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Friday, January 30, 2009

12z Euro moves further to sea and almost misses altogether
Only Ukmet holds onto inland solution
Skiing in Catskills - be back monday

Groundhog day storm 1/30midday runs

Big shift to the east overnite.
EU has storm going from FL panhandle 0z tues to cape cod 0z wed which would mean mostly snow away from coast
Canadian has Hilton head 0z Tues, LI (990) 12z Tues, ME, 0z Wed = all snow west of Hudson river
Nogaps - 12z Tues OBX (1000), 0z Wed South of LI (988) 12z wed DXR (990), snow, rain snow
GFS 0z run had path from Charleston to LI (992) to W. Maine (988)
6z run had path from JAX, OBX (1004), east of AC (992), Springfield ma (984) for a Snow, rain , snow solution most of area
12z run had it further off the coast passing east of obx, ac into gulf of maine, much faster, all snow
6z GFS ensembles have a 996 low south of Islip, but have the 850 line dead middle of low so all snow
12z GFS Ensembles take it over the benchmark now!

So I am suspicious of this move east and want to see some consistency before I bite on the blizzard

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Groundhog storm - 1/29 model summary

European - 0z run through w. PA; 12z run richmond up just west of hudson
UK - savannah through central pa, 12z run richmond up just west of hudson (central gulf prior)
GFS - runs are shifting from up the coast from 6z run to west pa in 18z run
Nogaps - shifted east from 0z run over w va and w pa to baltimore, nyc
Canadian -0z atlanta, charlotte, central pa shifts to columbia to philly up hudson
dgex - 18z right through nj

Overall trend, all models but gfs trend east, gfs trends way west. Still mostly rain event for most of northeast, east of central pa.