9-1 Hermine gets its hurricane status - currently at 983mb and 80mph. Obs in Tampa/Lakeland were 45mph gusts. W Tampa buoy 42036 had 50kt sustained, gusts to 66kts. 24 ft waves. Here is a look at 9pm before landfall.
Radar pic at 9pm
Euro keeps it right off the NJ/Del coasts as well. This is one of the more scary wind gusts, keep in mind its in knots so 70kts is about 82 mph. Problem is the 35mph winds start saturday afternoon along the shore and continue through Tuesday. And while it pulls offshore, it doesn't cross the 40/70 BM until Friday.
And then there's the crazy Canadian
Lastly, the wave heights from Wavewatch.
So the short of it is still to watch this. It should stall and do wacky things, but pinpointing that is nuts. And I'm wondering if this reaches cat two tonite.
8-31 - TD8 moves out to sea - not becoming Hermine. Gaston moves ENE and drops a few mph to 105. Big story to follow is Hermine - boom or bust?
Hermine was finally classified today, and as of the 8pm advisory is at 50mph. Its influence spans the Gulf, from Campeche to Florida.
Where it goes from there is fascinating. Almost all model runs today had it being captured by an cut off UL and stalling. Some inland, some out to sea, some along the coast. This interaction would create more hybrid/transitional situation and could cause a hook left as did Sandy.
Euro gusts are scary - note these are 70-80 knots on the picture, which is closer to 80-90mph. It loops it around off the coast once it gets past NC.
JMA moves it inland to OBX, camps it farther off NJ, for three days, before sending it north.
HWRF gains its sanity and takes a 983 low into Apalachicola, then off NC and loops it around grazing Cape Cod.
GFDL hits Apalachacola and goes to oBX, does a spin around Delaware Bay as it fades. Actually little wind at all.
NAVGEM konks it out over Delmarva.
We'll see what happens in the morning with the models vs. reality. This morning the NAM 4k had this going to a 929 lp. Its back to 950 now.
8-29 First, that wasn't Fiona, but could have some of Fiona's energy. The crazy Canadian was nearly onto something too - however, there is about 25kts of shear where this storm is located, so convection forms around the center of TD8, but blows off . There's Gaston to its east, an ULL to its SW which are contributing to the higher velocity winds aloft.
Gaston peaked at 105kts last night. Its sitting there spinning, upwelling too.
8/25 After a month of doldrums, Fiona formed and dissipated (but the CMC still has it hitting OBX!)
Gaston formed and became a hurricane