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Friday, January 30, 2009

Groundhog day storm 1/30midday runs

Big shift to the east overnite.
EU has storm going from FL panhandle 0z tues to cape cod 0z wed which would mean mostly snow away from coast
Canadian has Hilton head 0z Tues, LI (990) 12z Tues, ME, 0z Wed = all snow west of Hudson river
Nogaps - 12z Tues OBX (1000), 0z Wed South of LI (988) 12z wed DXR (990), snow, rain snow
GFS 0z run had path from Charleston to LI (992) to W. Maine (988)
6z run had path from JAX, OBX (1004), east of AC (992), Springfield ma (984) for a Snow, rain , snow solution most of area
12z run had it further off the coast passing east of obx, ac into gulf of maine, much faster, all snow
6z GFS ensembles have a 996 low south of Islip, but have the 850 line dead middle of low so all snow
12z GFS Ensembles take it over the benchmark now!

So I am suspicious of this move east and want to see some consistency before I bite on the blizzard

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