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Thursday, August 25, 2016

Tropics reignite

9-1  Hermine gets its hurricane status - currently at 983mb and 80mph.  Obs in Tampa/Lakeland were 45mph gusts.  W Tampa buoy 42036 had 50kt sustained, gusts to 66kts.  24 ft waves.  Here is a look at 9pm before landfall.
 Tornados reported across Florida as expected.  Rainfall amts seem light though.

Radar pic at 9pm
Surge in big bend area should be pretty bad.  Locally they are predicting life threatening and historic. 7 feet on average with over 9 feet possible.
Still a lot of noise as to where this goes.  JMA still has it over us on next friday.

Euro keeps it right off the NJ/Del coasts as well.  This is one of the more scary wind gusts, keep in mind its in knots so 70kts is about 82 mph.  Problem is the 35mph winds start saturday afternoon along the shore and continue through Tuesday. And while it pulls offshore, it doesn't cross the 40/70 BM until Friday. 
18z GFS run starts the fun at the shore around noon on Saturday with 30+kt gusts. But crosses 40/70 by Tuesday afternoon, affecting LI/CT/RI/MA somewhat more than the Euro.

And then there's the crazy Canadian

Lastly, the wave heights from Wavewatch.

So the short of it is still to watch this.  It should stall and do wacky things, but pinpointing that is nuts.  And I'm wondering if this reaches cat two tonite. 

8-31 - TD8 moves out to sea - not becoming Hermine.  Gaston moves ENE and drops a few mph to 105.  Big story to follow is Hermine - boom or bust?

Hermine was finally classified today, and as of the 8pm advisory is at 50mph.  Its influence spans the Gulf, from Campeche to Florida.
Landfall in Florida looks like a sure thing.  Most likely in the big bend area, but NHC has it hitting near Apalachicola.  But just finding the center is a challenge still.  Once the actual center and pressure match the model initialization, I'll trust the short term solution.  Until then, Tampa to Apalachicola should watch this.

Where it goes from there is fascinating. Almost all model runs today had it being captured by an cut off UL and stalling.  Some inland, some out to sea, some along the coast.  This interaction would create more hybrid/transitional situation and could cause a hook left as did Sandy.

Euro gusts are scary - note these are 70-80 knots on the picture, which is closer to 80-90mph.  It loops it around off the coast once it gets past NC. 

 GFS is a little less scary, more west - 50kt gusts as it pops out over sea around V Beach and hooks back over NJ. 
CMC takes it mostly inland, then stalling over NJ along the coast, then moving out to sea.  Its surface winds not impressive, though the 850's are in the 70mph range.

JMA moves it inland to OBX, camps it farther off NJ, for three days, before sending it north.
HWRF gains its sanity and takes a 983 low into Apalachicola, then off NC and loops it around grazing Cape Cod.
GFDL hits Apalachacola and goes to oBX, does a spin around Delaware Bay as it fades.  Actually little wind at all.
NAVGEM konks it out over Delmarva.

We'll see what happens in the morning with the models vs. reality. This morning the NAM 4k had this going to a 929 lp.  Its back to 950 now.  

8-29  First, that wasn't Fiona, but could have some of Fiona's energy.  The crazy Canadian was nearly onto something too - however, there is about 25kts of shear where this storm is located, so convection forms around the center of TD8, but blows off . There's Gaston to its east, an ULL to its SW which are contributing to the higher velocity winds aloft.

Gaston peaked at 105kts last night.  Its sitting there spinning, upwelling too.

And TD9 (formerly 99L) continues to have problems, but might actually get its act together with this latest burst, as it pulls away from Cuba

8/25 After a month of doldrums, Fiona formed and dissipated (but the CMC still has it hitting OBX!)

Gaston formed and became a hurricane
And there's a lot of interest in I99L which has struggled around Hispaniola yesterday and this morning.  GFS fails to develop this, but Euro takes it over southern florida and up the west FL coast to a 975 low in the panhandle.  HWRF outdoes itself with a 949 LP heading towards NOLA on the 30th.  Winds upward of 120mph.  
GFDL has a LP along a similar track but keeps it open and at 1003, which is odd considering the environment. NAVGEM has it going up eastern FL at 1008, as does JMA.  UKMET has it as a weak 999 low near Mobile.
Meanwhile, Gaston should weaken then strengthen.  How close it comes to Bermuda is worth watching.  Euro, GFDL and HWRF is way east and really strong.  GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and JMA are further west.  Close enough for Bermuda to monitor.  Either way, some good swells should finally form in the Atlantic.