming along the front.

Dec 3 storm tracked to Eastern GL and reformed well off coast.